General Chat Transcript
Date and Time: September 17, 2014 09:24:24
[09:01] Shai : GM all
[09:01] Shai : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-17th-sept/
[09:03] Rahul G : GM shai
[09:03] r m : Good Morning folks!
[09:04] Chiranthan : Bought 8100 ce at 16 yesterday. Should I sell at opening price?
[09:05] Kathir : Good Morning Shai RM rahul chiranthan all 🙂
[09:05] Chiranthan : gm
[09:06] Sharad : GM Shai Rahul RM Chranthan Kathir
[09:07] r m : Hi Kathir, Sharad, Rahul, Chiranthan 🙂
[09:09] Rahul G : Gm rm, sharad and chiranthan
[09:09] Shai : Yes Chiranthan – can sell near 7990 – 7996 F as it is early mroining res
[09:10] Shai : spot close above 7980 important today
[09:10] Shai : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-1609/
[09:11] Kathir : HI sharad
[09:11] Kathir : @shai usd/inr got ur support 61.09
[09:12] Shai : FED day today
[09:12] Kathir : ok
[09:12] Shai : expect a strong move in last 1.5 hours of trade
[09:14] Kathir : ok
[09:16] Shai : Pull back high is 7995- 3) Pull back high was at 7995 and may turn into mild intra resistance
[09:16] Kathir : even yestt you mentioned 7996
[09:16] Kathir : @shai exited bnf ce..thanks
[09:18] Shai : mw
[09:18] Shai : NF should not slip below 7980- 82
[09:18] Shai : then it may go down to 7955 again
[09:20] Shai : 15981 pull back high- 4) Pull back high was at 15981 and would be first line of resistance tomorrow.
[09:20] Kathir : @shai what is the bnf supp from here now
[09:21] Shai : BNF supp at 15847
[09:21] Kathir : ok
[09:23] Kathir : @shai is it ok if we re buy that ce based on this supp..mean somewhere near to the supp?or wait
[09:24] Shai : Now buy ce only abv 16000 or down below
[09:24] r m : Open and High are same for BNF
[09:24] r m : NF too
[09:25] Kathir : ok shai thanks
[09:27] Sumit : gm everyone
[09:28] r m : Hi Sumit
[09:28] Kathir : hi sumit
[09:31] Sharad : Shai this pink greed orderflow line is calculated on volume base order quantity?
[09:33] Sharad : if it is volume base than can we increase quantity so that very frequent green pink avoided…. or can we fine tune it little bit
[09:33] r m : it is moving average of Order flow, the more it is refined more will be the lag
[09:35] Sharad : RM little more leg is ok but i want to remove very frequent changes in it when market is slow
[09:36] Sharad : or can we add one more orderflow moving average which is 50% or nearby numbers more
[09:36] r m : yeah, it is very irritating when whipsawing every minute 🙂
[09:36] Sumit : Sharad, only when you find that market is in 20-30 points range, avoid this. otherwise it works well in its present form.
[09:36] r m : yes
[09:36] Sharad : so ading one more average can give crossover and we can trade on that also
[09:38] Sumit : we had red-blue larger OF. that I think is used for twitter calls
[09:38] Sumit : more lag in that and less whipsaws, but less profit
[09:38] r m : yep, it is below 15870 right now
[09:39] Sharad : i can not undurstand that red blue big orderflow at all
[09:39] r m : that is good for catching large swings, 200-300 points or more in BNF
[09:39] r m : stops are also very big for that
[09:39] Sumit : rm, this looks different :). continous red blue aand step ladder kind of move.
[09:39] Sharad : so buy when it turn or buy when price is above it
[09:40] r m : @Sumit, yeah it looks strange here 🙂
[09:41] r m : @Sharad, it generates buy/sell signals sent thru twitter, guess that system is not working this week
[09:42] Sumit : it is not visible in nf, so must have triggered somewhere up and now large nf swing captured. may be!!
[09:42] Sharad : but how to trade seeing it live on screen RM ?
[09:43] r m : @Sharad, I don’t think it can be traded live from screen
[09:43] Sharad : ok fine
[09:44] r m : first pink signal whipsawed, second has given 40+ points from 15900
[09:44] Sumit : Sharad, I hv not backtested. but you can try trading when price move above or below the OF. just a thought
[09:45] Sharad : RM we can not say 40+ as trade will close at green
[09:45] Sumit : part book 🙂
[09:45] r m : @Sharad, part should be booked for around 40 points, then the balance left at the mercy of signal 🙂
[09:46] Sharad : ok… good instruction…. i used to reverse trade at change of colour
[09:46] Kathir : 🙂
[09:47] r m : yesterday it whipsawed god only knows how many time but gave 18, 93, 48 and 33 points from signal to signal
[09:48] Sharad : yes RM to remove or less whipsawe we need little fine tuning or one more OF line of higher value
[09:49] Sharad : so adding one more can give crossover play also
[09:49] r m : maybe Sharad, but my experience is the more you fine tune things, the worse they become 🙂
[09:49] Kathir : 🙂
[09:49] Sharad : yeah you are more experianced than me…
[09:50] r m : not at all Sharad, I just talk more freely 🙂
[09:50] Sharad : no RM you traded more on this system… so know better than me
[09:51] Kathir : @sharad RM ge is like a library
[09:51] Shai : I did a small note on teh green pink over the weekend- http://vtrender.com/premium/bnf-chart-playback/
[09:51] r m : no no, this one needs patience of a Yogi, I am just trying to learn it )
[09:51] r m : 🙂
[09:51] Sharad : good
[09:51] Narendra : i am not able to view this
[09:52] r m : @Kathir, Librarian would be a better word 😀
[09:52] Shai : Try trading one side of vwap to begin with
[09:52] Shai : like only the pinks below vwap and greens above vwap
[09:52] Kathir : 🙂
[09:53] Shai : and reverse if there is a vwap crossover of the green pink
[09:53] Sharad : thats a good idea Shai… this is called experiance
[09:53] Shai : also best signals are when price stays below the signal line
[09:53] r m : @Sharad, Master speaketh 🙂
[09:53] Shai : if pink that is and above green line if
[09:54] Sumit : rm, or may be wiki is even better
[09:54] Sumit : *better word 🙂
[09:54] r m : lol
[09:54] Kathir : lol
[09:54] Shai : But try booking on 35-45 points
[09:54] Shai : like 15890- 15855 was a signal
[09:55] r m : @Sumit, how did you guess my source of knowledge so accurately? 🙂
[09:55] Shai : @Narendra you have to login at vtrender.com/login
[09:55] Sumit : not source of knowledge but who you are. a walking wiki:)
[09:56] Shai : 7962
[09:56] Shai : looking for a market to stay 7955- 8015 today
[09:56] Shai : that will be a nice U devloping for the leg up to expiry
[09:57] Narendra : i tried but its invalid username or password
[09:57] Shai : Close above 7980 spot- can take ce’s home of 8000 or 8100
[09:58] Kathir : @rm bnf 80% trade gave 50 almost
[09:58] r m : @Kathir, good!
[09:59] Kathir : i covered the ce sold morning and sold now again
[09:59] r m : ok
[09:59] Kathir : actually it was not based on 80% it was for shai’s supp bnf 15847 range
[10:00] Kathir : and exit near vwap
[10:00] r m : ok
[10:00] Shai : OrderFlow in NF now shows more buyers
[10:01] Kathir : @RM can you please let me the know the last weeks RCOM spot low?
[10:01] Shai : over yesterday in the same range
[10:01] r m : @Kathir, 5th sep low was 107.35
[10:02] r m : yesterday below that at 106.5
[10:02] r m : it is trading below May8th low of 113.5
[10:04] Kathir : @RM ok thanks
[10:05] Shai : Keep watching the blues in the top pane- that always adds conviction to long or short trades
[10:05] Shai : If there is big difference between the bars the market is ready to go into imbalance
[10:08] Shai : for green pink watchers a test case-
[10:09] Shai : Now in BNF 2 conditions for a long trade abv vwap
[10:09] Shai : green signal line has to cross vwap and we take trade if price is above signal line when it crosses
[10:14] r m : both nf and bnf trading in the lower 1/3rd of yesterday’s range
[10:15] r m : NF is on the borderline though
[10:16] Shai : OrderFlow shows us that yesterday’s sellers are not that actiive
[10:16] r m : ok
[10:16] Shai : so auction theory put to test and expect buyers to push auction higher
[10:17] r m : so now we observer whethere the sellers get active in the upper part of yesterday’s range?
[10:17] r m : *observe
[10:21] Shai : yes
[10:21] Shai : at 8016- 8020 wher they were previously yesterday
[10:21] r m : ok, thanks
[10:23] Shai : thsi chart- http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/sept_nf12.png
[10:23] r m : Thanks
[10:23] Shai : on- (10:09) Shai :green signal line has to cross vwap and we take trade if price is above signal line when it crosses
[10:25] Shai : Nf reached the vwap band
[10:25] Shai : 8010
[10:32] Shai : sellers came at that first attempt in NF
[10:32] Shai : 7994 is now supp
[10:33] Shai : and 1 open – high is gone
[10:43] Sumit : what is this dash line at 7998
[10:46] r m : that line seems to have some NF repellant in it 🙂
[10:48] Shai : I’ve market it as a line to watch based on the supp of yesterday and the pull back high
[10:48] r m : ok, thanks
[10:48] Shai : 2 things clashed and hence marked on cahrt
[10:49] Shai : First probe to 8010 shows sellers
[10:49] Shai : Nf may want to come back to vwap again
[10:49] Shai : and check if more buyers are interested
[10:50] Shai : I’m a bit away from screen for next 1 hour but around
[10:50] Sumit : ok. thanks Shai
[10:50] Shai : If you have any quesries amrk it as a PM please and I will respond
[11:36] Kathir : @RM and all friends hav to leave catch you later or tomrw..thanks and bye
[11:36] r m : Bye Kathir, have a great day 🙂
[11:37] Sumit : bye Kathir
[11:57] Sharad : USDINR going down before big event … market should go opposite
[12:05] r m : S&P closed 15 points up last night
[12:08] r m : http://screencast.com/t/I0fLPoKPDFrO
[12:10] r m : oops, it did’nt load 🙁
[12:17] r m : looks like BNF wants to go below PDL
[12:20] Sumit : charts working?
[12:21] r m : yes
[12:21] r m : moving slowly though
[12:22] r m : pink of crossed below vwap at 15900, that move has given 40 points
[12:22] Sumit : thanks rm
[12:23] r m : @Sumit, I am observing pink-green these days and trying to create a data for few days
[12:24] r m : that may help us in evovlving better tactics to trade this OF
[12:24] r m : *evolving
[12:24] Sumit : nice. I usually trade this only along with Shai’s levels.
[12:24] r m : great!
[12:25] Sumit : it works well except in small trading range
[12:25] r m : yes
[12:28] r m : some buying interest at lows but no beeeg blue bar 🙂
[12:32] Sumit : IB holding well
[12:33] r m : europe opens now
[12:34] Sumit : net is working fine but comments and posting delayed here 🙁
[12:35] r m : yes, that happens sometime, guess there is a bottleneck at omnovia!
[12:38] Sumit : refreshed and now charts gone :). still processing
[12:38] r m : 🙂
[12:38] Sumit : rm, let me know when bnf turns green
[12:39] r m : so far pink
[12:40] r m : first tinge of green now at 1585
[12:40] r m : 15885
[12:41] Sumit : thanks
[12:42] r m : 15875, 2 bars over still green
[12:50] Sumit : still pink? charts working?
[12:57] r m : turned green at 12:42, still green
[12:58] r m : charts working
[13:10] r m : this green has worked well from even below vwap
[13:10] r m : guess that combo of Shai’s hypo1 and green was very potent 🙂
[13:33] r m : @Sumit, your chart OK now?
[13:33] r m : Pink at 15875
[13:36] Shai : test
[13:37] r m : charts ok
[13:37] Shai : thanks
[13:38] Shai : Market holding down below 7996
[13:38] r m : more chances of it going down now?
[13:38] Shai : that test of 8010 seems to have the sellers back
[13:39] Shai : looks more like a close at vwap/ dpoc
[13:39] r m : ok
[13:39] r m : BNF is a normal day so far
[13:39] Shai : yes
[13:39] Shai : weaker – not tested above pbh
[13:40] r m : yes, also now sellers seen below vwap
[13:41] r m : in bnf
[13:48] Shai : more buyers in NF
[13:49] r m : yes
[13:50] Shai : I kept looking at yesterday’s orderflow chart and was surprised that the buyer did not do enough below 7996
[13:50] Shai : today that is much better
[13:53] r m : Plenty of buying in NF at lows
[13:54] Shai : yes
[13:54] r m : infy marches on!
[13:54] Shai : auction theory would require NF to trade 7990- 8030 tomorrow
[13:54] Shai : wrong below 7944 NF then 7892 is coming
[13:56] Shai : if we cross 8048 F after that then we go to 8152/ 8204 by Monday open
[13:57] Shai : Long ideas in BNf better abv 16007 , then 16093/ 16151 become easy targets
[13:58] r m : so 8100CE is a good buy here with 20 point stop (its price is 18.35 + brokerage, means without stop)!
[13:58] Shai : this profile of today in BNF locked between 15830 – 15980 with a bearish edge
[13:58] Shai : yes RM- lottery
[13:58] r m : ok, thanks 🙂
[14:12] Shai : Last hour of the day
[14:12] Shai : generally this hour ahead of a FED meet is crucial
[14:12] Shai : and many times our NSE traders have got it spot ON
[14:13] Shai : Many times – not every time 🙂
[14:13] r m : 🙂
[14:13] Shai : So if the index goes up – chances are the FED meet will push stocks globally up tonight
[14:13] Shai : *our index goes up
[14:14] Shai : profile would say we close at 7984/ 90 today
[14:14] Shai : but let’s keep an open mind ahead of the event
[14:14] r m : right here
[14:15] Shai : yes fair price vwap/ dpoc with buyers below and sellers above
[14:15] r m : ok
[14:16] Shai : Disclaimer- that was mostly in the days of Ben 🙂
[14:16] Shai : Don;t know if Janet Yellen is providing a similar service 🙂
[14:16] r m : Yellen has no friends here? 🙂
[14:17] Shai : 🙂
[14:24] Shai : If BNf crosses 15935 can go to 15975
[14:38] Sumit : test
[14:38] Sumit : now working fine
[14:38] r m : pass 🙂
[14:39] r m : it has been working ok all afternoon
[14:41] Sumit : thanks rm. last comment I had was at 12.39 “so far pink”
[14:42] Sumit : may be Omnovia issue or problem at my end 🙁
[14:42] r m : ok, it turned green the very next minute
[14:42] r m : normally it happens because of low bandwidth at our end
[14:42] Sumit : ok
[14:43] Sumit : but my net was fine. only Omnovia was not loading
[14:43] r m : i face this problem after my 4mbps quota is over and bandwidth drops to 512 kbps
[14:43] r m : yes, most of the applications don’t need very high bandwidth
[14:43] Sumit : could be. first time such issue
[14:43] Sumit : ok
[14:46] r m : but you missed nothing in pink-green, green at 12:40 was below vwap and subsequent pink at 13:34 was at the lows of the day and lost a lot of points on reversal
[14:46] Sumit : McDowell excluded from F&O.
[14:47] r m : yes
[14:47] Sumit : yeah. thats ok
[14:47] Sumit : any reason? what use was 5000 pts upmove.
[14:48] r m : normall exclusion from fno is on low liquidity
[14:48] Sumit : ok
[14:51] r m : @Sumit, some of Shai’s notes while you were exiled!
[14:51] r m : (13:54) Shai :auction theory would require NF to trade 7990- 8030 tomorrow(13:54) Shai :wrong below 7944 NF then 7892 is coming(13:56) Shai :if we cross 8048 F after that then we go to 8152/ 8204 by Monday open
[14:51] r m : (13:57) Shai :Long ideas in BNf better abv 16007 , then 16093/ 16151 become easy targets
[14:52] Sumit : 🙂 thanks rm
[14:52] r m : welcome
[14:52] Sumit : small range so far
[14:53] r m : yes, the biggies must be tired after yesterday’s huge range
[14:54] Sumit : last whole week was worst. never seen such small range in bn
[14:54] Sumit : had many whipsaws in pink green
[14:55] r m : yes
[14:55] r m : hope things move better after FED policy meeting
[14:55] Sumit : yes. hopefully
[14:56] Sumit : even IIP and WPI couldn’t move bnf
[15:00] r m : Probably because Rajan gave wide hints that he is not impressed by WPI 🙂
[15:00] Sumit : 🙂
[15:01] r m : *broad hint (god knows how i widened them) 😀
[15:01] Sumit : last time I was trading, there was a rate change and bnf dropped 500+ in matter of minutes
[15:01] Sumit : Janak was making merry 🙂
[15:04] r m : yeah, he is very fast
[15:13] Shai : Close coming near borderline
[15:14] Shai : (09:10) Shai :spot close above 7980 important today
[15:16] Shai : premium drop to 16 would also tell us that most of yesterday’s shorts ahve covered
[15:19] Shai : BNf is another story today
[15:19] Shai : shorts now coming in both is lasy 5 minutes
[15:21] Shai : could be early longs getting a bit nervous
[15:21] Shai : Profile is balanced
[15:21] Shai : there is a 100 point move in NF when today’s value breaks tomorrow
[15:22] Nitin : did not get this point @shai
[15:22] Shai : that would be 7892 or 8204
[15:22] Shai : Balanced profile today Nitin- One party will liquidate tomorrow
[15:23] Nitin : ok
[15:23] Shai : creating a 100 point move based on structure
[15:23] Shai : It will be nice if we get an open here and trade away
[15:24] Sumit : Shai, any levels in bnf
[15:24] Shai : 15840 very imp to hold
[15:24] Sumit : ok thanks
[15:24] Shai : 15825- 15840
[15:28] Sumit : Oct we have holidays 2nd to 6th?
[15:28] r m : 2nd
[15:29] Amit J : since morning banknifty has pinks
[15:29] Shai : yes
[15:29] Shai : BNf not looking good
[15:29] r m : 2, 3rd, 6th
[15:30] Sumit : 4th 5th are sat and sun
[15:30] Shai : generally the last 15 minute move in BNf gets reversed the next morning
[15:30] r m : ok 🙂
[15:30] Shai : we’ll see tom
[15:30] Shai : Bye all
[15:30] Shai : Have a nice eve
[15:30] r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30] Chiranthan : Bye
[15:30] Sumit : good bye everyone