Weekly Charts (15th to 19th February 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th Feb 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14981 [ 15431 / 14898 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The range for this week was very narrow at just 280 points after previous week’s huge move of 1353 points as it formed a nice balance with completely higher Value at 15065-15115-15191 and an ultra prominent POC at 15115 so just as the imbalance led to a balance this week, there is a good chance of the auction returning to imbalance in the coming week’

Nifty opened the week with a big gap up of 107 points above previous week’s high and formed a narrow range ‘p’ shape profile for most part of the day with a prominent POC at 15308 before it spiked higher into the close tagging new ATH of 15340 indicating that the shorts were being forced to cover. The auction open with another gap up on Tuesday as it continued to probe higher hitting new highs of 15431 in the ‘A’ period but settled down into an OAOR (Open Auction Out of Range) displaying poor trade facilitation at these new highs as it left a very narrow IB range of just 66 points and continued to coil further in the C & D periods where it left a PBH (Pull Back High) at 15413 after which it made a RE (Range Extension) lower in the ‘E’ period and then left an extension handle at 15332 triggering a big liquidation move till the ‘J’ period as it not only got back into previous day’s range but went on to make new lows for the week at 15242 before closing right at the dPOC of 15313. Wednesday saw an OAIR start as Nifty got rejected twice from the yPOC of 15313 indicating that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was to the downside leading to new lows 15171 as it left a Neutral Profile for the day and followed it up with a Double Distribution Trend Day Down on Thursday where it first formed a narrow Initial Balance of just 51 points with a 2-day overlapping POC at 15223 after which it left an ‘E’ period extension handle at 15199 as it got back into previous week’s well balanced Value Area almost completing the 80% Rule as it made a low of 15078 and closed right at that ultra prominent weekly POC of 15115. The auction opened lower on Friday as it probed below the weekly Value while making new lows at 15029 and left a buying tail in the IB as it got back into the weekly Value initiating the 80% Rule on the upside getting back to that magnet of 15115 but then made the dreaded C side extension higher where it hit 15144 but was swiftly rejected which meant that the supply was still pesistant as Nifty left another selling extension handle at 15029 confriming a FA (Failed Auction) at top and probed lower hitting 14898 and in the process completed the 1 ATR objective of 14921 which was also around the VPOC of 5th Feb before giving a bounce to close at 14982.

The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme one to the downside with yet another prominent POC at 15305 and has overlapping to higher Value at 15125-15305-15415 though the close has been well below the Value. The extension handle of 15029 would be the immediate level to watch on the uspide in the coming week above which the higher references would be the FA af 15144 & the VPOC of 15223 for a probable probe towards 15305 and on the downside, Nifty would remain weak below 14977 and could go for a test of the weekly VPOC of 14810 and the FA of 14714.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 15020 for a probe to 15074 / 15111 / 15144 / 15199 / 15223 / 15270 & 15305
B) Accepting below 14977 could lead to a test of 14943 / 14885 / 14834 / 14795 / 14743 / 14682 & 14641

NF (Weekly Profile)

14987 [ 15430 / 14900 ]

NF has formed a Neutral Extreme profile on the weekly timeframe with overlapping to higher Value at 15108-15303-15408 as it gave a range expansion on both sides while probing higher on Monday and opening with a gap up on Tuesday making new ATH of 15430 which also marked the end of the upmove as the auction build volumes at 15395 which was distribution and made Trending move lower for the rest of the week as it left a hat-trick of Neutral profiles along with couple of FAs at 15255 & 15145 which expediated the fall to 14900 on Friday before it closed the week at 14987.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th Feb 2021)
Spot Weekly – 35841 [ 37708 / 35584 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile as expected formed a nice balance in a narrow zone of just 1049 points as it remained in the 5th Feb profile’s range for most of the 5 days staying below the upper rejection of 36520 to 36615 and has a small buying tail from 35531 to 35428 at the lower end too which would be the bigger references for the coming week as Value was mostly inside at 35685-36015-36165′

BankNifty opened the week with a Drive Up above the weekly Value leaving an initiative buying tail from 36640 to 36405 and went on to leave a Trend Day Up rising by more than 1000 points on Monday as it made new ATH 0f 37450 and continued this imbalance on Tuesday with a gap up open as it made new highs of 37708 in the ‘A’ period but left a small selling tail from 37625 to 37708 in the IB along with an extension handle at 37480 indicating end of this upmove. The auction then made multiple REs to the downside negating all the buying extension handles of the previous day as it went on to tag the Trend Day POC of 36768 taking support there and closing the day at 37098 leaving a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile. BankNifty then formed an inside bar on Wednesday where it left a PBH at 37331 and made similar lows of 36764 taking support once again at Monday’s POC and continued this balance on Thursday open but left the second initiative selling tail for the week in the IB from 36974 to 37108 which meant that the PLR was firmly to the downside. The auction then made multiple REs lower once again as it not only broke below the 36768 level effectively but left a fresh extension handle at 36685 and went on to negate the Monday’s buying tail of 36640 to 36405 while forming new lows for the week at 36367 where it left similar lows and closed the day around the dPOC of 36587 leaving a Double Distribution Down profile. BankNifty then opened with a gap down on Friday reparing the poor lows of previous day as it hit new lows for the week at 36124 but got rejected from the weekly VAH as it left a buying tail in the IB and got back to the yPOC of 36580 but then made the dreaded C side extension higher where it tagged 36656 but was swiftly rejected from just below the extension handle of 36685 indicating that the sellers were back and put up a strong fight against the morning buyers who finally gave up late in the afternoon as the auction made a RE to the downside and left an extension handle at 36024 and in this process confirmed a FA at top and went on to complete the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value completing the dual objective of hitting the 1 ATR target of 35719 too from the FA as it made lows of 35585 before closing the day & week at 35842.

The weekly profile is a Neutral Extreme Down one with completely higher Value at 36495-36915-37305 and the first reference on upside would be the immediate extension handle of 36044 wheras on the downside, accepting below 35635 would mean the weakness in BankNifty could continue in the coming week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty sustaining above 35950 could rise to 36044 / 36280 / 36495 / 36685 / 36865 / 37060 & 37331
B) Accepting below 35810, the auction could test 35625 / 35440 / 35190 / 34908 / 34789 / 34617 & 34371

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

35850 [ 37770 / 35570 ]

BNF started the week with a Trend Day Up and continued the imbalance at open on Tuesday where it hit new highs of 37770 from where the auction reversed the probe to the downside leaving a huge 2200 point fall into Friday where it closed the week at 35850 leaving a Neutral Extreme Down week with completely higher Value at 36510-36960-37410. The immediate reference for the coming week would be the extension handle of 36053 above which the yPOC of 36378 and the FA of 36680 could come into play.