For the second month in a row the expiry session was anything but dull and produced a 114 point move this time in the upward direction as the market finished the series at the higher end of the range
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Nifty NOV F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points . In the current context the drop from the Nifty spot high of 8180 to the recent low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 which is a reference point and a market which tells us that it does not have new sellers. Short Term : The marked finished a full session above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot last wed. Support now placed at 8066 spot for the next week. 8222 spot is now short term resistance. Observations in Today’s session : (based on Fut prices) https://www.dropbox.com/s/4g5gs9rqde49cv9/Oct_NF.png?dl=0 #) A trend day which closed at the higher end #) The market found selling as it probed the region around 8215 Nov F #) vwap placed at 8183F #) Failed auction seen at 7752 F on 18/10 and is on day T+7. Hence the IPM off 7752 is a strong move as FA point was not visited. #) the day showed excess at 8118 as it finally moved away from the inside bar range aggressively at open today #) Pull back low was 8182. Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo 1 ) If NF auctions above 8214 tomorrow then the objective of the move is 8245-8251. Sl for this view would be 8179 Hypo2 ) Below 8179 the NF can drop to 8146. Sl fo this view is 8203. BankNifty NOV F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680Short term : .Support for the BN spot is now at 16300 spot this week followed by 16128. Resistance to the upside would be 16560 and 16720 this week.Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/r4rbs7x5ci8huw0/Oct_BNF.png?dl=0 #) An inside day which probed the extremes of yesterday’s profile #)Day type was a normal variation day which had a successful range extension above #) vwap of the day was at 16773
Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo1) If the auction moves above 16885 then BNF can target 17000 and 17210 as a higher target for the breakout. Sl for this view to play out will be 16818 Hypo2 )below 16788 the BNF can drop to 16696. |