Weekly Charts (17th to 20th November 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th to 20th Nov 2020)

Spot Weekly – 12859 [ 12963 / 12730 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 12576-12684-12738 looking like a composite ‘p’ and would need initiative volumes to move away here in the coming week

Nifty opened the week with a huge 212 point gap up but also made an OH (Open=High) start at 12934 as it left a selling tail in the IB (Initial Balance) and probed lower in an attempt to close the gap and made a low of 12797 forming a ‘b’ shape profile for the day but closed right at the base of the morning singles which meant the selling seen was more of profit booking and closure of old business. Wednesday formed a balance for most part of the day in previous day’s Value but ended up as a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) Day as the auction made new highs of 12949 after attempt to probe lower failed indicating once again the absence of any strong sellers. NeuX profiles do not tend to give any follow up and this was witnessed on Thursday as Nifty made a gap down open of almost 100 points but took support at the overlapping VAL (Value Area Low) of the previous 2 days from where it probed higher in the IB to get back into the NeuX zone and even scaled above it as it tagged 12960. The auction then looked like forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day as the range continued to contract but a failed attempt to make a RE (Range Extension) on the upside in the ‘G’ period confirmed buying exhaustion and triggered a huge long liquidation move as Nifty confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) at 12963 and went on to tag the 1 ATR objective of 12811 while making a low of 12745 as it took support just above previous week’s Value leaving the second successive NeuX profile of the week. Friday saw yet another instance of no follow up to NeuX as Nifty opened higher but got rejected from previous day’s Value and made couple of RE’s lower in the first half of the day tagging new lows for the week at 12730 but once again was rejected from previous week’s VAH of 12738. This rejection then led to a hat-trick of Neutral profiles as the auction made a successful RE on the upside though the close unlike previous 2 days was not at the extreme but at the VAH. The weekly profile is a well balanced Neutral Centre one with completely higher Value at 12780-12846-12894 and needs an initiative move away from this week’s prominent POC to signal return of imbalance.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 12865 for a probe to 12945 / 12995 / 13056 / 13117 & 13168
B) Accepting below 12840 could lead to a test of 12780 / 12720 / 12684 / 12617 & 12571

NF (Weekly Profile)

12871 [ 12976 / 12744 ]

NF opened the week with a gap up moving away from previous week’s prominent POC of 12694 and ended up as a Neutral Centre profile for the week after the upmove was stopped by the confirmation of a FA at highs of 12976 on Thursday which led to a big liquidation move lower to 12744 on Friday where it took support at previous week’s Value before closing the week just above this week’s prominent POC of 12858. The weekly profile is a well balanced one with completely higher Value at 12782-12858-12896 and would require initiative volumes for a move away from this balance in the expiry week.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (17th to 20th Nov 2020)
Spot Weekly – 29236 [ 29785 / 28581 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a DD (Double Distribution) with a tiny lower distribution with the HVN at 27208 and a much bigger balance in the upper part formed over the last 4 days with the prominent POC at 28410. Value for the week was completely higher at 28050-28410-28970 and the PLR for the coming week remains to the upside as long as BankNifty stays above 28410

BankNifty not only made a gap up open this week but confrimed a FA at 28723 on Tuesday which triggered a 1000+ points move higher into Wednesday as it not only completed the 1 ATR objective of 29436 from the FA but closed in a spike higher to 29785 stalling just below the swing high of 29791 it had left on 2nd March 2020. This spike got rejected on Thursday as the auction opened lower and filled up the low volume zone of previous day while building volumes at 29531 from where it gave a late move to the downside leaving an extension handle at 29229 as it made lows of 28820 giving yet another spike close. BankNifty opened in this spike on Friday getting accepted which led to further downside as it probed lower in the first half of the day resulting in the re-visit of the FA of 28723 as new lows for the week was formed at 28581 in the ‘E’ period after which it could not extend lower leading to a short term balance as the auction built volumes around 28900 and gave a move away on the upside in the last part of the day as it made highs of 29407 before closing the day just above the extension handle of 29129. The weekly profie is a Neutral one with mostly higher Value at 28720-28900-29380 and staying above this week’s POC of 28900, BankNifty could fill up the low volume zone till 29400 first and above it could go for the daily VPOC of 29531 in the coming session(s). On the downside, acceptance below 28880 could lead to more weakness resulting in a probe towards the weekly VPOC of 28410 & daily VPOC of 28060.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 29245 for a probe to 29380 / 29531 / 29627 / 29755 / 29930 & 30022
B) Accepting below 29160, the auction could test 29070 / 28900 / 28738 / 28640 / 28550 & 28410

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

29245 [ 29790 / 28562 ]

The auction in BNF this week was divided equally in the holiday shortened 4-day period as it probed higher for the first 2 days after opening with a gap up on Tuesday at 28750 and confirmed a daily FA at 28707 after which it made a trending move higher till close on Wednesday as it closed in a spike while making a high of 29790. However, this spike was rejected on Thursday confirming the end of the upmove after which it left poor highs in the IB at 29608 which further indicated buyer exhaution and triggered a fresh probe to the downside till Friday afternoon as BNF not only revisted the FA of 28707 in ‘T+3’ Days but made new lows for the week at 28562 and the shifting of the dPOC lower meant that the shorts have booked out and this led to a bounce in the second half of the day as the auction went on to make multiple REs on the upside as it tagged 29412 before closing the week at 29245. The weekly profile looks like a composite ‘b’ shape with the POC shifting lower around the base at 28924 with Value completely higher at 28728-28924-29344.