It's normal to get a gap opening after a long weekend, especially of the type when we have foreign markets working for almost two sessions after our close.
Not much can be done to analyze such openings in advance and short time frame players mostly do not carry over positions, which could explain the lower volumes seen in the markets on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On March 13th when Ben in the FOMC statement gave an upbeat assessment and inflation recognition , traders pumped the market up from the 1370 levels right upto 1417. A few days back when the minutes of the same meeting were released the market is back at the 1370 level.Of course the jobs report had a lot to do with the last 20 point drop.
But regardless it will have a bearing on the open of asian Markets tomorrow morning.
Here are some profile charts of the past three weeks of activity.
The charts above show the value area in blue and the POC as Purple horizontal lines.
Value area of the week gone by was back to the value region of two weeks prior. If 5301/5315 does not hold during the day and on closing basis we can see immediately 5265 and 5205 during the week. Only a close above the value high for last week standing at 5374 can neutralize the short term weakness.
The 5310 is the vwap/ composite POC of the profile we have been monitoring in this chart here- http://www.vtrender.com/content/composite-update-april-future
Obviously a break below that vwap line would mean that the buyer from expiry day has lost control.
In the BN the next downside targets are 10185/ 10129.The pattern is similar to the NF with a break lower below these mentioned points bringing 10000 all over again