Vix-Spx Update

Been 4 days since my last post on the subject and what has the SPX done- down 3 points. Sideways movement it certainly is. Here is the updated VIX chart : Still above my green trendline. I will stick to my prognosis for a side-ways to an up market for the near term. Since this […]

Vix and the Spx-2

My last post here on this subject of the Vix called for a bottom in the Vix and a subsequent top in the index at 1146-1150 levels, levels which we have not seen since. Let’s look at where the Vix is today after that post.Here is a YTD chart of the VIX: As you can […]

Correction over?

Sometime on Friday, when world markets were scared becuase of the Fed discount rate hike, I had mentioned on this blog that it was a non-event, the panic was people chickening out and it presented an opportunity for traders to ‘buy the dip’. Well we rallied from those 4820 levels to 4900 today, about 80 […]

Fed Rate hike? What will happen?

The answer is nothing. Markets are spooked globally as the Fed suddenly announced a 25 basis point hike in the discount rate. Futures around the world collapsed on the news and our very own Nifty opened about 1.2 % down. So is this the end of the road for this rally? Let’s understand what the […]

Open Interst data from 9th Feb

Here is the Open Interest table at the end of day trading on the 9th of Feb. Put writers have taken the Open Interest at strikes 4600, 4700 and 4800 each between 4.4 and 4.8 Million shares by adding roughly about 10 % at each strike. Infact total calls lots reduced by 3450 lots wheres […]

Bear Flag Alert !!

So the touch of the 200 DMA did not happen today…But it is still in play as long as the market is below 100 DMA at 5015 and does not close above it. What I wanted to bring to your attention today is the Bear Flag I have been watching on the Nifty for the […]

Nifty-update

Nifty is very close to the 200 DMA at 4640 levels. It will be a good spot to book shorts and consider a few longs. A failure to touch the level today, would mean that the Nifty will have to visit again. Generally according to the moving average rule, a break of 20 DMA should […]

OI data from 4th Feb

My query in yesterday‘s post got answered by the action in the Nifty today, but the end of the day left behind another question about the range we find ourselves in. Whilst the data was very clear yesterday about a down day in the markets today, I am not very comfortable in putting forward a […]

Open Interest data from 3rd Feb

Tuesday they took it down, wednesday they brought it up by an equal measure. What’s in store for us tomorrow? Data is pointing towards a market tomorrow, which may go down again. After the inability to take out 4949 today ( which frankly I expected) stocks may open down tomorrow. Data posted on the blog […]

Nifty

Well, the breakout above 4949 didn’t happen. Part of the reason was that the heavyweights like Reliance and State bank and Infosys traded below their VWAP most of the day and were nowhere near their highs when Nifty was threatening it’s breakout. Anybreakout by the Nifty without it’s leading stars has to be viewed with […]