Levels and Plan for 22/01/15

 Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

The Monthly charts are now projecting 8673 spot and 8825 as possible targets of the move above 8410- 8445 spot support band on closing basis. The Momentum will remain up this month till the spot closes below 8410 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

Upside resistance mentioned at 8581 and 8626 during the week are now supports. Higher time frame (monthly ) is in play and as long as we remain above 8626 likely to see second monthly target of 8825 spot.

For the current week, support rests at 8436- 8452. A Move below 8450 spot on volumes can lead to another potential long liquidation and drop the index to 8290 spot during the week.

Levels we will watching during the week on downsides are 8450, 8370- 8380 and 8310- 20.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was balanced and centered around the day POC of 8740F

#) Volume was 100 L  much lower than the 1265L seen yesterday

#) vwap of the day was at 8740 well above the  8660 of yesterday

#) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8703, 8684, 8666 and 8640 which need repair in the coming sessions

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8543 on – 19/01

#) There is another  failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01

#) The profile of 19/01 shows a prominent POC at 8574 which should be used by the market to assess fair value in coming sessions.

#) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8703 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8728 then it will move  to 8768 and 8813 . Sl for this view is at 8703 .

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8701  then it will move  to 8666 and 8643   Sl for this view will be 8734.

BankNifty JAN F :

Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

The monthly charts project 19800 and 20020 on the BN index by Jan end as long as price stays above 19050 on daily closing basis

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

19370- 19410 mentioned earlier this week are now supports. Spot hit 19800 already and if higher time frame continues then likely to see 20020 by next week.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was also balanced like the NF

#) Volumes were at 25.8 L compared to the  28.9 L yesterday

#) vwap was at 19923 against  the 19650 seen yesterday

#) Day shows anomalies in structure at 19752 and 19656

#) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19969 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions below 19969  then it will hit 19840/ 19749  . Sl for this view is 19995

Hypo2) If BNF auctions above  20010   then it can move to 20103 and 20190 .  Sl for this view is at 19969 now