The april series finished lower with sellers dominating the regions between 8400- 8485 spot. We do not see a positional Buy on the Monthly now till we cross above 8485 spot on the weekly to begin with. Sell on rises to continue with the lower end of our yearly range at 8065 under threat and the possibility of 7720 huge.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
Nifty May F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8050- 9119 zone for the rest of this year. (We are revising to 8050 about 150 points lower based on March data) .
Weekly levels :
(first updated 02/05) maintain sell on rise :
(On spot prices)
The seller is dominant and the weekly time frame of the profile does not convince us of a low in place.
At 8180 close the possibility of a bounce of maybe a 100 points remains to about 8280 spot. But we maintain that rises will be used to create short positions.The expiry day showed long rollover happening in the closing minutes. We believe that these are stuck longs and would use higher levels to exit
We do not see the buyer in control till prices close above 8335 spot.
Through the past 2 weeks we have seen increased sell pressure from 8400- 8480 spot. Above 8335 spot this 8480 spot zone is the second level of supply on the index.
Lower down we see 8113 as a support followed by the yearly reference area of 8060. We feel that if the early part of the week sells off and reaches 8065 we could see a bounce from there.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile operated below the value area of the previous session . #) vwap of the day was at 8279 with volume of 136 L (Less than Previous session) #) Ref lines are at 8229 and 8288 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. Big weakness below 8228 and Big strength above 8288 intra day. #) Value areas are at 8252-8236-8212 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ———————————————————————————————————— #) Excess at 8288 on 30/04 #) Excess at 8404 on 27/04 #) Excess at 8456 on 24/04 #) Excess at 8678 on 20/04 #) Day saw sellers at 8774 today ( 17/04/15) #) Day saw sellers active at 8836 on ( 16/04/15)
Hypothesis :
( Based on May Futures)
K.R.A is 8236 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8237 then it can move to 8270. Sl for this view 8199.
Hypo 2) If NF auctions below 8199 it can drop to 8158. Sl for this view is 8236.
BankNifty May F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb. There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.
Weekly levels :
(first updated 02/05)
(based on spot prices)
We continue to see this index rotating till it does not close above the 18450 supply mentioned last week.
The Bias point continues to be 18130- 18170 zone for the current week and we would stay positive as long as the index trades above these points in the coming week.
Above 18450 the index should stretch the move to 18650 and 18725 where the seller may attempt a comeback.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#)The BNF profile was an inside day . #) vwap was at 18438 with volumes of 22.1 L (Less than the previous session) #) Ref lines are at 18610 and 18440 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) Value areas are at 18498-18438-18390 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) excess at 18750 on 17/04 #) excess also at 17898 on 28/04
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18565 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If BNF auctions above 18615 then it should attempt to 18699 and 18762. Sl for this view is 18565
Hypo 2 ) If BNF auctions below 18565 then it should drop to 18390 and 18330 . Sl for this view is 18610. |