Weekly charts (09th to 13th November 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (09th to 13th Nov 2020)

Spot Weekly – 12720 [ 12769 / 12367 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is that of a Trend Up one with overlapping Value at 11574-11820-11928 but the immediate reference in the coming week would be Friday’s POC of 12245 & the daily VPOC of 12073 as this week’s imbalance of 723 points could lead to a balance being formed in Nifty

Nifty continued the imbalance of prevoius week with a big gap up open on Monday as it went on to make new ATH (All Time High) of 12452 in the IB (Initial Balance) and expectedly saw some profit booking along with new supply coming in which pushed the auction lower even leading to mutiple REs (Range Extension) but the similar lows of 12367 indicated seller exhaustion which led to a fresh move on the upside resulting in a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) Day as new highs of 12474 was tagged into the close. Tuesday saw a rare follow up to the NeuX profile as Nifty made another big gap up and remained above PDH (Previous Day High) to continue the strong momentum to the upside as tagged 12644 while spiking into the close and followed it up with another higher open on Wednesday where it made a large 113 point range hitting new highs of 12769. The demand finally seemed to have dried up as Nifty could not make a RE higher and sellers took advantage of this fact and drove the auction down almost doubling the large IB range as it made lows of 12571 taking support at Tuesday’s POC from where it gave an equally quick retracement back to 12760 and settled down just above the dPOC of 12733 at close. Thursday open saw a rejection from this dPOC as Nifty left a small selling tail in the IB and probed lower as it filled up previous day’s low volume zone and in the process left poor lows at 12625 and closed at the prominent POC of 12685 of the picture perfect Gaussian Profile for the day. The poor lows were repaired with a gap down open on Friday but the prominent POC of 12685 acted as a magnet as the auction completed the 80% Rule in previous Value in a big C side extension but once again got stalled at Wednesday’s POC of 12733 leaving yet another balanced profile on the daily with an overlapping POC at 12685. The weekly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 12576-12684-12738 looking like a composite ‘p’ and would need initiative volumes to move away here in the coming week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 12744 for a probe to 12780 / 12830 / 12885 / 12940 / 12995 & 13056
B) Accepting below 12710 could lead to a test of 12655-617 / 12571 / 12520 / 12474-432 & 12375

NF (Weekly Profile)

12753 [ 12774 / 12376 ]

NF opened the week with a big gap up of 132 points and went on to make new ATH on Monday as it hit 12485 ending as a well balanced Normal Day after which it continued the trend of giving a gap up open for the next 2 days as it opened higher by 115 points on Tuesday, took support at PDH and gave a big move of 185 points on the upside while tagging new highs of 12667 and followed it up with another higher open on Wednesday as it hit 12764 in the IB but saw considerable contraction of range as well as volumes in the ‘B’ period which hinted at poor trade facilitation or weakening of demand and this led to a huge liquidation move as the auction dropped to 12577 and took support at previous day’s VWAP attracting good demand which not only forced the shorts to cover but formed new highs for the day at 12774 in the ‘L’ period leaving a Neutral Day with the dPOC shifting higher to 12738. The last 2 days of the week then remained in this Neutral Profile forming a balance and filling up the low volume zone giving a nice 3-day composite with a prominent POC at 12808. This week’s Value was completely higher at 12584-12708-12752 and the close near the VAH means the PLR for the coming week would be on the upside provided the magnet of 12708 is negated.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (09th to 13th Nov 2020)
Spot Weekly – 28465 [ 29031 / 27069 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated one thanks to the huge range of 2733 points with Value at 24120-25500-26080 and there is good chance of this week’s imbalance leading to a balance being formed in the coming week

BankNifty showed no intentions of slowing down as it opened with a gap up on Monday and continued the imbalance on the upside forming Value above previous week’s high and then left a late extension handle at 27453 spiking higher into the close to 27595. Tuesday not only saw another big gap up of 505 points but was also an Open Drive Up as the auction went on to rise by a further 750 points to record new highs for the month but left a small selling tail from 28735 to 28802 which hinted that the upmove may finally be ending. BankNifty then made an Open Auction start on Wednesday and took support at previous Value before negating the selling tail as it went on to make new highs of 28956 in the ‘A’ period after which it made 2 attempts to make a RE (Range Extension) higher in the ‘C’ & ‘D’ periods but was rejected back into the IB both times which confrimed that the demand was finally weakening and the shorts siezed this opportunity to expediate the probe lower resulting in a RE lower which in turn confirmed a FA at day’s high of 29031. The auction then made a trending move lower in the afternoon as it not completed the 1 ATR objective of 28363 from the FA but went on to make lows of 28211 but left a buying tail from 29349 to 28211 which marked the end of the leg down for the day and triggered a short covering bounce back to 28898 before closing the day at 28845 and in the process shifted the dPOC higher to 28785. Thursday open confirmed that the bounce of the previous afternoon was just an inventory adjustment move as BankNifty not only opened lower, away from the yPOC of 28785 but also left an initiative selling tail from 28476 to 28673 in the IB as it went on to form a ‘b’ shape profile for the day after making lows of 28066. This leg down continued on Friday with a second successive lower open followed by a drive down in the ‘A’ period as the auction made lows of 27703 almost hitting the 2 ATR objective of 29699 from the FA of 29031 as it tested the huge zone of singles of 10th Nov which was from 28146 to 27534 taking support there as it left a buying tail in the IB which confirmed the end of the move down. BankNifty then probed higher in the C period where it made a large range of 400 points and remained in this TPO till the ‘H’ period before it left a fresh extension handle at 28240 in the ‘J’ period and went on to make new highs of 28520 for the day stopping right at the base of previous day’s selling tail.

The weekly profile resembles a DD (Double Distribution) with a tiny lower distribution with the HVN at 27208 and a much bigger balance in the upper part formed over the last 4 days with the prominent POC at 28410. Value for the week was completely higher at 28050-28410-28970 and the PLR for the coming week remains to the upside as long as BankNifty stays above 28410.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 28477 for a probe to 28660 / 28785 / 28900 / 29031 & 29130
B) Accepting below 28410, the auction could test 28240 / 28140 / 28050 / 27958 & 27782

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 29130, BankNifty can probe higher to 29242 / 29322 / 29492 / 29612 / 29791 & 29840
D) Below 27782, lower levels of 27650 / 27555 / 27453 / 27287 / 27208 & 27060 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

28512 [ 28999 / 27021 ]

BNF opened the week with a gap up of 300 points and continued it’s relentless march on the upside with another big gap of almost 500 points on Tuesday followed by new highs of 28999 being tagged on Wednesday as it made a failed RE attempt in the ‘D’ period but could not sustain above the IBH which indicated that the demand was finally getting exhausted and the break of VWAP further confirmed this fact as the auction went on to make a RE lower establishing a FA at top which vaidated the end of the upside probe. BNF then made 2 successive gap down opens on Thursday & Friday it auctioned lower in search of buyers and in the process completed the 2 ATR objective of 27712 from the FA of 28999 to the dot which marked the end of the downmove as demand started to come back and gave an aggressive pullback to 28568 before closing the week at 28512. The weekly Value was completely higher at 28028-28420-28756 and staying above this week’s POC, the PLR would remain on the upside but BNF will need to take out the daily VPOC of 28842 & the FA of 28999 in the coming session(s).