Weekly Charts (12th to 16th April 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Apr 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14618 [ 14697 / 14248 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated one of 525 points extending previous week’s Range & Value at both sides with the larger time frame continuing the balance it has been forming since past 4 weeks which is also seen in the overlapping Value of this week at 14631-14853-14895. The daily VPOCs of 14937 & 14986 along with the positional reference of 15052 would be the levels to watch on the upside for the coming week it Nifty gets accepted above 14853 whereas on the downside, staying below 14814 the auction has importantant references at 14774, 14654 & 14609′

Nifty opened lower this week with a big gap of 190 points and still managed to confirm an Open Drive Down as it broke below 14609 in the A period itself where it left a huge 268 point range and continued to probe lower all day after confirming a long initiative selling tail from 14511 to 14652 after which it not only made new lows for the month but also broke below the daily VPOC of 14317 from 25th Mar as it made a low of 14248 in the ‘L’ period but the selling looked to be stretched as the auction left a small tail at lows and closed around the dPOC which had shifted lower to 14328 and more confirmation of this came on Tuesday as Nifty left a buying tail in the IB (Initial Balance) and remained in previous day’s Value but tested Monday’s selling tail with a spike higher into the close to 14529. Both Value & Range formed an inside bar giving a 2-day composite ‘b’ shape profile with the POC at 14328 as the auction continued to probe deeper into the selling tail at open on Thursday but got rejected after making a high of 14567 triggering a OTF (One Time Frame) probe lower till the E period where it made a low of 14353 and this defense of the composite POC of 14328 meant that the demand was present in this zone which led to a reversal in the day’s auction leading to a trending move of 244 points as Nifty hit 14597 into the close resulting in a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) Day Up. Friday open saw a test of the lows of NeuX zone of 14566 to 14597 as the auction left a buying tail in the IB from 14559 to 14624 and went on to make new highs for the week at 14669 and made a C side extension higher as it hit 14690 but could not extend any further as it made a similar high of 14688 in the ‘E’ period indicating exhaustion in the upmove and this triggered a liquidation move in the ‘F’ period leading to a test of the morning singles after which Nifty settled down to form a ‘p’ shape profile for most part of the day before making another RE in the ‘K’ period where it made new highs of 14698 but once again could not sustain above the IBH resulting in yet another sharp liquidation move of more than 100 points into the close. Value for the day was completely higher with a prominent POC at 14655 but the close below VAL means a Neutral close on the daily timeframe whereas on the weekly, we have a kind of a DD (Double Distribution) profile with completely lower Value at 14301-14433-14511 with Nifty closing well above the same. The immediate reference for the coming week would be 14655 on the upside above which the auction could probe higher towards the weekly VPOC of 14853 & the daily VPOC of 14937 with 14740 being a minor hurdle in the path where on the downside, Nifty would remain weak below 14630 and a break below 14559 could bring in a test of the lower VPOCs of 14433 & 14328.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 14631 for a probe to 14700 / 14740 / 14809 / 14853 / 14895 / 14937 & 14986
B) Accepting below 14616 could lead to a test of 14559 / 14511 / 14433 / 14401 / 14328 / 14283 & 14249

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 14986, can expect higher levels of 15052 / 15120 / 15153 / 15196 / 15262 / 15303 & 15340
D) Below 14249, the auction could fall to 14214 / 14160 / 14110 / 14060 / 14018 & 13906

NF (Weekly Profile)

14646 [ 14733 / 14282 ]

NF opened the week with a big gap down of 200 points and continued to drive lower falling by another 408 points on Monday as it made new lows of the series at 14282 but closed as a ‘b’ shape profile with the dPOC also shifting lower to 14359 indicating lack of fresh selling and also that the move lower was more because of long liquidation. The auction then made a slow probe higher for the next 3 days as it started to negate the initiative selling tail of 14531 to 14889 but remained in Monday’s range till the IB on Friday and made multiple attempts to extend higher but could only tag 14733 stalling just below the previous month’s POC of 14737 and left a balanced profile with the narrowest daily range in April of just 151 points and a prominent POC at 14682 for the day. The weekly profile has completely lower Value at 14322-14434-14546 and has a HVN at 14595 which would be the first zone of support in the coming week.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (12th to 16th Apr 2021)
Spot Weekly – 31977 [ 32325 / 30520 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a composite ‘b’ shape with a selling tail from 33307 to 33698 with an ultra prominent POC at 32655 which would be the immediate reference on the upside in the coming session(s). Value for the week was completely lower at 32445-32655-32985 with the close being right at the lower end which means the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) continues to be to the downside but this week’s small buying tail from 32330 to 32141 in the earlier initiative demand zone of 31730 to 32301 could act as support for now and would need to be overcome’

BankNifty overcame that initiative demand zone of 31730 to 32301 in form of a huge gap down of 810 points on Monday where it made a high of 31698 in the A period and trended lower for most part of the day falling by another 1178 points making a low of 30520 in the ‘K’ period and stalling just above the weekly VPOC of 30480 and gave a bounce into the close to 30925 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile with the dPOC shifting lower to 30734. The auction then gave an initiative move on the upside from this POC on Tuesday as it left a buying tail in the IB trapping the late shorts of Monday as it formed a ‘p’ shape profile for the first half of the day before giving a buying extension handle at 31360 in the ‘J’ period which meant that the short covering was not followed up by fresh buying as BankNifty went on to negated previous day’s selling tail and made new highs for the week at 31885 and continued this imbalance with a higher open on Thursday as it went on to make a high of 32114 in the ‘A’ period and saw good profit booking along with fresh supply coming in which was confirmed by a selling tail in the IB from 31904 to 32114 as the auction made an OTF probe to the downside till the ‘E’ period but left a PBL (Pull Back Low) at 31406 indicating that the buyers were keen to defend the extension handle of 31360. This led to a fresh leg to the upside for the rest of the day resulting in new highs of 32187 for the day and once again the imbalance got carried over to the next open where BankNifty made new highs for the week at 32325 marking the end of the imbalance as the rest of the day saw a balance being formed in the narrow A period range of just 413 points leaving a Gaussian profile and a Normal Day with a prominent POC at 32055 with a close below the dPOC for the first time this week. The weekly profile has formed completely lower Value at 31155-32085-32235 after giving a good bounce from 30520 but still has part of the weekly selling tail from 32448 to 32242 that needs to be taken out for the probe to continue higher towards the weekly VPOC of 32655 in the coming week. On the downside, the auction remains weak below 32055 and could probe lower towards the daily VPOCs of 31775 & 31240 with the extension handle of 31360 as support in between.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs a drive from 32055 for a rise to 32235 / 32330 / 32428 / 32565 / 32693 / 32829 & 32934
B) Accepting below 31920, the auction could test 31775 / 31690 / 31530 / 31360 / 31240 / 31115 & 31029

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 32934, can expect higher levels of 33035 / 33161 / 33330 / 33490 / 33580 / 33675 / 33872 & 34002
D) Below 31029, the auction could fall to 30903 / 30734 / 30625 / 30480 / 30319 / 30172 / 30033 & 29980

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

32075 [ 32439 / 30610 ]

BNF also opened with a huge gap down of almost 800 points and continued to trend lower as it left initiative selling singles from 31370 to 32617 falling by another 1290 points as it broke below the 1st Feb lows of 31024 and went on to hit 30610 before giving a bounce closing the day right at the dPOC of 30847 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile. The auction then gave a move away from this POC on Tuesday on the upside leaving a buying extension handle at 31467 on Tuesday which was succesfully defended on Thursday and resulted in new highs of the week at 32439 at open on Friday but the entry into last Friday’s singles was met with rejection as BNF left a small selling tail at top but remained in the A period range of 453 points all day leaving a Normal Day and a Gaussian profile with a prominent POC at 32142. The weekly profile has completely lower Value at 31230-32175-32265 and the POC which has shifted higher would be the immediate reference for the coming week on the upside whereas on the downside, this week’s HVN of 31845 would be the first reference.