Again we had different auctions rolled into 1 session as yesterday’s sellers met strong responsive buyers near the FA point and managed to reverse the trend there. Hypo1 played out in NF and BNF fully again.
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Nifty Aug F |
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Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : The Friday May 16th range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) forms the backdrop of the move we may see in the Nifty.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May16 th was 432 points.Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Short term : We are now seeing a two sided auction as we come into expiry week with buyers and sellers almost equal in number and volumes. Support for the current week has moved upto 7830 F from the 7725 F in the auction of last week. Resistance will be seen at 7965 and then at 8007.
Observations in Today’s session :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ulxgo1caztqckg8/aug_nf.png
1) The market trended lower in the first session as per hypo 1 before buyers took control.
2)vwap of the day was at 7898.
3) Day type was a normal variation as both buyers and sellers clashed but the market closed at buyer’s extreme
4) Failed auction at 7867 on Thursday 21st Aug got a visit on day T+3.
5) Maintain expiry week view of an auction between 7830- 7965 F.
6) Both Hypos played out in NF/ BNF in a 2 sided auction .
Hypothesis :
Hypo1 ) Looking at the longs in the NF today, an open which stays above 7901 tomorrow will take the Nifty to 7939 and above 7940 a test of Vpoc near 7972
Hypo2 ) Below 7901 the NF would trade to 7880 and a possible 7833.
BankNifty F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Medium Term Friday May16th range of 15730 14430 in spot provided a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time.
Within this range as long as we close above 15100 spot, the BN will trade towards 17680 .
Short Term :
The target of 15876 given above 15180 was hit on friday. Support for the week now rises to 15624.On the higher side 16030 is possible resistance this week.
Current day Observations :
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2cm8nnpzrhutlta/aug_bnf.png
1) A balanced auction with an undecided close near 15640.
2) vwap of the day placed at 15606
3) Buyers of 21/08 responded as BNF neared second support of 15470 when it went below 15624.
Hypothesis :
Hypo1) An open above 15640 would mean 15744 visit immediately and if buyers respond then BNF can zoom to 15878 again.
Hypo2 )Below 15620 the BNF will go to retest day lows of 15510. |