Weekly charts (22nd to 26th June 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (22nd to 26th June 2020)
Spot Weekly – 10244 [ 10272 / 9726 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘the 3-week composite giving a nice Gaussian profile with Value at 9874-10105-10207 which could further extend on the upside if Nifty is able to sustain above 10207 & get above 10290 for a probe towards that weekly VPOC of 10446 in the coming week

Nifty opened higher but formed a balanced profile above previous week’s high on Monday but importantly confirmed a daily FA (Failed Auction) at 10277 which meant that the PLR (Path of Least Resistance) remained on the upside. The next day then made a trending profile higher as the auction tagged the weekly VPOC of 10446 while making a high of 10484 and continued this imbalance with a gap up on Wednesday which not only completed the 1 ATR objective of 10497 but saw Nifty completing the 80% Rule in the 2-day balance of 9th and 11th March 2020 (click here to view the MPLite chart), the week from where a new fall had began. However, it got stalled at 10553 leaving one of the most narrow IB range of just 48 points which indicated poor trade facilitation and exhaustion of demand which led to the confrimation of yet another FA at 10553 and the auction promptly probed lower making a big 5 IB day down as it compled the 1 ATR target of 10340 and went on to make lows of 10282 taking support just above the first FA of this week. This time the imbalance to the downside continued in the form of a gap down as Nifty tagged the VPOC of 19th June taking support at 10194 from where it got swiftly rejected to leave an initiative tail right from the 3-week composite Value after which the auction made a balanced profile while making multiple highs in the 10355-360 zone before closing the day at 10289. Friday saw a gap up open of 90 points but once again the auction made a narrow IB range of just 55 points as it got rejected exactly from Friday’s VAL of 10407 but could not extend much on the downside as it made a low of 10311 before spiking higher into the close as it made marginal new highs of 10410 before closing the week at 10383 with one of the lowest daily range of just 99 points.

The weekly profile is a well balanced Neutral Centre one with completely higher Value at 10275 to 10410 along with a prominent POC at 10355 and saw the narrowest weekly range since 20th Feb 2020 of just 359 points so there is a very good chance that the aucion could start a fresh leg of imbalance in the coming week(s).

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the 3-week composite on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 10410 for a rise to 10460 / 10527*-560 / 10609-661 / 10713-780 & 10813-869
B) The auction staying below 10355 could test 10311-269 / 10203-149 / 10110-050 / 10005 & 9942-15**

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 10869, Nifty can probe higher to 10903*-973 / 11025-082 / 11131-154 & 11236-262**
D) Below 9915, the auction can fall further to 9816 / 9767-07 / 9658-04 & 9544-06

NF (Weekly Profile)

10318 [ 10516 / 10156 ]

NF continued the late imbalance of previous week as it started with an OL (Open=Low) start at 10232 on Monday and probed higher for the first half of the week as it hit 10516 on Wednesday but confirmed a daily FA there to trigger a quick move lower till Thursday morning as it made new lows for the week at 10156 and confirmed another daily FA here marking the lows for the week.

The weekly profile is a well balanced one with FA’s at both ends and a narrow & bulging Value Area at 10224-10290-10332 which was completely higher compared to the last 3 weeks. A big move from here is possible in the coming week(s) provided the auction negates one of the 2 daily FAs of this week.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (22nd to 26th June)
Spot Weekly – 21592 [ 22479 / 20926 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘the auction will need to sustain above 21456 to continue forming Value higher and a probable probe towards the VPOCs of 21603 & 21853 above which we have the positional reference of 21967 (FA from 30th April which has not been tagged) and the 1 ATR target of 22303 from this week’s FA. Immediate support is at 21244 staying above which also confirms a rare monthly FA in BankNifty and the 1 ATR objective of the same comes at 22615. However, accepting below 21244 could lead to a probe towards the current month’s developing POC of 20932

BankNifty made a higher opening on Monday leaving an initiative buying tail above 21456 which confirmed that the PLR is on the upside as it continued to probe higher tagging the vpocs of 21603 & 21853 and even negated that positional FA of 21967 while making a high of 22078 where it left poor highs indicating short term exhaustion which led to a retracement of 500 points as it closed the day around the prominent POC of 21675. The auction made another gap up open on Tuesday but probed lower in the IB (Initial Balance) as it tagged previous day’s prominent POC and got rejected leaving yet another initiative buying tail from 21772 to 21645 which set up for a fresh probe on the upside after forming a ‘p’ shape profile for most part of the day before it spiked into the close making new highs for the week at 22322 & thereby completing the 1 ATR target of 22303 from the weekly FA of 19507. This imbalance continued the next day as BankNifty opened with a gap up of more than 200 points but made an OH start at 22479 and for the first time in the week left a selling initiative tail in the IB which meant that the PLR is now to the downside and Wednesday turned out to be a Trend Day Down making new lows for the week at 21336. The auction continued the probe lower on Thursday as it opened below 21244 and promptly went on to tag this month’s POC of 20932 as it made lows of 20926 but for the third time 4 days left a buying tail in the IB which meant covering of shorts & return of demand. BankNifty formed a balance for the next 2 days with an overlapping POC at 21490 with a perfect Gaussian profile on Friday after getting rejected from Wedenesday’s VAL

We have a 3-1-3 profile on the weekly with completely higher Value at 21370-21470-22000 but the close right in the middle of profile and the tails at both ends suggest that BankNifty could remain in this range and continue to form a balance on the higher time frame in the coming week with the prominent POC of 21470 in focus.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21610 for a probe to 21755 / 21892*-996* / 22048-191 / 22295-381 / 22501-575 & 22634-726
B) The auction accepting below 21570 could test 21490-364 / 21240-135 / 21085 / 20987-8800 / 20774-640 & 20570-540

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22726, BankNifty can probe higher to 22796 / 22875-953 / 23040-138* / 23180-333 / 23449-565 & 23640-716
D) Below 20540, lower levels of 20445-320 / 20211* / 20100-031 / 19890*-780 / 19648-507 & 19450 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21462 [ 22488 / 20900 ]

BNF has also formed a 3-1-3 weekly profile with tails at both ends & a balance in between with higher Value at 21359-21866-22087.