Weekly charts (29th June to 03rd July 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (29th June to 03rd July)
Spot Weekly – 10607 [ 10631 / 10223 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced Neutral Centre one with completely higher Value at 10275 to 10410 along with a prominent POC at 10355 and saw the narrowest weekly range since 20th Feb 2020 of just 359 points so there is a very good chance that the aucion could start a fresh leg of imbalance in the coming week(s)

Nifty opened the week with a gap down staying below previous week’s prominent POC of 10355 and continued to probed lower breaking below previous week’s Value as it made a low of 10230 in the IB (Initial Balance) but similar to Friday remained in a very narrow range after it made a failed attempt to break lower in the ‘E’ period where it hit 10223 forming a nice balanced profile for the day with the POC at 10260 before it made a small spike higher into the close confirming a FA (Failed Auction) on the daily timeframe which gave the first sign that an imbalance could be starting. Nifty opened with a big gap up on Tuesday closing the previous day’s gap down but could not get fresh demand which led to a probe lower as that prominent POC of 10355 was acting as a magnet. The auction was forming yet another balanced profile in a narrow range for most part of the day before once again spiking into the close but this time it was on the downside as it got back into previous day’s range & Value but stopped just short of the yPOC of 10260 as it made a low of 10267 leaving a small but important tail which meant that the FA of 10223 was still in play. This tail was further confirmed by another initiative buying tail on Wednesday in the IB as Nifty made a good range expansion making multiple REs (Range Extension) higher giving a Double Distribution Trend Day as it made a high of 10447 thus completing the 1 ATR target of 10442 from the FA. Thusday saw the imbalance continue with a gap up along with another day of multiple REs to the upside as the auction revisted previous week’s high & FA of 10553 in ‘T+6’ Days and went on to make new highs of 10598. Nifty opened higher for the 4th consecutive day this week but the imbalance now seemed to be getting over as it the auction stalled in the huge selling tail of 9th March 2020 and remained in a narrow range of just 69 points all day beating last Friday’s record of 99 points as it formed a Gaussian profile with a prominent POC at 10599 to close the week at 10607.

The weekly profile was an imbalanced one with Value completely outside previous Value at 10221-10350-10524 and represents a Double Distribution with the zone form 10447 to 10491 separating the 2 distributions. Nifty will need to get accepted above 10613 in the coming week to continue the probe higher towards the 2 ATR target of 10660 from this week’s FA and above it 10766 & 10865. On the downside, staying below 10599 could being a test of the daily VPOCs of 10557 / 10421 & 10260 in the coming week.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to the previous week on MPLite

Click here to view the 2nd to 11th March 2020 MPLite charts for the hurdles that need to be crossed on the upside

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 10613 for a rise to 10660-713 / 10751-766 / 10813-865 & 10891-903*
B) The auction staying below 10599 could test 10557*-491 / 10447-421* / 10392-372 & 10320-302

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 10903, Nifty can probe higher to 10958 / 11025 / 11106 / 11154 & 11224
D) Below 10302, the auction can fall further to 10260*-203 / 10159-110 / 10050 & 10005-9999

NF (Weekly Profile)

10572 [ 10606 / 10156 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly profile is a well balanced one with FA’s at both ends and a narrow & bulging Value Area at 10224-10290-10332 which was completely higher compared to the last 3 weeks. A big move from here is possible in the coming week(s) provided the auction negates one of the 2 daily FAs of this week

NF opened lower this week but took support exactly at previous week’s low of 10156 as it confirmed another FA at the same level as it set up for a trending move higher all week as it completed the 2 ATR objective on Friday as it made a high of 10606 before closing the week 10572. The weekly profile resembles a DD with higher & expanding Value at 10266-10290-10596 and has a HVN at 10570 in the upper disribution which will be the level to watch in the coming week and would need some initiative volumes here to continue the proge higher. However, staying below 10570 could see the auction fill up the low volume zone till the lower HVN of 10290.

BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (29th June to 03rd July)
Spot Weekly – 21852 [ 22345 / 21026 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘We have a 3-1-3 profile on the weekly with completely higher Value at 21370-21470-22000 but the close right in the middle of profile and the tails at both ends suggest that BankNifty could remain in this range and continue to form a balance on the higher time frame in the coming week with the prominent POC of 21470 in focus

As expected, BankNifty formed an inside bar on the weekly after it opened with a gap down on Monday and continued to probe lower where it got rejected from previous week’s buying tail in the process confirmed a FA at 21026 which triggered a trending move higher as the auction not only tagged the 1 ATR objective of 21842 but also completed the 80% Rule in previous week’s Value as it made highs of 22061 on Wednesday. Thursday saw another gap up open as BankNifty continued the probe higher and made highs of 22345 in the IB getting rejected just below previous week’s selling tail which indicated that the probe to the upside could be getting over and this view got more confrimation as it made a RE lower to get back into previous day’s range & value to tag lows of 21890 before closing at 21953 leaving a prominent POC at 22063. The auction opened higher on Friday but got rejected from the yPOC to leave a small selling tail in the ‘A’ period as it probed lower in the IB breaking below PDL (Previous Day Low) to make a low of 21814 but could not make a RE lower which led to a retracement to 22051 in the ‘G’ period where it left a PBH just below that prominent POC of 22063 which meant that the probe for the day once again turned lower after which BankNifty finally made new lows in the ‘I’ period at 21769 and followed it up with a similar low of 21768 in the ‘J’ period and these poor lows meant the downmove was getting exhausted after which closed around the day’s prominent POC of 21858 leaving a ‘b’ shape profile indicating long liquidation.

The weekly Value was overlapping to higher at 21430-21920-22280 and we have a 2-week composite with similar Value at 21425-21893-22145 and coming week needs to get some initiative volumes around the 21900 zone if the auction has to move away from this balance.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to sustain above 21893 for a probe to 21965 / 22063-145 / 22245-351 / 22425 & 22501-550
B) The auction below 21825 could test 21749-660 / 21593-476 / 21390-315 / 21230 & 21165

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 22550, BankNifty can probe higher to 22634-705 / 22795-875 / 22953 / 23040-138* & 23180-257
D) Below 21165, lower levels of 21076-003 / 20918-880 / 20774-733 / 20640-540 & 20445 could come into play

Additional Weekly Hypos

E) If 23257 is taken out, the auction can further rise to 23333 / 23403-450 / 23565-624* / 23716-822 / 23901 & 24025-074
F) Break of 20445 could lead to a fall to 20390-320 / 20211* / 20100-031 / 19890*-780 & 19648

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

21844 [ 22290 / 20886 ]

BNF also opened lower this week as it made lows of 20886 and took support at the June series VWAP of 20887 which was a sign that the previous series buyers were active as similar to NF, the auction confirmed a FA at lows to set up a trending move higher for the next 3 days as it made highs of 22290 on Thursday stalling just below previous week’s selling tail as it ended the week with a nice 2-day balance with a prominent POC at 21840 and closed right there. Value for the week was overlapping to higher at 21294-21840-22282.