Weekly Charts (15th to 19th March 2021) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th Mar 2021)

Spot Weekly – 14744 [ 15051 / 14350 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile inspite of making higher highs on all 4 days seems like a long liquidation one with completely inside Value at 14940-15006-15120 and has a prominent POC at 15006 which would be the reference in the coming week’

Nifty made an Open Drive Down on Monday with a OH (Open=High) start at 15048 as it continued previous week’s liquidation move with an initiative move away from previous week’s Value & Range in the IB (Initial Balance) and continued to probe lower till the ‘H’ period tagging the 2nd Mar VPOC of 14847 and making a low of 14746 stopping just above the lower VPOC of 14744 from 1st Mar and this defense led to a short covering bounce into the close as the auction got back into previous week’s Range & Value leaving a PBH (Pull Back High) at 14961 and continued this imbalance with a gap up on Tuesday after which Nifty made the dreaded C side extension making marginal new highs for the week at 15052 but could not extend any further confirming exhaustion forming similar highs of 15047 in the ‘D’ period. The PLR (Path of Least Resistance) then turned lower not just on the daily timeframe but the weekly too as the auction confirmed a Neutral Extreme Down Day with a close around the lows on Tuesday and continued this probe lower on Wednesday as it remained below the yPOC of 14986 and formed lower Value before spiking lower into the close as it hit new lows for the week at 14696 and in the process even confirmed a weekly FA (Failed Auction) at 15052. Nifty opened with a gap up on Thursday rejecting the spike close of 14765 to 14696 but on the upside it again got rejected from the yPOC of 14858 as it left a small selling tail at top in the IB and formed a narrow range balance between 14860 & the spike high of 14765 with a prominent dPOC at 14794 for the first half of the day. The ‘H’ period then started a fresh move to the downside with the help of an extension handle at 14758 as the auction swiped through the spike and left another extension handle at 14706 in the ‘I’ period after which it went on to make new lows for the month revisiting & breaking below the 01st Mar FA of 14638 extending the fall to 14478 in the ‘K’ period where it took support right at the top of the invisible buying tail of 14481 to 14281 from 02nd Feb before closing the day at 14558 leaving a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down. Friday started with a continuation of this downside probe as Nifty not only opened lower but made went on to get into that buying tail and made lows of 14350 in the ‘A’ period but gave a good bounce to 14519 in the ‘B’ period as it left a fresh buying tail from 14406 to 14350 indicating that the post Budget Day buyers were back in action. More confirmation of the buyers taking control for the day came with 2 successive REs (Range Extension) to the upside immediately post IB as the auction made new highs for the day at 14643 where it stalled at previous day’s DD singles of 14649 to 14757 and gave a retracement lower to 14494 in the ‘G’ period leaving a PBL (Pull Back Low) there as the buyers gained back the control and made a OTF (One Time Frame) move higher into the close where it not only negated the DD selling tail but almost tagged the yPOC of 14794 before closing the week at 14744.

The weekly profile is an elongated one to the downside with mostly lower Value at 14673-14787-15039 with a FA at top and a buying tail at lows from 14406 to 14350. The daily VPOCs of 14794 & 14986 woud be the references on the upside for the coming week whereas on the downside the levels on watch would be 14702 & 14579 along with the PBL of 14494.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 14794 for a probe to 14861 / 14930 / 14986 / 15052 / 15120 & 15196
B) Accepting below 14702 could lead to a test of 14639 / 14579 / 14494 / 14406 / 14336 & 14288

NF (Weekly Profile)

14756 [ 15082 / 14371 ]

NF gave a move away from the prominent weekly POC of 15043 on Monday as it trended lower for the first half of the day & tagged the FA of 14776 from Mar 2nd which was now a positional reference and as expected held this level after making a low of 14771 triggering a massive short covering move into the close as the auction bounced back to 15014 and extended this upmove on Tuesday with a gap up open and followed it up with a C side RE higher as it made new highs for the week at 15082 but as expcted, the C side once proved to be a ‘Dhoka’ period which resulted in the reversal of the probe to the downside not just for the day but till the gap down open on Friday in between which NF left a Neutral Extreme Down Day on Wednesday confirming a daily FA at 14981 along with a weekly FA at 15082 followed by a DD to the downside on Thursday as it made new lows for the week at 14506 almost completing the 2 ATR objective from 14981. The auction continued this imbalance on Friday with a gap down and new lows for the week in the A period at 14371 as it stopped just above the VPOC of 14367 from the Trend Day of 01st Feb taking suport in this old demand zone which reversed the probe to the upside for the rest of the day as NF went on to tag the main extension handle of 14795 from Thursday’s DD as it left a PBH at 14805 before closing the week at 14756. The weekly Value was mostly lower at 14686-14833-15064.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (15th to 19th Mar 2021)
Spot Weekly – 34161 [ 35544 / 33361 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly range was mostly inside previous week but the Value formed slightly higher at 35355-35715-36045 so the auction continues to be in the balance mode with 35718 being the immediate reference on the upside along with the extension handles at 35988 & 36163 whereas on the downside, the zone to watch would be from 35350 to 35250 below which this week’s poor lows of 35090 and the daily VPOC of 34857 could come into play’

BankNifty continued the downside imbalance which began last Friday with a Trend Day as it opened with a big Drive Down on Monday after making an OH (Open=High) start at 35544as it not only repaired the poor lows of 35090 of last week but went on to tag that lower VPOC of 34857 in the A period itself and continued to make an One Time Frame probe lower till the ‘E’ period where it made a low of 34445 completing a 1000 point drop and finally looked like the selling is subsiding and more confirmation of exhaustion came in the ‘G’ & ‘H’ period where it made marignal new lows of 34443 & 34430 but could not sustain and this led to a big short covering bounce into the close as the auction not only got back into the IB (Initial Balance) but even pierced through the morning selling tail of 34984 to 35544 while making a high of 35265 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile for the day. This bounce continued on Tuesday as BankNifty opened higher and tagged 35405 but left a small selling tail in the IB indicating that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) had once again turned to the downside and resulted in a late RE (Range Extension) lower from the ‘H’ period onwards and for the second day running it made similar lows of 34749 & 34744 before closing the day at 34804 leaving a prominent POC at 35111. Wednesday saw a lower open as for the third day, the auction left a selling tail in the IB but made the dreaded C side extension which triggered another short covering move leading to a big RE in the ‘E’ period which inturn confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) at 34629 but the upmove got stalled at 35100 just below the yPOC of 35111 and the F period got back into the IB which meant that this move was only to take the weak sellers out as the second half of the day trended lower making multiple REs as that FA got negated in the ‘H’ period bring in new lows for the week as the day closed in a spike lower from 34435 to 34126 and in the process hit the weekly VPOC of 34305. Neutral Extreme profiles most of the times do not give a follow up and this was seen on Thursday where BankNifty made a gap up open and probed higher in the IB but repeated the same auction as previous day getting rejected from the yPOC of 34745 as it made a high of 34760 and made a C side RE lower testing the NeuX zone of 34435 to 34126 which stalled the down move resulting in a narrow range balance being formed for the first part of the day turning into an imbalance from the ‘H’ period onwards where it left an extension handle at 34405 and made new lows for the week at 33597 in the ‘K’ period before closing the day at 33857 leaving a DD (Double Distribution) Trend Day Down. Friday opened with a gap down as the auction tested the invisible buying tail of 33589 to 33089 it had left post the Trend Day Up on 01st Feb and found the buyers coming back in this zone as it reversed the template of the week first with a buying tail in the IB from 33440 to 33361 and then with multiple REs to the upside as it got into the DD singles and went on to make a high of 34355 almost tagging that extension handle of 34405 before closing the week at 34161.

The weekly profile is a trending one down with completely lower Value at 34110-34500-35370 and resembles an incomplete DD which it could complete in the coming week if stays below 34405. On the upside, the references would be the daily VPOCs of 34513 / 35111 & 36233.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs a drive from 34200 for a rise to 34405 / 34513 / 34640 / 34745 / 34875 / 35014 & 35111
B) Accepting below 34110, the auction could test 33985 / 33820 / 33675 / 33555 / 33440 / 33339 & 33131

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

34205 [ 35544 / 33380 ]

BNF made an OD (Open Drive) down on Monday with a move away from last Friday’s POC of 35556 as it broke below the HVN of 34875 in the A period itself and continued the OTF move lower for the first half of the day but made similar lows in the zone of 34475 to 34455 indicating exhaustion and this led to a short covering bounce to 35494 at open on Tuesday where it once again left a selling tail indicating that the sellers were gaining back the control though it closed as an inside day both in terms of range & value. The auction then made a trending move to the downside over the next couple of days with the help of a Neutral Extreme Day Down on Wednesday where it confrimed a FA at 35184 and then a DD Trend Day Down on Thursday resulting in new lows for the week at 33668 after it left an extension handle at 34462. Friday saw a continuation of this probe lower at open as it hit 33380 in the ‘A’ period but held the buying singles of 2nd Feb marking the end of the downside for the week as it left a PBLs at 33499 & 33394 to make a high of 34450 stopping just below the extension handle of 34462 before closing the day at 34205. Value for the week was completely lower at 334110-34800-35415.