Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th June to 21st June)
Nifty opened this week with a OH (Open=High) at exactly the previous week’s VAL (Value Area Low) of 11844 indicating that the PLR is still to the downside after the weekly FA of 12000 got confirmed last week. The auction tagged the 1 ATR move down of 11725 on Monday afternoon & continued to probe lower as it made a low of 11657 starting the week with a Trend Day Down which also marked the end of the imbalance which started last week. Nifty then balanced for the remaining part of the week taking support just above the weekly buying tail of 11615 to 11409 as it made a low of 11625 on Wednesday after which it probed higher on Thursday to once again get rejected at the previous week’s VAL of 11844. Friday saw the auction making an inside day with a close around the weekly POC of 11712 as Nifty completed the weekly balance with Value completely lower at 11676-11712-11772 and leaving a weekly VPOC at 11894. Nifty needs to open & sustain above 11712 in the coming week for a move first to 11772 and above it can attempt to tag 11894. Staying below 11712, the auction would remain weak.
Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):
A) Nifty needs to get above 11773-797 for a move to 11827-845 & 11881-894
B) Immediate support is at 11719-712 below which the auction can test 11685-676 & 11641
C) Above 11894, Nifty can probe higher to 11916-936 & 11960
D) Below 11641, lower levels of 11614-611 & 11576-557 could be tagged
E) If 11960 is taken out & sustained, Nifty can have a fresh leg up to 11991-12000 & 12032-46
F) Break of 11557 could bring lower levels of 11515-503 & 11461-449
NF (Weekly Profile)
NF opened the week below previous week’s Value & gave a Trend Day Down on Monday as it tagged the 1 ATR of 11749 from previous week’s FA of 12023 as it made a low of 11685 and followed it up by making lower lows on the next 2 days as it tagged 11630 but was swiftly rejected from there to indicate that the downside could be done. The auction then went on to give a Trend Day Up on Thursday as it made new weekly highs of 11863 but could not close above previous week’s VAL. Friday saw the market consolidating making an inside day and completing a nice balance on the weekly with a 3-1-3 Neutral profile (has small tails at both ends) which has closed near the weekly POC and could give a move away from there in the coming week. The weekly Value was completely lower at 11703-11739-11802.
BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th June to 21st June)
BankNifty opened the week with a Trend Day Down on Monday as it continued the imbalance to the downside that began last week completing the 1 ATR move of 30389 from the weekly FA of 31399 and went on to make lows of 30249. The auction made new lows of 30239 at open on Tuesday but did not find any further follow through to the downside suggesting that the move lower could be done as BankNifty almost formed an inside day but for the spike down it gave as it made a marginal new low at 30223 which was swiftly rejected. Wednesday saw BankNifty opening with a gap up confirming a multi-day FA at PDL (Previous Day Low) and it probed higher tagging the 1 ATR move up but got resisted around the spike high of 30711 it had left on last Friday and the auction reversed to the downside and gave a trending move down all day as it made a low of 30242 but left a small tail at lows again showing that the auction is getting exhausted at these lower levels. On Thursday, BankNifty made yet another probe lower in the A period to make new weekly lows of 30220 and this look down which was swiftly rejected re-confirming that there was nothing left on the downside as the auction then formed a Trend Day Up going past that spike high of 30711 and making new weekly highs of 30824 as it probed into previous week’s Value. Friday saw BankNify making a balance after the 600 point up move as it remained inside previous day’s range leaving a nice Gaussian profile on the daily with a prominent POC at 30666 from where it could give a move away in the coming week. The weekly profile made completely lower Value but the range has been the lowest in 10 weeks plus has closed above this week’s VAH (Value Area High) indicating that the PLR in the coming week could be to the upside towards the weekly VPOC of 30975. This week’s Value is 30310-30370-30610.
Weekly Hypos for BankNifty (Spot):
A) BankNifty needs to stay above 30666 for a move to 30720 / 30770-805 & 30870-890
B) Sustaining below 30625-610, the auction can re-test 30550-515 / 30450 & 30370-362
C) Above 30890, BankNifty can probe higher to 30975-980 / 31035-65 & 31124-153
D) Below 30362, lower levels of 30310-275 / 30220-190 & 30105-100 could come into play
E) If 31153 is taken out, BankNifty could rise to 31241-265 / 31330-350 & 31405-418
F) Break of 30100 could trigger a move lower to 30040-15 / 29970-930 & 29850-840
BNF (Weekly Profile)
BNF opened below the weekly extension handle of 30665 and continued the probe down it began last week as it broke below previous week’s low of 30504 to make a low of 30306 on Monday and closed around the lows indicating more downside could come. The auction then made new lows of 30200 on Tuesday which held for the week as BNF started to balance and got resisted exactly at that 30665 on Wednesday as it made a high of 30663 and this triggered another rotation down as the auction made a low of 30214 where it got rejected. Thursday saw BNF leaving a Trend Day Up as it got above 30665 and went on to make highs of 30809 probing into the previous week’s Value where it was met with resistance. Friday was an inside day with the auction completing the weekly balanced profile with non-overlapping & lower Value but the close was around the weekly Value Area High so PLR (Path of Least Resistance) for the coming week would be up till BNF stays above 30656. This week’s Value is 30368-30512-30656.
