Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (13th May to 17th May)
Nifty saw a lot of 2 sided auction this week giving Neutral Days on the first four days of the week leaving a FA (Failed Auction) on all of the four days and finally ended the week with a Trend Day Up giving a Neutral Extreme profile on the weekly where the Neutral Extreme reference for the next week would be 11300 to 11426. Nifty opened on a weak note on Monday & that weakness was further confirmed as it gave a FA at 11300 and went on to tag the 1 ATR move down on the same day. Nifty looked set to tag the 2 ATR move lower at 11063 too as it made a new low on Tuesday at 11108 but was met with rejection & went on to confirm a FA there which triggered a good bounce as it tagged the 1 ATR move up on the same day. On Wednesday, Nifty opened strong but was not able to make new highs inspite of multiple attempts to extend the range to the upside & left a third FA of the week & this time at highs of 11278 and spiked lower into the close tagging the 1 ATR move of 11152 as it made a low of 11137. Thursday saw Nifty attempting another move lower but as happened all week, this range extension lower also got rejected as it left a fourth FA in 4 days at 11143 and then went on to tag the 1 ATR move of 11268 on the same day. Friday saw Nifty leaving a buying tail in the IB for the first time in the week and though it made a late range extension the auction kept probing higher all day and not only completed the 2 ATR move of 11393 from 11143 but also tagged the 1 ATR move higher from the negated first FA of the week at 11300 which was at 11416 which was also a vPOC. The Value for the week was mostly lower but the close was way above VAH so will have to check if Price pulls Value higher in the coming week or the Value pull price lower. The weekly Value is 11158-11254-11294.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11450 for a move to 11485-503 / 11550-557 & 11571-613
B) Immediate support is at 11393 below which Nifty can test 11340-313 / 11290-285 / 11252-236
C) Above 11613, Nifty can probe higher to 11657-665 & 11720-742
D) Below 11236, lower levels of 11198-181 / 11158 & 11131-124 could get tagged
E) If 11742 is taken out & sustained, Nifty can have a fresh leg up to 11773 & 11797
F) Break of 11124 could bring lower levels of 11089-078 & 11055-049
Election Results Hypos:
11827-882 / 11936-973 / 12050-100 / 12211-266 / 12320 / 12375-430
11025-10995 / 10921 / 10896-869 / 10815-765 / 10747-713 / 10661-609
NF (Weekly Profile)
NF had a very volatile week closing with a spike on all 5 days reflecting the increasing levels of VIX as we move closer to the election results. The auction opened weak on Monday & trended lower making a low of 11138 inside the IB on Tuesday from where it gave a good bounce and in fact made new weekly highs also at 11338 but was rejected and then made a trading range between 11155 and 11305 on the next 2 days as NF made 2 opposite Neutral Extreme profiles on Wednesday & Thursday making a 4-day composite and on Friday it moved away from this Composite with a Trend Day leaving a Neutral Extreme profile for the week with the Neutral Extreme reference being 11338 to 11448 and the VWAP of Friday which is at 11351 an important reference for the coming week. The weekly Value is 11157-11280-11298
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (13th May to 17th May)
BankNifty continued the weakness post last week’s DD (Double Distribution) getting accepted below previous week’s Value for most part of this week making new lows for the first 4 days of the week and in fact even confirmed a weekly FA at 29058 on Tuesday (14th May) after which it made a low of 28525 on Thursday where it confirmed a FA on daily time frame not only stalling the move down but also went on to tag the 1 ATR move up of 28926 on the same day. BankNifty then for the first time in the week gave a initiative move at open to continue probing higher as it extended the large IB of 183 points on the upside negating that weekly FA of 29058 and tagged the 2 ATR move up of 29327 from the previous day’s FA. It went on to leave a Trend Day Up just before the important week ahead as BankNifty entered the singles of the previous week’s DD profile and swiftly ran through the zone of 29243 to 29528 to give a Neutral Extreme profile for the week. The Neutral Extreme reference for the next week would be 29050 to 29559 but the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) is firmly up for a move to tag the weekly VPOC of 29690 and above it the 1 ATR of 29889 from the negated weekly FA of 29058. Immediate support would be the zone of 29240-205. The weekly Value is 28660-28955-29020.
Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to stay above 29499-530 for a move to 29585-630 / 29690-713 / 29760-835
B) Immediate support is in the zone of 29335-29325 below which could test 29240-205 / 29145 / 29058-020
C) Above 29850, the auction can probe higher to 29930-970 / 30045-63 / 30120-190
D) Below 29020, BankNifty can probe down to 28955-920 / 28855-815 / 28730
E) If 30190 is taken out, higher levels of 30270-278 & 30411-440 could come into play
F) Break of 28730 could trigger a move lower to 28664-612 & 28545-525
Election Results Hypos:
30538-625 / 30713-890 / 30976-31065 / 31153-202 / 31330 / 31415-500
28396-344 / 28247-225 / 28140-055 / 27966-890 / 27815-713 / 27606-555
BNF (Weekly Profile)
BNF gave a Neutral Extreme Profile on the weekly after making lower Value for the first four days of the week and even confirmed a weekly FA at 29198 on Tuesday giving a 1 ATR target down at 28384 and continued to probe lower as it made a low of 28571 on Thursday where it took support & reversed the auction leaving an extension handle at 28708 to give a big trending move up as it rose by more than 1000 points from the lows getting into the previous week’s DD singles of 29419 to make a high of 29590 on Friday which was a Trend Day Up which negated that weekly FA of 29198 opening the probability of a 1 ATR move now to the upside which would come to 30012 in the coming week. The Neutral Extreme reference for the coming week would be 29198 to 29590 & the immediate support would be the pull back low & Trend Day VWAP of 29199-188 and the immediate reference on the upside would be the extension handle of 29649. The weekly Value is 28720-29016-29080
