Weekly charts (30th Mar to 3rd Apr 2020) and Market Profile Analysis

Nifty Spot Weekly Profile (30th Mar to 3rd Apr 2020)
Spot Weekly – 8084 [ 8678/ 8055 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The weekly Value is at 7850-8660-9030 with the close being around the POC which would be the important reference in the coming week. Staying below this POC, Nifty could fill up the low volume zone of this week with a probability to tag the POC of the lower distribution at 7903

Nifty opened at 8386 with a drop of almost 300 points giving the 4th consecutive weekly gap down but took support in the buying tail of 26th Mar as it made a low of 8333 in the IB and went on to reverse the probe to the upside as it made an attempt to make a Range Extension (RE) higher but could not sustain and this led to a trending move lower as the auction spiked lower into the close as it made lows of 8244 leaving a Neutral Extreme (NeuX) profile on Monday. Tuesday open re-confirmed the fact that a NeuX Day hardly gives a follow up as Nifty not only opened higher but made a OTF (One Time Frame) move to the upside for most part of the day as it not only made new highs for the week but also went on to close the weekly gap down and in the process tagged the POC of 8660 as it made hit a high of 8678 but faced swift rejection from there to close the day much lower at 8597. The auction then made an Open Drive Down on Wednesday which was also the first day of the new month as it made multiple RE’s lower and confirmed a FA (Failed Auction) on the weekly time frame at 8678 as it made new lows for the week at 8198 before closing the day at 8254 which was the POC of the day’s ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile. Nifty gave a move away from this POC when it opened on Friday after the holiday in between to leave an initiative selling tail from 8227 to 8356 in the IB as it went on to make new lows for the week at 8055 just missing the 1 ATR objective of 8035 from this week’s FA of 8678 to leave yet another ‘b’ shape profile for the day closing at 8084. The weekly profile has made an inside bar on both the range as well as the Value filling up the previous week’s low volume zone as was expected. This week’s Value is at 8240-8460-8600 and the 2-week composite Value stands at 7953-8626-9030 and as the close has been around the lows of the week, the PLR for the coming 3-day week which starts and ends with a holiday would be to the downside.

Click here to view this week’s auction in Nifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Click here to view the 2 week composite of Nifty

Main Weekly Hypos for Nifty (Spot):

A) Nifty needs to sustain above 8110 for a move to 8146 / 8195-8205 / 8240-53 / 8275-82 & 8330
B) The auction has immediate support at 8055 below which it could fall to 8011 / 7980-53 / 7922-03* / 7877-65 & 7833-05

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) If 8330 is taken out, Nifty can probe higher to 8368-75 / 8413-21 / 8460 / 8511-20 & 8557-92
D) Break of 7805 could bring lower levels of 7765-44 / 7715-01 / 7671-57 / 7615 & 7569

-Additional Hypos*-

E) Above 8592*, Nifty could start a new leg up to 8626* / 8678-95 / 8724-43 / 8790 & 8840
F) Below 7569*, the auction can fall further to 7526-11 / 7489-71* / 7434 -7395 / 7357*-50 & 7311

NF (Weekly Profile)

8084 [8715 / 8045]

NF made an inside bar on the weekly time frame filling up previous week’s low volume zone of the DD profile after it got rejected from the weekly POC of 8670 after making a high of 8715 on Tuesday where it confirmed a weekly FA on Wednesday and went on to tag the 1 ATR objective of 8065 on Friday where it made lows of 8045 before closing the week at 8084. This week’s Value is 8052-8136-8490 and the PLR remains to the downside for the coming week with the first reference on upside being that weekly HVN of 8130.


BankNifty Spot Weekly Profile (30th Mar to 3rd Apr 2020)
Spot Weekly – 17249 [ 19716 / 17143 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘The first low volume zone is from 19430 to the weekly extension handle of 18895 below which there is the HVN of 18450 which would be important levels on the downside.

BankNifty also opened with a weekly gap down of more than 700 points on Monday getting accepted in the low volume zone below 19430 and took support at 19057 in the IB which was just above that weekly extension handle of 18895. The auction then made a failed ‘D’ period extension on the upside as it made new highs for the day at 19716 but was swiftly rejected triggering a trending move to the downside for the rest of the day as it made a 1000 point drop to 18669 leaving a Neutral Extreme profile and also confirming a FA on the daily time frame at 19716. There was a no follow up on the downside to this NeuX profile on Tuesday as BankNifty stayed in the previous day’s range forming a balanced profile with a range of just 674 points which was the lowest in 15 days indicating that the auction was getting ready for a fresh move in the coming session(s). This view got more confirmation with an Open Drive Down on Wednesday as BankNifty left an initiative selling tail from 19154 to 18615 as it fell by more than 1000 points from the day’s high marking new lows for the week at 18042 leaving a ‘b’ shape long liquidation profile for the day closing at the prominent POC of 18211. The holiday on Thursday did not help in changing the direction of the auction as it gave an Open Test Drive Down from the POC of 18211 on Friday leaving yet another selling tail from 18326 to 17921 in the IB which also saw the 1 ATR objective of 17897 from the FA of 19716 being hit as it made lows of 17515 in the first hour which was also the monthly VAL (View the monthly report here). BankNifty then began to form a balance and another ‘b’ shape profile for the day as it remained mostly in the IB range with a failed attempt to break lower in the ‘G’ & ‘H’ periods where it made marginal new low of 17458 but got rejected leading to a PBH of 17674 in the ‘I’ period. The auction however was not done for the week as it left a fresh extension handle in the ‘J’ period to give a move away from the dPOC it was forming at 17592 to hit previous week’s POC of 17280 as it made new lows of 17143 before closing the week at 17249. Though the weekly range & Value formed was completely inside previous week, the profile was that of a Triple Distribution Trend Down with a spike into the close. This week’s Value is at 18228-19092-19715 with extension handles at 18669 / 18043 & 17458 along with a weekly HVN at 17592 and the 2-week composite Value formed is at 16322-17280-19519 so staying below 17280, the PLR for the coming week would remain to the downside for a probable target of the 2 ATR objective of 16078 from the daily FA of 19716.

Click here to view this week’s auction in BankNifty with respect to previous week’s profile on MPLite

Click here to view the 2 week composite of BankNifty

Main Weekly Hypos for Bank Nifty (Spot):

A) BankNifty needs to get above 17280-295 & sustain for a probe to 17360 / 17425-458 / 17520 / 17592-623 & 17675-690 and acceptance above 17690 could go for 17750 / 17825 / 17890-922 / 18025-43 & 18091
B) Immediate support is at 17220 below which the auction could test 17160 / 17095-027* / 16966-901 / 16835 & 16752-723 and staying below 16723 could further fall to 16641-635 / 16575-513 / 16449 / 16385 & 16338-321

Extended Weekly Hypos

C) Above 18091, BankNifty can probe higher to 18160 / 18211-228 / 18290 / 18350-361 / 18410-444 & 18500-575
D) Below 16321, lower levels of 16257-193 / 16129-078 / 16011-03 / 15959-940 / 15880-876 & 15839*-814 could come into play

-Additional Hypos*-

E) Above 18575*, BankNifty could start a new leg up to 18620-633 / 18670-701 / 18770-790 / 18846 / 18910-930 / 18980-19045 & 19092-111
F) Below 15814*, the auction can go down to 15751-688 / 15625 / 15563-525 / 15440-377 / 15331-315 / 15273-253 & 15198-178

BNF (Weekly Profile) 

17176 [ 19820 / 17075 ]

Previous week’s report ended with this ‘BNF has made an elongated weekly profile with a range of 5253 points with 2 big distributions at both extremes with HVNs at 19800 & 17075 in the upper & lower distributions respectively

This week’s range was exactly between these 2 weekly HVNs of 19800 & 17075 as BNF opened lower on Monday but probed higher to get rejected at 19820 leaving a NeuX profile on the first day which also marked the high for the week. The auction made an inside bar on Tuesday but left a FA at 18817 to form a nice 2-day balance with a close at the overlapping POC of 19125 from where BNF moved away on Wednesday with a drive down forming a ‘b’ shape profile and in the process negating the FA of 18817 and forming new lows for the week at 17962. Friday saw another Drive lower from the POC of 18140 as the auction continued the weekly OTF lower ending with a spike into the close from 17311 to 17075 which would be the immediate reference for the coming week. The weekly Value is at 18150-19150-19750.