Market Profile Analysis dated 19th Feb

Nifty Feb F:

NF gave an OL (Open=Low) start just below PDL (Previous Day Low) and drove back into yesterday’s Value initiating the 80% Rule as it probed higher making a high of 10712 in the ‘B’ period completing the 80% Rule. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then went on to balance in a narrow range for the next 4 periods as ‘C’ gave a pull back low at 10683 making a ledge at 10710 in the process and making a ‘p’ profile. NF then gave a range extension to the upside in the ‘G’ period as it got above yesterday’s selling tail of 10712 and continued to probe higher in the ‘H’ period as it completed the 1.5 IB range extension of 10743 making a high of 10756. The ‘I’ period stopped the OTF upside making an inside bar and the auction confirmed a reversal once the ‘J’ period broke below lows of ‘I’ and went on to close below VWAP & this break of VWAP after 2 PM indicated that initiative sellers are taking control of the auction. The next 2 periods ‘K’ & ‘L’ then trended lower as NF broke the morning pull back low & singles of 10683 and went on to break the OL of 10650 to confirm a Neutral Extreme Day as the auction made a low of 10606 completing the 1.5 IB range extension to the downside. NF made a final low of 10602 before closing at the lows and leaving a Neutral Extreme reference of 10602-10650 to watch in the next session.

• The NF Open was a Open Auction in Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 10704 F
• Vwap of the session was at 10690 with volumes of 101.8 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 10757-10602 for a range of 155 points
• NF confirmed a multi-day FA at 10946 on 12/02 and completed the 2 ATR move down of 10699. This FA is now on ‘T+6’ Days
• NF had left a FA at 10830 on 04/02 and completed the 2 ATR move up of 11073. This FA got tagged on ‘T+7’ days and is no longer support.
• NF had left a FA at 10710 on 04/01 and completed the 2 ATR move up on 15/01 and was strong support but closed below it today so no longer support.
• NF had left a FA at 10580 on 26/12 & completed the 2 ATR move up to 10862. This FA has not been tagged and is now strong support
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 06/02 11046 & 11035 was broken on 08/02 and the closed below them so now they are no longer support levels
• The Trend Day VWAP & POC of 31/01 is at 10793 & 10775 which was broken on 15/02 and the closed below them so now they are no longer support levels
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series is 10795 & 10823 respectively. The auction close below this today and remains weak below it.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series is 10796 & 10741 respectively. The auction close below this today and remains weak below it.
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series is 10480 & 10580 respectively.

You can check the monthly charts & other swing levels for Nifty & NF here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones (volume profile) are at 10656-10704-10747

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) NF has closed in a spike so if stays below 10621 at open can test lows of 10602 & 10586
b) Above 10622, NF can give a bounce to 10641 & 10650-659
c) Below 10585, NF gets weak for a probe down to 10568-566 and 10544
d) Acceptance above 10660 can see the auction move to 10683 & 10701
e) If 10544 is taken out in NF, then can expect 10525 & 10495-490 to be tagged

BankNifty Feb F:

BNF opened in the spike but drove higher to get into yesterday’s Value triggering the 80% Rule as the auction probed higher in the IB making a pretty big range of 240 points from morning lows of 26730 to make a high of 26970 just falling short of completing the 80% rule. (Click here to view the profile chart for better understanding) The auction then began to contract for the next 3 periods above VWAP as ‘C’, ‘D’ & ‘E’ all stayed inside the range of ‘B’ before BNF gave a range extension to the upside in the ‘F’ period and continued the probe higher in the ‘G’ making a high of 27033 completing the 80% probe. BNF went on to make new highs in the ‘H’ period as it tagged 27083 but fell short of the 1.5 IB range extension which was at 27090 plus it also closed off the highs after making a relatively small range. The ‘I’ period then made another narrow range bar indicating poor trade facilitation at highs and also made lower lows indicating that the auction may continue with the lower probe. The ‘J’ period continued the OTF to the downside making lower lows and closed just below the IBH and just above VWAP. (We have observed in the past that when the auction fails to tag the 1.5 IB even after staying above or below IBH or IBL for good time then the move to VWAP in the afternoon is a critical one as if VWAP is broken then there is good chance of the auction going back to the other extreme of the day) The ‘K’ period continued the trending move lower from day’s high to break below VWAP after which the ‘L period saw a big move down as BNF negated the morning tail of 26857 to 26730 as it went on to break below previous week’s low also. The ‘M’ period made a low of 26700 confirming a Neutral Extreme Down day in BNF leaving a zone of 26700-26750 to watch for the next session.

• The BNF Open was a Open Auction in Range (OAIR)
• The day type was a Neutral Extreme Day (Down)
• Largest volume was traded at 26945 F
• Vwap of the session was at 26924 with volumes at 29.2 L in a session which traded a High-Low range of 27084-26700 for a range of 384 points
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27384 on 12/02 and tagged the 2 ATR move down at 26736 on 15/02. This FA is currently on ‘T+5’ Days
• BNF confirmed a FA at 27716 on 23/1 and completed the 2 ATR move down hence is now strong resistance
• The VWAP & POC of Jan Series 27236 & 27514 respectively. The auction has closed below both of them.
• The VWAP & POC of Dec Series 26713 & 26832 respectively. The auction broke below the VWAP almost tagging the POC and closed around it.
• The VWAP & POC of Nov Series 25686 & 26218 (Spot) respectively

For the Monthly charts & other swing levels for BankNifty & BNF click here & for the weekly charts & analysis, please click here.

Daily Zones:

• • Value zones ( volume profile) are at 26772-26945-27012

Hypos / Estimates for the next session:

a) BNF closed as a Neutral Extreme so if stays below 26750 at open can probe lower to 26685 and 26643-636
b) BNF has immediate resistance at 26775 above which it can tag higher levels of 26835-855 and 26900-925
c) Below 26635, the auction gets weaker for a test of 26593-550 and 26510-500
d) BNF now has major resistance at 26945 above which it can probe higher to test 27005 and 27060 again
e) On the lower side, if BNF manages to break 26500, then lower levels of 26445-440 & 26390 could be seen

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