Weekly charts (19th to 23rd October 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (19th to 23rd Oct)

Spot Weekly11930 [ 12018 / 11776 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile looks like a developing DD (Double Distribution) as Nifty gave a move away from the 3-day balance and the composite POC of 11937 it was forming with a small selling tail from 11822 to 11790 below which it formed the mini balance on Friday. Value for the week was overlapping to higher at 11823-11937-12003 and the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) remains to the downside as long as the extension handle of 11872 & PBH of 11914 are not taken out. On the downside, we have the HVNs of the previous week’s Trend Up profile at 11593 & 11528 as important references

Nifty opened the week with a big gap up of 116 points negating the small selling tail of 11822 to 11790 of previous week’s profile as it made a high of 11892 in the IB and took support right at the weekly VAL of 11823 forming a nice Gaussian Profile with a prominent POC at 11852. The auction them gave a move away from this POC on Tuesday as it drove higher in the ‘A’ period leaving a buying tail in the IB and made couple of range extensions as it tagged the weekly POC of 11937 leaving a ‘p’ shape profile for the day with completely higher Value. Wednesday saw another higher open as Nifty gave another drive like move in the ‘A’ period and just like the previous day had left a buying tail in the IB while marking new highs at 12018 in the ‘B’ period stalling just below the weekly FA of 12025 which was an expected supply point. Nifty was unable to extend any higher and started to form the second ‘p’ shape profile of the week but a late afternoon move in the ‘I’ period triggered a big fall of more than 200 points as the auction not only got back into previous day’s range but went on to make new lows for the week at 11776 taking support just above previous week’s lower distribution and the daily VPOC of 11761. Nifty then left a small but important buying tail at lows in the ‘K’ period which further validated the fact the the downside probe was done with leading to a quick retracement to 11955 which confirmed a weekly FA at lows. The imbalance of previous day led to a balance on Thursday as the auction remained below 11955 but took support once again at the weekly VAL of 11823 carving a nice Bell Curve for the day with a prominent POC at 11903. Friday saw the third gap up open of the week as Nifty climbed back above 11955 but could not tag the daily VPOC of 11991 but stayed above previous Value to shape the narrowest daily range from over 2 months of just 66 points closing the week at 11930.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly profile with Value at 11841-11895-11937 is a well balanced one with both the Range & Value prevailing inside previous week. On the smaller time frame, the auction is stuck between the 2 daily VPOCs of 11903 & 11991 whereas on the larger composite we have a balance being forged over the last couple of weeks with 2 weekly FAs of 11776 & 12025 marking the extremes and there is a strong possibility of Nifty moving away from this zone in the coming week(s).

Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs a drive above 11937 for a probe to 11991 / 12042-102 / 12152-230 & 12265-295
B) Accepting below 11930 could lead to a test of 11895-835 / 11776-730 / 11667-615 & 11559

NF (Weekly Profile)

11934 [ 12017 / 11767 ]

NF opened higher this week taking support right above the bearish extension handle of 11817 which set up the probe for upside for the first 3 days of the week as it went on to make new highs of the series at 12017 on Wednesday but left a FA there which led to a huge liquidation move as the auction almost tagged the prominent VPOC of 11765 where it closed last week and met with good aggressive buying to climb back to 11949 closing as a Neutral Day which confirmed a weekly FA at 11767. The last 2 days of the week filled up the low volume zone leaving a hat-trick of Neutral profiles as the auction closed the week at 11934 with Value completely inside previous week at 11848-11894-11938 and seems to be stuck between the 2 daily VPOCs of 11890 & 11985.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (19th to 23rd Oct)

Spot Weekly – 24478 [ 24823 / 23755 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘Value for the week was higher at 23370-23550-23990 as the auction seems to be forming a balance over the bigger time frame which could continue in the coming week with the 2 HVNs of 23255 and 23888 being the immediate references to watch for volume or range expansion in either direction

BankNifty not only opened with a large gap up of 369 points on Monday but gave a Drive higher along with it, establishing an initiative move away from the higher HVN of 23888 as it left a buying tail from 23941 to 23755 in the IB where it almost matched the previous week high of 24190. The auction then made a C side extension making a marginal new high of 24200 from where it got rejected right from 1st Sep highs setting off a move lower till the ‘F’ period where it left a PBL at 23962 taking support just above the morning singles which suggested that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) was on the upside. BankNifty then probed higher giving a small spike into the close and continued this slow probe on Tuesday where it made new highs for the month at 24411 and displayed fresh momentum at open on Wednesday as it launched the second Open Drive in 3 days and trended higher for the first couple of hours which saw it tag the 31st Aug extension handles of 24469 & 24747 while making a high of 24819 in the ‘D’ period pausing below that initiative selling of 24918 to 25233. The day’s developing profile had a long initiative buying tail from 24683 to 24333 and the auction was forming a balance in a narrow range of less than 150 points which included a failed attempt to probe higher in the ‘G’ period where it made a marignal new high of 24823 which implied exhaustion and this in turn resulted in a major liquidation move as BankNifty nullified the entire rise from open and went on to make an emotional low of 24099 where aggressive buying emerged pushing the auction back to 24705. This imbalance then culminated in a balance being formed on the last 2 days of the week as BankNifty filled up the low volume zone of the Wednesday’s profile with a 3-1-3 composite with a close right at the prominent POC at 24480. Value for the week was completely higher at 24160-24480-24600.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 24480 for a probe to 24575-650 / 24730-771 / 24850-918 / 25035-120 & 25200
B) Accepting below 24415, the auction could test 24350-260 / 24180-099 / 24027 / 23941-888 & 23810-720

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 25200, BankNifty can probe higher to 25296-368 / 25441-522 / 25601-681 / 25760-841 & 25923
D) Below 23720, lower levels of 23640-560 / 23475-420 / 23370-255 / 23180-100 & 23001 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

24537 [ 24880 / 23786 ]

BNF opened with a big gap up well above the HVN of 23730 continued to probe higher for the first half of the week as it negated the 31st Aug extension handles of 24475 & 24650 and went on to make a high of 24880 where it showed signs of exhaustion and some good profit booking at 24800 levels which brought a quick fall to 24102 after which the auction formed a balance in this 700 point range for the rest of the week building volumes at 24525 where it eventually closed on Friday. This week’s Value was completely higher at 24206-24528-24626.