OrderFlow charts and Notes 13/10

[08:48]   r m : Good Morning folks!
[08:48]   r m : http://vtrender.com/levels-and-plan-for-13th-oct/
[08:48]   Porus : GM
[08:58]   Sharad : GM all
[09:00]   Shai : GM all
[09:01]   Shai : http://vtrender.com/premium/orderflow-charts-and-notes-091014/
[09:07]   Shai : NF set to gap down at the open
[09:07]   Shai : There were no new sellers on friday
[09:07]   Shai : So we have to see if the morning session brings new sellers
[09:07]   Rahul G : hello shai GM
[09:07]   Rahul G : Hello all
[09:08]   Rahul G : shai how should we read the NF delta
[09:08]   Rahul G : is this the cumalative delta for the series
[09:08]   Shai : Have added 2 new files in the docs folder which is the cumulative for the swing
[09:09]   Shai : Swing is from the last known high in the NF and the BNF from the ast week of sept
[09:09]   Sharad : How to understand this Shai
[09:09]   Shai : Delta is the cumulative of all the individual charts in the premium section
[09:10]   Shai : It’s the same delta we track in the room except that it shws a cumulative fignure of the swing in the extreme left column
[09:11]   Shai : So NF is short still by 1044 minus despite some cobering seen on fri
[09:11]   Clay : gm all
[09:11]   Shai : BNF is short by -487
[09:11]   Shai : 3.30 tab on top is the cumulative delta of the day on the right
[09:12]   r m : Results today: Indusind bank, RIL, Sintex
[09:13]   r m : CPI after Market
[09:14]   Rahul G : okay thanks shai
[09:14]   r m : Chinese trade balance came down to 31B from 49.83B (expectation was 41B)
[09:14]   Shai : I’ll make a post and update n how to read the chart
[09:15]   Shai : let’s focus on the open for the moment
[09:16]   Kathir : GM shai RM and all friends
[09:16]   r m : Hi Kathir
[09:17]   Shai : OPen away from range and value
[09:17]   Shai : Most likely an OAOR
[09:18]   Shai : 7795 is ref level below
[09:18]   Shai : 7855 above
[09:18]   Shai : shorts in control though it will be risky to make new shorts here
[09:22]   Shai : NO signs of new shorts
[09:22]   Shai : Imbalance target is 7795
[09:23]   Shai : Idea would be to short higher near 7855 or 15420 with a samll sl for intra
[09:24]   r m : bnf took a rest at POC from 8th OCT
[09:26]   Shai : This is another holiday shortened week
[09:27]   Shai : wed closed for Mah elections
[09:27]   r m : ok
[09:31]   Kathir : @shai usd/inr sup res from here?
[09:32]   Shai : 61.58 res
[09:33]   Shai : can drop to 61.36/ 61.25
[09:33]   Kathir : ok thanks
[09:41]   Kathir : @shai views on infy will it go down for a correction
[09:46]   Shai : sure
[09:47]   Shai : Just a min – will pull up chart
[09:48]   Shai : NF delta becoming stronger
[09:48]   Shai : Again- no new selllers on the gap down
[09:50]   Kathir : ok
[09:50]   Sharad : Shai for last 3 days … when market fall Delta in huge plus and when up Delta in huge Negative
[09:50]   Shai : at 7830 – more likely we now trade t0 7855/ 7870 sl is 7814
[09:51]   Sumit : gm everyone
[09:52]   Chiranthan : Buy mow?
[09:52]   Chiranthan : now?
[09:52]   Shai : yes
[09:52]   Chiranthan : ok
[09:52]   Shai : sl of 7814- counter trend trade- smaller qty
[09:53]   Sharad : Sahi abou INFY can correct and how much ?
[09:56]   Shai : Sharad- last 3 days delta- http://screencast.com/t/dQFMz7WnIA
[09:56]   Shai : shorts came heavily on the rise up last week
[09:57]   Shai : some of them closed o fri
[09:57]   Sharad : ok
[09:58]   Shai : Most of these guys are not intra dayers
[09:59]   Shai : So I’ll keep updating the chart in the docs folder and that will lead us into how many shorts are actually in the system
[09:59]   r m : @Shai, Please adjust NF tick chart to show pink-green
[09:59]   Sharad : yes good idea
[09:59]   r m : Thanks
[10:00]   Sumit : new member in the group 🙂
[10:00]   r m : lol
[10:01]   Shai : Infy chart s taking sme time to load up- please bear
[10:01]   r m : they are all infy bears – will gladly bear 🙂
[10:01]   Shai : lol
[10:02]   Sharad : 🙂
[10:02]   Manik : 🙂
[10:02]   Shai : Infy 3992 res projected
[10:03]   Shai : a move below 3905 would mean shorts get a toes hold
[10:03]   Shai : supp below is 3792
[10:03]   Sharad : ok good
[10:04]   Kathir : lol
[10:05]   Kathir : infy fut?
[10:07]   Shai : that is infay cash
[10:07]   Shai : Infy*
[10:07]   Kathir : ok shai thanks
[10:08]   Shai : small excess seen in infy at 3954- shorts woud watch that
[10:16]   Shai : Buyers in NF delending the lower prices
[10:16]   Shai : Auction plays out as an OAOR with slight edge t the buyer
[10:17]   Shai : vwap band is compressed indicating local to local activiy
[10:18]   Shai : The delta breakup for the day is now on the right of the FP chart
[10:18]   Shai : sellers x buyers
[10:18]   Shai : cons is consolidated daily
[10:19]   Shai : Levels are the same as those posted in the premium section at the close every day
[10:20]   Shai : The market will be under contrl of buyers when the delta in the extreme left column of those charts is positive
[10:26]   Kathir : @shai bnf hypo 1 below 15460 15240 still exists..SL if so
[10:27]   Shai : 15514 short when u see pink
[10:28]   Kathir : 15514 Sl
[10:33]   Shai : Intra longs in NF book profits if price crosses the vwap band level of 7846 anytime
[10:33]   Shai : shorts could come back around 7855- 7870
[10:40]   Kathir : BNF PINK
[10:41]   Shai : 7865 is a false tick
[10:41]   Shai : 7844 is the traded high
[10:41]   Shai : yes BNF seeing sellers getting active
[10:42]   Shai : 430- 440
[10:51]   Shai : From 8180 spot to 7796 today the Nifty has dropped 384 points
[10:52]   Shai : Largest drop has been 430 points on avg
[10:53]   Shai : Fibo Ratrace guys looking at 7784 spot as supp which is the 61.8% of the leg up from 7540
[10:54]   Shai : 7764 is vwap of the Aug series
[10:54]   Shai : down 430 from 8180 spot will be 7750 spot
[10:56]   Shai : so this 7750- 7785 zone is a support base for a move which can go back to 7940- 7980 spot
[10:57]   Shai : delta is telling us that shorts are covering this leg down
[10:58]   Shai : it was -1044 a the open- (09:11) Shai :So NF is short still by 1044 minus despite some cobering seen on fri
[10:58]   Shai : of which 440 have gone
[10:58]   Shai : if ut remains by close
[11:37]   Amit J : shai your view on hindalco and tata steel
[11:38]   Amit J : i would buy from 3 mths perspective and not intraday. thanks
[11:50]   Shai : sure- a min
[11:54]   Shai : Tata steel is looking good for a bounce up
[11:55]   Shai : Recent buyers were at 463 and once that is crossed it is good for 514
[11:55]   Shai : at current levels as long as 429 holds it is stil a good risk reward
[11:57]   Shai : Hindlaco 153.5 is a better place for a buy into 179
[11:58]   Shai : looks tetative here ina range
[11:58]   Shai : but downside looks arrested for the time being
[11:59]   Narendra : shai view on jswsteel
[11:59]   Narendra : for swing trade
[12:02]   Shai : long?
[12:02]   Narendra : yep
[12:03]   Shai : at 1132 may not yet be confirming a bottom
[12:03]   Shai : likely to drift to 1112 1120
[12:04]   Narendra : ok
[12:04]   Shai : above 1154 shorts begin to cover and can bring 1188/ 1206
[12:05]   Amit J : Thanks shai
[12:06]   Shai : MW
[12:06]   Shai : Bears will look to protect 7843- 7849 spot today
[12:06]   Shai : Above 7849 there is a fast 40 point rise to 7889 and possibly 7910
[12:07]   Shai : NF intra dayers from 7830 book once in part near 7849 and keep or trail SL at 7829
[12:20]   Shai : 7870
[12:20]   Shai : book profits
[12:22]   Shai : done- (09:50) Shai :at 7830 – more likely we now trade t0 7855/ 7870 sl is 7814
[12:22]   Shai : spot at 7848
[12:23]   Shai : If 7855 F holds now and we climb abv 7870 then NF can go to 7902/ 7948
[12:24]   Shai : same as that 50 point trade spoken of on spot earlier
[12:29]   Chiranthan : Can enter fresh longs in NF now?
[12:29]   Shai : No wait
[12:29]   Chiranthan : ok
[12:29]   Shai : We will buy abv 7871 with sl below 7854
[12:29]   Shai : see the delta coming off the highs
[12:30]   Shai : the first red bar of the day in the NF 10 min chart
[12:31]   Sumit : rm, except for one small pink, it is so far so good
[12:31]   r m : yes
[12:31]   Shai : -609 wth today’s trading
[12:32]   r m : nf is behaving like an obedient child ( a rarity these days) 😀
[12:32]   Kathir : 🙂
[12:32]   Kathir : <(“)
[12:36]   Shai : Buyers coming in BNF
[12:37]   Amit J : good open by europe
[12:40]   r m : @Shai, that means BNF was bought till here by limit buyers who don’t appear in FP charts delta?
[12:43]   Shai : Yes RM limit buyers
[12:44]   Shai : Imp takeaway is that there were no aggressive shorters
[12:44]   Shai : both in BNF and NF
[12:44]   Shai : when price is moving down we want to see how many aggressive sellers climb aboard
[12:45]   r m : ok, thanks
[12:46]   Shai : refer thsi chart from thurs- prce rose but there were no buyers- http://vtrender.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/NF_vol_at_price_14.png
[12:47]   Shai : BNF can be a dip buy around 15460 for 15520/ 15555
[12:48]   Shai : No agresssive buyers**
[12:48]   Shai : ref 12.46
[12:48]   r m : yes
[12:48]   Shai : aggressive buyers are the ones who move the market- often same session but can happen in next 2- 3 sessions also
[12:49]   Shai : aggressive players*
[12:50]   Shai : at that 7990- 8008 level last week it did not make sense to carry longs to the next day and a put would have been very rewarding
[12:54]   Shai : RM you got that circular from NSE about wed holiday?
[12:54]   Shai : Dalal street will be closed surely as in every election
[12:55]   Shai : happened in May too
[12:55]   Narendra : bse circular is out but nse still pending
[12:55]   Shai : ok
[12:55]   Shai : SPX rising
[12:57]   r m : not so far Shai
[12:57]   Shai : ok RM
[12:58]   r m : they must be tired of holidays 🙂
[12:58]   r m : but election day is a mandatory holiday
[12:58]   Shai : Confusion on the US holiday too. Esignal says closed but looks like they are open today- http://screencast.com/t/NA7sWp6j2UQ
[12:58]   Shai : BNF slipped away
[12:58]   Kathir : confirmed with zerodha its holiday
[12:58]   Shai : yes holiday is certain
[12:58]   r m : ok, thanks Kathir
[13:00]   Kathir : shai buy nf
[13:01]   Shai : yes Buy
[13:01]   Shai : sl is 7853
[13:01]   Kathir : ok thanks
[13:01]   Shai : 7854*
[13:01]   Shai : BNF was a better buy – turned away from 475
[13:03]   Porus : shai, what target for nf?
[13:05]   Shai : 7903/ 7919/ 7947
[13:05]   Shai : we wull carry if we close abv 7970
[13:05]   Shai : my worry is that delta isno rising at these levels
[13:05]   Shai : 390 now
[13:06]   Manik : @ shai , 7880-7886 has been a support earlier , will that provide to be resistance ?
[13:07]   Amit J : 80% in banknifty?
[13:08]   Shai : yes Manik
[13:09]   Shai : Bull is safe abv 7910 only
[13:09]   Shai : spot
[13:09]   Manik : ok ,tnx
[13:09]   Shai : Can happen in BNF amit
[13:16]   Shai : NF back uptp 416
[13:16]   Shai : need more buyers or shorts to cover to get to 7903
[13:16]   Shai : 7854 is a base now
[13:17]   Shai : shorts would feel uncertain if 7854 holds
[13:17]   Shai : Maintain – (12:23) Shai :If 7855 F holds now and we climb abv 7870 then NF can go to 7902/ 7948
[13:18]   Shai : let the auction play out
[13:18]   Narendra : BNF AT POC
[13:22]   r m : @Sumit, your OF wave caught by NF 🙂
[13:23]   r m : bnf has not looked back since it crossed the OF Wave
[13:25]   Sumit : yes. good long green so far
[13:27]   Shai : 15640 cross in BNF should give 16000 this time
[13:28]   Shai : buy a 16000 ce if we close abv 15640 – price is around 105- 110
[13:28]   Shai : intra dayers should book 15640 once
[13:29]   Shai : near*
[13:30]   r m : @Manik, your favorite 15630 is back 🙂
[13:31]   Kathir : manik is having lunch 🙂
[13:31]   r m : ok 🙂
[13:42]   Manik : @ rm sorry was on lunch, firmly beleive in the sellers ard 15630:)
[13:45]   Amit J : 80% cleared super fast
[13:46]   r m : @Manik, yeah, I was wonderin why delta is not negative at 15630, then Kathir solved the mystery – you were at lunch 🙂
[13:46]   Manik : LOL
[13:47]   Shai : 7892- book 50% and raise TSL to 7868
[13:52]   Shai : yes 15640 is a struggle zone for the bull
[13:52]   Shai : hence recommending that CE on close abv it
[13:52]   Shai : 7899
[13:54]   Shai : rise is gettig sellers again
[13:54]   Shai : longs have to be careful
[13:54]   Shai : delta down from 584 ti 289 now on the rise
[13:57]   Shai : spot view- (12:06) Shai :Above 7849 there is a fast 40 point rise to 7889 and possibly 7910
[13:58]   Shai : Bulls will delight in a close abv 7848 spot
[14:01]   Manik : @ bears would delight below?
[14:01]   Manik : @ shai *
[14:02]   Shai : OF is showing bears closing
[14:02]   Shai : They will look to come at higher prices again
[14:03]   Shai : smart bears are selling the rises- (09:18) Shai :shorts in control though it will be risky to make new shorts here
[14:04]   Shai : too early for a diwali rally I think
[14:04]   Shai : one further dip down and then rally from thurs or fri would be apt
[14:05]   Manik : ok & thanks
[14:05]   Shai : Dax is trending higher
[14:05]   Shai : Open drive there
[14:06]   Shai : dax 5 min- http://screencast.com/t/Fjg4sEmdd
[14:08]   Shai : 7901 SL for all ths eholding
[14:11]   Shai : 7888 spot
[14:12]   Shai : 7919 F minor res o way to 7948
[14:12]   Shai : remeber this profile did not have many seller on friay
[14:12]   Shai : friday*
[14:12]   Shai : so path of least res is up
[14:13]   Narendra : 7901 now sl for nifty?
[14:13]   Shai : yes
[14:13]   Shai : (14:08) Shai :7901 SL for all those holding
[14:13]   Narendra : and bnf?
[14:14]   Amit J : trending day for banknifty. should consider till end?
[14:14]   Shai : 15610 in BNF
[14:15]   Shai : 15721 higher tgt in bnf – almost there
[14:15]   Shai : Yes Amit BNF is an ORR
[14:16]   Shai : so high probabaility close at highs
[14:16]   Shai : 15720- 15780 is a poorly traded zone
[14:16]   Amit J : cpi post mkt.
[14:16]   Shai : structure is not good in BNF
[14:16]   Shai : so may not be a good idea to carry longs
[14:18]   Shai : RIL after mkt hours too
[14:19]   r m : yep, WPI tomorrow during market hours at 12:00
[14:19]   Porus : shai, 16000ce still a buy if BN closes above15640?
[14:20]   Shai : Porus I’ll update on that closer to the close
[14:20]   Porus : pk
[14:20]   Porus : ok
[14:20]   Shai : We may get that CE tomorrow also
[14:21]   Shai : same palce
[14:23]   Shai : What is confirmed now in past 3 days of auction is that the seller does not want to initiate below 7850 and is content resting and selling closer t 7950- 8000
[14:24]   Shai : Vix at 14.5 – can drop a full point to 13.5
[14:26]   Shai : dax at 8830 now- still driving up
[14:26]   Shai : That should close up today near the highs on this open
[14:52]   Shai : BNF rise is being sold into
[14:52]   Shai : More likely BNF will go down to 15640/ 15522 tom
[14:52]   Shai : we will stay away from the 16000 ce for the moment
[14:53]   r m : 3IB day so theoretically tomorrow first hour should record day’s high
[14:54]   r m : if the open is in continuation of today’s auction
[14:54]   r m : PDH in BNF
[15:02]   Shai : exit NF longs
[15:02]   Shai : Not a lot of buyers seen abv VAH
[15:16]   Shai : delta has climbed down from 584 high to 186 now
[15:18]   Shai : swing is still with the sellers
[15:18]   Shai : those files include current day data upto now
[15:22]   Shai : in NF 7870 has to be visisted again tom in my opinion
[15:22]   Shai : and in BNF 15640 preferably 15520
[15:23]   Shai : then orderflow if positive can give us some good calls to buy
[15:23]   Shai : I think BNF will hold 15470- 15520 now for the rest of the series and look to move up
[15:24]   Shai : 15470- 15520 F
[15:26]   Porus : shai, can we capture the NF move to 7870 with a pe?
[15:26]   Shai : yes
[15:27]   Shai : 7800 pe will do
[15:27]   Shai : sl is 7947 F
[15:28]   Shai : today’s open move and gap down failed as fiday did not show selelrs in orderflow
[15:28]   Shai : chances of a gap down toay also less
[15:29]   Shai : NF needs to show more buyers but around 7870 for a bigger move up
[15:30]   r m : Thanks and bye folks, have a great evening 🙂
[15:30]   Chiranthan : Bye all
[15:30]   Porus : bye
[15:31]   Shai : Bye all
[15:32]   Shai : Have a nic eve
[15:32]   Clay : bye
[15:32]   Sharad : bye all