Weekly charts (10th to 14th August 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (10th to 14th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 11178 [ 11373 / 11111 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘the PLR for the coming week remains higher till Nifty stays above 11190 with immediate targets of the weekly VPOC of 11277 & the 1 ATR objective of 11333. On the downside, acceptance below 11190 and the break of 11159 could lead to a test of the daily VPOCs of 11116 & 11045

Nifty opened higher this week tagging the weekly VPOC of 11277 and took support just above previous week’s VAH of 11232 as it made a low of 11238 on Monday and went on to complete the 1 ATR objective of 11333 from the weekly FA of 10882 forming a narrow range day with the open & close both at 11270. Tuesday saw another gap up open which in turn resulted in new highs of 5 months being formed at 11373 but the day ended with yet another narrow range of just 74 points which was the third lowest since 12th Feb 2020 indicating poor trade facilitation at these new highs as for the second day running the open & close was same at 11322. The auction then opened lower on Wednesday and took support once again just above the weekly VAH as it made a higher swing low of 11242 in the IB (Initial Balance) to form a third consecutive day of a narrow range balance with a close at the prominent POC of 11309. Nifty opened above this POC on Thursday and probed higher but could not get above Tuesday’s VAH leaving poor highs in the IB at 11358 confirming exhaustion on the upside and resulted in a range extension lower as it made lows of 11270 and once again closed near the developing 4-day composite POC of 11310. The auction continued to build Value in this composite on Friday as it once again stalled at Tuesday’s VAH and left one of the lowest IB range of a mere 32 points after which it made a RE lower in the C & D periods to tag 11311 taking support right at that prominent POC to give a quick move higher as it made an attempt to probe above IBH but could only tag 11366 where it got rejected and this triggered a huge liqiudation move as Nifty made a fresh RE lower confirming a FA at top and left an extension handle at that important level of 11311 confirming that sellers had taken over contol as it fell by 200 points from there to leave yet a weekly extension handle too at 11238 as it not only got back into previous week’s Value but went on to tag the weekly POC of 11190 in a flash after which it made lows of 11111 tagging even the daily VPOC of 5th Aug. Nifty did give a small bounce back to 11197 before closing the week at 11178.

Value for the week was completely higher at 11283-11313-11355 but has closed in an imbalance lower in form of a spike from 11238 to 11111 which would be the reference for the coming week with 11185 being the immediate reference on the upside. Nifty has a small buying tail from 11152 which will be the level to watch on the downside below which it could probe lower towards the VPOC of 11045, the extension handle of 10993 and the buying tail of 10945 of 4th Aug.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11185 for a rise to 11238-283 / 11311-366 & 11391
B) The auction staying below 11178 could test 11152-127 / 11080 / 11045*-025 & 10993-969*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11391, Nifty can probe higher to 11437-449 / 11499 & 11537-582*
D) Below 10969, the auction can fall further to 10923 / 10882 & 10834-806**

NF (Weekly Profile)

11187 [ 11397 / 11111 ]

NF not only opened well above previous week’s HVN of 11200 but stayed above the weekly Value and probed higher in the first half on Monday even making a RE higher but got stalled just below the daily swing high of 11339 as it tagged 11335 and reversed the probe to the downside as it got back into previous week’s Value and made a RE to the downside but was rejected from 11242 as it left a small buying tail at lows and confirmed a multi-day FA on Tuesday as it opened higher and looked set to tag the 1 ATR objective of 11391 as it made a high of 11376 in the IB but could not extend higher indicating lack of demand and made multiple REs lower taking support at previous day’s POC as it made a low of 11302 before closing the day at 11344. Wednesday saw a big gap down open of more than 100 points as NF tagged new lows for the week at 11231 but was swiftly rejected as it met fresh buying which got further confirmation as it left an extension handle at 11277 and probed higher all day to hit 11338 leaving a Double Distribution Trend Day Up. This imbalance continued on Thursday open as NF tagged 11362 in the IB but made a failed attempt to make a RE in the ‘D’ period which marked the end of the upside probe resulting in a long liquidation fall to 11267 and confriming a FA at 11366 as it tested previous day’s extension handle but for the third time in the week got rejected from previous week’s Value to close higher at 11317 which was also the developing as well as prominent POC for the week which was in a narrow range of just 146 points. The auction opened above this POC on Friday but made a high exactly at the FA of 11366 in the IB leaving one of the narrowest IB range of just 36 points as it seemed both the buyers & sellers wanted to test each other. NF made a C side extension where it made lows of 11320 but got rejected as that composite POC was still being defended and this led to a rare spike in the middle of the day as the auction made new highs for the week at 11397 but could not sustain above IBH for more than 30 minutes which was an indication that these new highs were being used to sell aggressively which got more obvious when the VWAP was taken out in the ‘J’ period after which NF left an extension handle at 11320 breaking below the composite POC with initiative activity triggering a fall of more than 200 points in the next 3 periods as it left a second extension handle near previous week’s VAH and went on to make lows of 11111 before closing the week at 11187. This week’s Value was completely higher at 11288-11310-11360 but poor trade facilitation led to a move away from this balance in form of a weekly spike from 11231 to 11111.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (10th to 14th Aug 2020)
Spot Weekly – 21679 [ 22440 / 21459 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced one with mostly lower Value at 21360-21550-21780 and a prominent HVN at 21590 which could act as a magnet in the coming week unless we get an initiative move away from here. On the upside, staying above 21780 BankNifty could probe higher to 21930 & the weekly VPOC of 22090 abd above it the selling tail of 22346 to 22668. On the downside, staying below 21760 the auction could complete the 80% Rule in this week’s Value

BankNifty opened with a gap up on Monday and stayed above previous week’s Value indicating the start of a fresh imbalance to the upside as it made new highs for the month in the IB itself where it tagged 22072. However, the auction remained in this IB range all day forming a Gaussian profile with a failed attempt to probe lower in the ‘J’ period which was rejected at 21795 as it closed the day at 21900 leaving a prominent POC at 21993. Tuesday saw another gap up open along with an OL (Open=Low) start which reconfrimed that the PLR was to the upside and even confrimed a multi-day FA at 21795 as the auction made new highs for the week at 22239 in the IB but once again could not extend the range on the upside like the previous day which led to yet another failed attempt to make a RE lower in the ‘F’ period where it got rejected from 22040 where it confirmed a new FA as it made a small spike higher into the close almost tagging the 1 ATR objective of 22290 from 21795 before closing the day at 22227. BankNifty opened lower on Wednesday and continued to probe down as it negated the FA of 22040 and went on to tag Monday’s prominent POC of 21993 taking support right there as it left a buying tail in the IB indicating return of demand resulting in yet another higher high of 22326 being hit as it closed at 22264 which was the highest closing price for the month. The auction continued the trend of making higher highs on daily on Thursday too as it opened higher and went on to hit 22440 in the IB but was stuck in the narrowest IB range just 83 points in almost 15 months after which it left similar highs at 22432 which was a sign that the upside move was getting exhausted. BankNifty then left a Double Distribution Trend Day down on thursday as it left an extension handle at 22334 and went on to make a low of 22139. Friday saw a higher open but also an OH (Open=High) start right at previous day’s extension handle indicating that the sellers were very much active as a selling tail was also confirmed in the IB from 22228 to 22335 after which the auction made couple of REs lower in the C & D periods but saw some of the demand returning in Wednesday’s buying tail as it left a PBL (Pull Back Low) and got back into the IB and probed higher testing the tail at top but similar to Thursday left poor highs this time at 22245 which was also the VAL of previous day’s DD making it clear that the supply was getting more aggresive and this led to a huge fall in the second half of the day as BankNifty first left an extension handle at 22082 and then went on to break 21990 triggering a move back into previous week’s Value as it went on to tag the prominent HVN of 21590 while making a low of 21459 before giving a small bounce in the last 45 minutes as it closed the week at 21679.

The weekly Value was completely higher at 21960-22310 with a prominent POC at 22190 but like Nifty, the auction has closed far away from the Value giving a Neutral Extreme profile with the reference for the next week from 21795 to 21459.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21685 for a probe to 21795-850 / 21903-975 / 22082-190 / 22245-335 & 22390*
B) Staying below 21670, the auction could test 21575 / 21460-420 / 21370-300 / 21244-184 / 21093-021 & 20953

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22390, BankNifty can probe higher to 22433-500 / 22570-626 / 22670**-760 / 22842-947 & 23027*-122
D) Below 20953, lower levels of 20880 / 20774-640 / 20570-445 / 20390 & 20211* could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21669 [ 22444 / 21436 ]

BNF moved away from previous week’s Value with a gap up open on Monday and formed higher highs on the first 4 days of the week as it tagged 22444 on Thursday but it marked the end of the upside probe as the auction left an extension handle at 22320 and ended up as a Double Distribution Trend Day down. Friday open saw the auction open higher but getting stalled at 22318 right below previous day’s extension handle as it continued to form a balance in the lower distribution for the first half of the day. BNF then made a late RE lower in the ‘I’ period as it first left a daily extension handle at 22110 and then a weekly one at 21802 to trend lower getting back into previous week’s Value and almost completed the 80% Rule as it made lows of 21436 before closing the week at 21669. The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down with completely higher Value at 22010-22185-22350 and the reference for the next week open would be from 21436 to 21802.