Last week’s sharp downtrend in the Nifty and especially the banknifty caught many traders including us off guard. The Nifty worked a range of an extremely high 338 points which is twice the average it does on a weekly. The BN worked a range of 1060 points. The vix hit a high of 14 but was unable to make a decisive move above 14.2 levels. The elevated vix levels and the higher ranges promise more volatility in the holiday-shortened week ahead. If vix manages a move past 14.2 in the week it would bring substantial more pressure on the markets.
There was a sharp responsive buying seen in both the Nifty and the bank nifty towards the close of Wednesday’s session and Friday’s session was also won by bulls to neutralize some of the advantages the bear had enjoyed during the week.
The series of August was traded with a vwap of 11444 and highest volume during the series came at 11480. Even though there was an intra day dip below 11444 on Wednesday, the 11444 vwap was defended well again on Thursday and the dip prevailed.
Up ahead we have seen a failed auction near 11602 ( equivalent to 11650F) which is the pivot we would be watching.
There is relatively thin auction in the week above 11603 which should give a sharp spurt to 11703 VPOC if sellers are unable to defend it.
On the other hand, if we break the vwap of 11444 again decisively on no responsive buying then the path is clean to 11235 and lower. Last week there was a big responsive buyer near 11440 spot ( equivalent to 11470F )
From the close of the August series, we have seen a sharp surge in Open Interest which has moved from 2.58CR volume to 2.93 CR volume. These are all shorts created by Fii’s in the Nifty futures. You can track a daily reading of Open Interest on our forum at – https://vtrender.com/forum/
The BN traded August with a vwap of 27923 and highest volume was traded at 28280. It has already hit Aug lows and gone below last week after breaking the vwap of Aug series on the first day of the week – Monday.
Nifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :
and an expanded chart of the Nifty Sept Futures
The week was traded in a range of 11751-11437 range with a POC at 11570
The Profile was a b shaped distribution indicating long liquidation and an addition of short positions.
Early support can be seen now at 11444 in the Profile charts
Supply expected to come back around 11600 and 11710 zone this coming week.
Our preferred view is to see it consolidate between 11600 on the higher side and 11444 on the lower.
Prospect of a sharp 100 point rise above 11605 cannot be ruled out.
These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.
To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/. Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/
BankNifty Weekly Profile ( spot) :
and an expanded chart of the Bank Nifty Sept Futures
The banknifty traded a 28203-27136 range during the week.
Largest volume was traded at 27380 during the week
The 27870 spot zone has the initiative big seller of the week.
The 27600 to 27100 zone could invite a soft auction during the week.
These are our weekly projections and broadly the setups we would look at to trade in the coming week subject to a confirmation from our OrderFlow charts. These plans can change depending on the change in the day auction.
To know more about how we use these setups to trade and to stay updated, and get actionable trading advice subscribe to the VTR ( Vtrender Trading Room). More info at-https://vtrender.com/trading-room/. Pricing details at – https://vtrender.com/pricing/