Weekly charts (28th September to 01st October 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (28th Sep to 01st Oct 2020)

Spot Weekly – 11050 [ 11535 / 10790 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile resembles a Triple Distribution Down over a big range of 745 points with Value completely lower at 10929-11163-11319. Nifty could attempt to fill up the low volume zone of 10930 to 11160 in the coming week with 10990 being the immediate reference on the downside

Nifty opened higher this week completing the 2 ATR objective of 11168 from the FA of 10855 in the IB (Initial Balance) on Monday as it left a buying tail from 11141 to 11099 indicating that the PLR would be on the upside and it continued to probe higher making multiple REs (Range Extension) closing the day around the highs of 11239. This imbalance continued on Tuesday as the auction made a hat-trick of gap ups but got stalled at 11305 which was the Scene Of Crime last week which led to fresh leg to the downside as Nifty got back into Monday’s Range & Value taking support just above the VAL which was also the PBL (Pull Back Low) as well as IBH (Initial Balance High) of Monday as it made a low of 11181 after which it formed a Gaussian profile for the day with a close right at the day’s prominent POC of 11222. Wednesday made an OAIR start and remained inside Tuesday’s range all day forming another balanced profile on the daily and combining the day’s profile with the previous 2 days of the week, the auction gave a well-balanced 3-day composite with Value at 11196-11222-11263 and looked set to give a move away from here which started in the form of yet another gap up open on Thursday as Nifty opened in the selling tail of 11320 to 11442 and formed a ‘p’ shape profile as it made similar highs at the 11425 level failing to take the extension handle of 11442 out which would be the immediate reference on the upside in the coming week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

The weekly range & value both are inside previous week and the profile resembles an incomplete DD (Double Distribution) with a nice lower distribution which forms this week’s Value of 11181-11223-11277 from where it has given a move away with a buying tail from 11305 to 11366 which would be the support zone to watch on the downside below the prominent dPOC of Thursday at 11405. On the upside, if Nifty is able to take out the extension handle of 11442, it could probe higher towards the VPOCs of 11494 / 11541 & 11559.

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 11442 for a rise to 11494* / 11541*-559* & 11587-611
B) The auction staying below 11398 could test 11365 / 11305-290 & 11260*-222*

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 11611, Nifty can probe higher to 11640-665 / 11712*-731 & 11780
D) Below 11222, the auction can fall further to 11181 / 11141-130 & 11076-031

NF (Weekly Profile)

11435 [ 11447 / 11090 ]

NF opened this week with a gap up on Monday and took out the HVN of 11178 in the IB itself as it made a slow probe higher all day after leaving an extension handle at 11182 as it made a high of 11249 forming a ‘p’ shape profile for the day. The auction opened higher once again on Tuesday and hit new highs of 11298 in the IB stalling right below the previous week’s extension handle of 11302 indicating the end of the move higher after which if formed a balance over the next 2 days between the bearish extension handle of 11302 and this week’s bullish extension handle of 11182 giving a nice 3-day composite. NF then moved away from this composite on Thursday in a replica of Monday’s action as it opened with a 100 point gap up and made a slow probe higher in the selling tail of 11343 to 11422 as it hit 11447 leaving another ‘p’ shape profile to end the week at 11435. The range of 357 points from 11090 to 11447 & this week’s Value at 11190-11242-11278 were both inside previous week but with the close at highs, there is good chance that the auction could continue to probe higher in the next week if it stays above 11425.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (28th Sep to 01st Oct 2020)
Spot Weekly – 22246 [ 22294 / 21055 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is an elongated trending one down in a large range of 1694 points with completely lower Value at 20640-21240-21430 and the auction could return to a balance in the coming week filling up the low volume zone(s) as long as it stays above 20794

BankNifty opened the week with a gap up continuing the imbalance of last Friday’s Neutral Extreme close as it went on to complete the 2 ATR objective of 21458 from the FA of 20430 and in the process left a buying tail from 21253 to 21055 after which it went on to get accepted in previous week’s selling tail of 21540 to 21812 as it made a high of 21709 on Monday and then went on to complete a hat-trick of higher opens on Tuesday where it hit 21811 at open stalling right below the extension handle of 21st Sep which signalled the end of the imbalance on the upside from the FA of 20430. The auction then probed lower getting back into previous day’s range & value as it left a long selling tail from 21570 to 21811 and made mutliple REs lower but could only form a ‘b’ shape profile for the day after making a low of 21280 taking support just above Monday’s buying singles. BankNifty made an attempt to move away from this ‘b’ shape profile with another initiative move lower on Wednesday in the IB where it gained entry into the singles of Monday and made lows of 21128 leaving another long selling tail from 21213 to 21426 but the inability to extend the range further on the downside led to a short covering move as the auction went on to negate the entire selling tail of morning and made new highs of 21549 leaving a nice 2-day Gaussian profile with a selling tail at top along with a prominent POC at 21380. Thursday saw buyers taking control of the auction as they made a gap up open and drove higher taking out that extension handle of 21812 in the ‘A’ period itself and left an initiative buying tail in the IB from 21848 to 21664 where it tagged the 18th Sep VPOC of 21948. BankNifty went on to tag the FA of 22099 which was also the previous week’s high where it consolidated for a while before making a fresh OTF (One Time Frame) move higher into the close as it tested the extension handle of 22250 from 18th Sep which was the day it had started the new imbalance lower from the 7-day composite from 9th Sep to 17th Sep. (click here to view the MP Lite chart). The high marked for the day/week was 22294 which was just short of the weekly VPOC of 22320 which would be the immediate reference on the upside along with the composite VPOC of 22404 for the auction to continue higher in the coming sesssion(s).

The weekly profile resembles a nice balance formed for the first 3 days with Value at 21220-21400-21670 from where BankNifty has made a move away with a low volume area from 21989 to 21710 which would be the support zone below the extension handles of 22139 & 21989 for the next week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to stay above 22265 for a probe to 22320*-405* / 22508-576 / 22650-726 / 22808-890 & 22975*
B) Accepting below 22200, the auction could test 22130-062 / 21989-903 / 21848-750 / 21670-609 & 21550-499

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22975, BankNifty can probe higher to 23029-100 / 23208-333 / 23410-480 / 23559 & 23660-774
D) Below 21499, lower levels of 21390*-300 / 21220-171 / 21065-030 / 20950-880 & 20794*-706 could come into play

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

22316 [ 22367 / 21050 ]

BNF began the week well above the HVN of 20846 continuing the imbalance of last Friday as it went on to tag the 2 ATR objective of 21490 from the FA of 20431 and continued to probe higher closing around the highs of 21766 clearly indicating that the upmove is still strong. The auction opened higher on Tuesday but got stalled right below previous week’s extension handle of 21853 where sellers returned and reversed the probe to the downside over the next 2 days retracing the rise from Monday as it tested the buying tail while making a low of 21141 where it saw demand coming back which took BNF back to 21580 forming a nice 3-day composite balance with Value at 21314-21400-21629. Thursday saw an initiative move away from this balance as BNF opened with a gap up and continued to trend higher all day negating the extension handle of 21853 as it formed a DD (Double Distriubtion) Trend Day and made highs of 22367 falling just short of the prominent weekly VPOC of 22430 which would be the immediate reference on the upside in the coming week. This week’s Value was overlapping to higher at 21260-21400-21710.