Levels and Plan for 17/11

Background / Previous Auctions :

Medium Term :

We have maintained from  Friday May 16th that the  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.

The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16)  The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points .

In the current context the drop from the last  Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future..

Short Term : 

(On spot prices)

The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot . This region is also now new support over the short term.  The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index. Resistance likely to play out first near 8438 and if crossed near 8544-8580 spot.Support for the index in the coming week will be at 8361 and 8323.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF closed at the bracket high of 8417 with minor excess seen below 8370.

#) The profile chart shows a spike from 8393 to 8428. Auction can happen in the spike or above the spike highs

#) The business area remains 8410- 8325 even as the bracket is expanding upwards.

#) vwap placed at 8399 today

#) The range of the Move seems to be settling down now between 8260- 8514 F. Cmp 8516 NF

#) Failed auction seen at 7752 F  on 18/10. Hence the IPM off 7752 is a strong move as FA point was not visited.

#) We see buying excess at 8232 on 31/10 and at  8122 seen on 30/11. Both these points are supports for the short term trader.

#) Pull back low was at 8311 against the pull back low if 8182 seen on 30/10

#) Auction is now past the IPM stage and onto Step2 of the SteidlMayer distribution model

Hypothesis  : ( Based on Futures) 

Hypo1  ) If NF holds above spike high of 8429 then longs can be taken for 8448/ 8468 and 8492 with sl below 8407.

Hypo2 ) If the auction goes below 8393 then NF can drop to 8370 and 8355 Sl for this view is 8409.

BankNifty NOV F :

Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time.  Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 ( The BN hit 17651 on 13/11/14) 

Short term :

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week the auction has support at 17430 and at 17244 if 17430 gets broken down. Resistance to the upmove will be the same 17651. However a cross of 17651 can invite a higher target of 18067 spot before the Month runs out.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF saw buyers coming in strongly near yesterday lows of 17470 and pushed the index higher into the close

#) The aggressive seller at 17735 is partially neutralised and new lngs came back in the index today.

#) The day closed above the previous reference area of 17520 F

#) vwap of the day was at 17607

# 17540 is now intra day support and 17788 would be resistance.

#) Pull back low was 17024 on 31/10 and found new buyers there on 3/11 . 17024- 17040 is now a huge support for the BNF.

# Buying excess visible at 16856 F on 31/10 and value was created higher.

Hypothesis  : ( Based on Futures) 

Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 17705 it will head to 17788 and 17960. Sl for this view will be 17625.

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 17635 then it will fall to 17563. sl for this view is 17685.