For the first time in 8 sessions value in the Nifty Futures went sideways indicating a pause in the prevalent uptrend
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Nifty Aug F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : (no change) Medium Term : The Friday May 16th range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) forms the backdrop of the move we may see in the Nifty.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May16 th was 432 points.Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot and 8300 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Short term : Aggressive buyer seen earlier last week at 7652 F . New buyers seen on Monday at 7610. Resistance at 7690 F violated on good volumes and is likely to turn into support Support for the current week is at 7725 F from the auction of last week.
Today strong initiative buying was seen at 7772 F and is a short term support into expiry.
Observations in Today’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulxgo1caztqckg8/aug_nf.png
1) A market which balanced and had both sellers and buyers
2)vwap of the day was at 7895 and a reference area for the auction.
3) Day type was a normal distribution with close near one end
4) Support rises to 7875 F for the rest of this week now.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1 ) Most probably we should see a drive away from this profile tomorrow. In any case targets above 7875 F are at 7958F and 7993-8000 as stated yesterday.
Hypo2 ) Below 7872 buyers lose momentum and NF will drop to 7850 and 7816-7806 for a test.
BankNifty F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : Friday May16th huge range of 15733- 14430 Spot Prices provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
Short Term :
Last week’s levels of 15180 showed buyers early in the morning as BNF started a big 400 point move early. Holding above 15180 F the BNF is likely to extend the imbalance to 15657 and 15876 this week.
(Day high was at 15640 just short of the projected 15657)
Current day Observations : https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cm8nnpzrhutlta/aug_bnf.png
1) Buyers seen earlier in the morning but profit booking visible at highs of 15600 again
2)Hypo1 played out fully and to the mentioned levels.
3) Support now placed 15435 for the week.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1) The BNF is developing a minor balance and we should see more of BNF in the 15470- 15650 range tomorrow. The idea would be to buy the dip near 15470 and liquidate intra day at higher levels. Profile is on track for 15800- 15850 later this week provided 15470 holds on closing basis.
Hypo2 ) There will be loss of momentum if BNF falls below 15430 in which case shorts can be taken intra day for 15312 and 15190 revisit. |