I'll be posting the chat transcripts every day after the market closes.
[08:50] r m: Good Morning folks!
[08:53] Pasi C: GM all
[08:53] Pasi C: hi rm
[08:54] r m: IIP Numbers due today
[08:54] r m: Hi Pasi
*** Shai C, Welcome to the Vtrender conference room!
[09:03] Shai C: GM all
[09:11] Vicky M: GM everyone 🙂
[09:11] Vicky M: hi rm 🙂 shai 🙂 pasi
[09:11] Pasi C: Hi vicky
[09:12] r m: Hi Shai, Vicky 🙂
[09:13] Vicky M: gap down?
[09:13] r m: premarket suggests that
[09:17] r m: who printed that 5056? 🙂
[09:17] Shai C: open out of range and value
[09:18] Vicky M: 4926 coming..?
[09:19] Shai C: looks like an open auction
[09:19] Shai C: no new aggressive selling yet
[09:24] Shai C: yesterday's big volumes at 4966/74 should stop up movements today and are a good stop for shorts
[09:32] j g: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/RBI-tells-exporters-to-sell-dollars-to-give-rupee-a-leg-up/articleshow/13090156.cms
[09:32] j g: that means equities, commodities will shoot up?
[09:33] Shai C: iip at 11 today?
[09:33] r m: yes
[09:33] j g: yes to what rm?
[09:33] j g: me or shai?
[09:33] r m: iip 🙂
[09:33] Shai C: jg that is news of yesterday
[09:34] Shai C: as they say now it is in the price 🙂
[09:34] j g: news of yday evening?
[09:34] r m: @Janak, you know that i have absolutely no idea about where equities commodities will be in the next minute, leave aside a longer time frame 🙂
[09:34] r m: @Janak, yesterday morning
[09:35] r m: it was already out when USDINR opened for trading yesterday
[09:37] Shai C: yes brought the USD from 54 to 53.5
[09:38] Shai C: an equivalent NF position of say 40 lots would have made you about 12k
[09:38] Shai C: I think I phrased that wrongly, let me try again
[09:39] Shai C: an investment worth 50 k of 2 lots of NF is equal to about 40 lots in USD-INR
[09:43] Pasi C: bu
[09:43] Pasi C: but volumes r less in usd-INR comparative to NF
[09:45] r m: @Pasi, currency futures are traded in more than one exchange and the bulk currency transactions are outside exchanges between banks
[09:45] j g: shai whats the outlook for silver in next 7 days?
[09:47] Shai C: Pasi the USDINR is very liquid
[09:48] Shai C: I've seen extremely good bid-ask prints
[09:48] Shai C: .0025 spread maintains through all
[09:49] Shai C: JG not looked at the chart in a while
[09:49] r m: even options trade with spread between .0025 to .0050
[09:49] Shai C: yes
[09:50] Shai C: and it's just 1200- 1500 per lot as margin
[09:50] r m: yes
[09:53] j g: shai – that means if I buy 1 lot at 53 (in rs. 1500 margin) and sell at 53.5 – how much will be the profit after brok + tax?
[09:54] r m: it is a lot of 1000, rest you can calculate 🙂
[09:54] j g: so 1000 x 0.50 = 500 rs? how much brok + taxes cut in rkg?
[09:56] r m: don't know about currency transactions on rkg, have never traded there
[09:57] j g: where do u trade currency?
[09:57] r m: have not traded currency futures anywhere, just tested trading currency options on zerodha
[09:57] j g: enlighten sir enlighten with the help of an example
[09:57] Shai C: brokerage should be the same as your NF
[09:58] r m: brokerage is nominal there, so if you can catch .50 movement in USDINR you need not worry about brokerage part 🙂
[09:58] Shai C: .03 is the industry standard
[09:58] Shai C: so buy at 50 should break even at 50.05
[09:58] j g: so shai 1 lot of rs. 1500 can give around 400 rs. profit for a movement of .50?
[09:59] r m: .01% or 20 rs per trade (lesser one) are the rates in zerodha
[09:59] Shai C: except that traders plat for 10- 20 points with 40-100 lots
[09:59] Shai C: *play
[09:59] j g: u mean .20 pts
[09:59] Shai C: say 53.67 to 53.78 is a trade
[10:00] Shai C: don't expect 1 rupee movement
[10:00] Shai C: avg range is 0.40- 0.50
[10:01] Shai C: we will have orderflow alerts to mobiles from next week
[10:01] r m: and always gamble above 54 for RBI intervention with 53PE 🙂
[10:01] Shai C: OF has caught all the moves
[10:02] Shai C: avg 50 paise gain with 1 whipsaw last week
[10:02] r m: yes, waiting for OF signals to begin trading with options
[10:02] j g: so if i trade 10 lots – it requires 15k margin and .11 pts means – .06 x 10000 = 600 rs profit?
[10:03] Vicky M: [09:18] Vicky M: 4926 coming..?
[10:03] r m: @Vicky, good judgement
[10:03] Vicky M: thanks rm 🙂
[10:04] j g: currency will be NSE or MCX?
[10:04] j g: scrip?
[10:04] Pasi C: nse jg
[10:05] r m: in nse you need to get currency trading enabled, the segment is CDS – currency derivatives
[10:05] r m: in mcx your commodity account is ready to trade currency futures but not options
[10:06] j g: scrip name in mcx?
[10:06] Shai C: If you do it in NSE you can use your NF margins
[10:07] j g: shai – with rkg, u can use margins both for nse/mcx on the same odin account
[10:07] r m: @jg, simple – USDINR 🙂
[10:08] r m: i think rkg can give you nse trading too with now software for currency tading
[10:10] Pasi C: IB trade now
[10:10] j g: rm cant see USDINR in nse? future or idx – i am dumb man
[10:10] Pasi C: day low sl
[10:12] r m: @JG, are you using ODIN?
[10:12] j g: yes
[10:12] r m: i don't now about rkg, i don't have currency trading enabled there
[10:13] r m: In angel's odin, you need to select MCX and then FUTCOM then USDINR and then series
[10:16] j g: ok got it – but i guess i need to request them to enable it
[10:17] r m: then nse is the better option
[10:17] j g: ?
[10:17] r m: you get options to trade too 🙂
[10:18] j g: it will be under NSE equities?
[10:18] j g: or futures?
[10:18] r m: although NSE currency trading needs to be done in NOW
[10:18] r m: not in ODIN
[10:18] j g: oh
[10:19] r m: ODIN owned by MCX, they have shut out NSE from currency trading on their software 😀
[10:19] j g: !
[10:19] Shai C: mkt is on both sides of vwap.
[10:20] j g: mkt being a diplomatic politician here
[10:20] Shai C: No consensus, though buyers have to do the word to bring it abv pdl and then val
[10:57] Shai C: 4974 is the ref line above
[11:03] Vicky M: 4895 coming?
[11:03] Shai C: -3.5 %?
[11:04] Vicky M: yes
[11:04] Vicky M: y/y
[11:04] Vicky M: earlier 4.1
[11:04] Shai C: March industrial output -3.5 pct y/y vs Reuters forecast +1.5 pct y/y;
[11:05] Vicky M: Shai is it going to be a trend day (negative/down)
[11:07] Shai C: vwap is SL
[11:07] Shai C: initial move down is done, now the real move is awaited
[11:08] Shai C: first reaction knocked off 30 points
[11:13] Shai C: 4930 had the volumes on that move down
[11:13] Shai C: is DPOC now
[11:21] Jitender Chhabra: CHINA IIP AT +9.3 V/S EXPECTED 12.2
[11:24] r m: HVNs from the past – 4874/4867/4850/4828 (10-16JAN2012) though amibroker's HVNs are not known for accuracy 🙂
[11:27] Shai C: 4840-50 is the major HVN
[11:27] r m: Thanks
[11:29] Shai C: not really big selling after IIP
[11:29] r m: yep
[11:29] Shai C: but no buyers seen yet
[11:31] r m: buyers will appear across the globe at the same time though news event will be different everywhere 🙂
[11:31] Shai C: 🙂
[11:32] Shai C: Euro is in the timing band for a cycle bottom next week
[11:32] r m: ok
[11:32] Shai C: 53.81
[11:33] Shai C: 4900 pe holding up
[11:33] Shai C: 5000 pe have started to cut
[11:34] r m: yes, with three weeks left for expiry writer's don't seem too anxious
[11:37] r m: chipping at the bottom, 4900 life is in danger 😀
[11:38] Shai C: at the start of the series major OI was built at 5000 PE
[11:38] r m: ok
[11:38] Shai C: now it is 4900
[11:38] Shai C: so writers are not expecting big UP move in May
[11:39] r m: yes
[11:39] r m: 5200CE is matching 4900PE in OI
[11:45] Shai C: vwap bands are extended . Mkt at 2sd now
[11:46] Shai C: but downmove for the day is over only when we cross IBL-vwap
[12:05] Shai C: divergence between the NF and the BN
[12:06] Shai C: lower lows v/s higher lows
[12:17] Shai C: Bn eneters value
[12:24] Pasi C: 4900 PE not loosing value
[12:27] Shai C: 4900 pe/ ce evenly priced
[12:28] Shai C: BN has to stay abv val to complete the IB band trade
[12:28] Shai C: a rejection at VAL can send it down again
[12:28] Shai C: 9360/ 9380 are objectives
[12:33] r m: An interesting take on BASEL III norms – author says that it could trigger recession – http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/k-kanagasabapathy/article3405002.ece?homepage=true
[12:38] Shai C: somthing is weird here
[12:39] Shai C: I hope we don't get the friday up/down madness
[12:42] Pasi C: my n short sl saved narrowly ie.9347
[12:42] Pasi C: *bn
[12:47] Pasi C: ooops my stop in danger again?
[13:07] Pasi C: NF below DPOC&VWAP
[13:07] Pasi C: BN abv DPOC&VWAP
[13:16] Shai C: it's rotating
[13:23] Pasi C: [12:28] Shai C: 9360/ 9380 are objectives
[13:31] Shai C: Pasi it's the IB band trade- 80 % sucess rate
[13:33] Shai C: third pane in blue- http://www.vtrender.com/sites/default/files/HW_IB_Breakout.png
[13:33] Shai C: has happened today in BN
[13:33] Shai C: BTW NF missed 2IB by 2 points- downside break has 90 % success rate
[13:36] Pasi C: bn can target VAH ie.9483?@shai
[13:37] Shai C: no don't tk new longs here
[13:37] Shai C: abv vwap band risk of fall is higher
[13:39] Pasi C: ok
[13:42] Shai C: Nf also doing IB band trade
[13:44] Shai C: done
[13:58] Pasi C: what is SSTAT@shai
[13:59] Shai C: New NF buy can be taken abv 4955
[13:59] Shai C: session stats
[13:59] Shai C: depicts the number on the right margin
[14:01] Pasi C: u mean 53 in first pane?
[14:03] Shai C: yes
[14:03] Shai C: The BN orderflow buy is nearing 100 points
[14:04] Shai C: USDINR is doing the IB band trade.
[14:07] Shai C: this is a reverse friday in a long long time
[14:07] Shai C: …iof it stays this way
[14:11] r m: 2IB on both sides!
[14:11] r m: well, almost 2IB 🙂
[14:15] Shai C: Now BN is looking tired
[14:23] Shai C: keep sl for longs at 4950/ 9430
[14:23] j g: critical moment, pt
[14:23] Shai C: BN is not giving me confidence for longs
[14:23] j g: this can straightaway do 50 pts on either side
[14:23] j g: nf
[14:24] Shai C: it didn't give confidence for shorts earlier
[14:24] j g: shai 3ib, vwap band and pink – what else do u need for a short at 9511?
[14:24] Shai C: JG, yes it's a friday. NF does not have a weekend without scaring the life out of traders
[14:24] j g: now it will do 5001?
[14:25] j g: or 4901 is still on?
[14:25] Shai C: is long abv IBhigh
[14:25] Shai C: weaknes if VAL breaks
[14:26] j g: its been many days we saw nf tank 50-100 pts in 2 min.
[14:28] j g: this is just the place
[14:29] j g: tug of….
[14:30] r m: this is battle of 4950 – more important than Siachin heights 🙂
[14:34] Shai C: it's been the BN show today
[14:34] Shai C: clearly pulling NF everywhere
[14:34] j g: shai if vwap breaks – 4906?
[14:34] Shai C: IB band trade again
[14:35] r m: is it a neutral variation day?
[14:35] Shai C: neutral center or neutral extreme
[14:35] r m: ok, looks like i coined a new MP term 🙂
[14:35] Shai C: 🙂
[14:36] Pasi C: lol rm
[14:36] Shai C: dpoc stayed flat in past 2 hours
[14:38] j g: go nf go
[14:38] Pasi C: go down? jg
[14:38] Pasi C: if it goes further down it will go to godown
[14:39] r m: any extreme will do, Janak wants 50 points 🙂
[14:40] Pasi C: ok rm
[14:52] j g: ?
[14:52] j g: charts
[15:04] j g: bears take the control finally
[15:05] Vicky M: [14:34] Shai C: IB band trade again
[15:06] r m: netral center – dpoc came up on Janak's selling 🙂
[15:06] r m: *neutra;
[15:06] r m: *neutral 🙂
[15:07] Shai C: 23 mins
[15:07] Shai C: can see some panic
[15:07] r m: yes, looks like that
[15:08] j g: if nf goes back to 4900 = rm will say "khaya piya kuch nahin, glass toda…."
[15:08] r m: lol
[15:08] j g: 🙂
[15:11] Shai C: Bn wants to do IB band trade
[15:13] j g: blue of guys in action
[15:14] j g: i think OTF are buying this mkt around 4900 shai?
[15:14] j g: or short covering?
[15:17] Shai C: profile is neutral center
[15:17] Shai C: so I'm not carrying anything
[15:18] Shai C: take a fresh view on Mon
[15:19] Shai C: [10:57] Shai C: 4974 is the ref line above
[15:19] Shai C: worked like a charm today
[15:19] Shai C: 9330/ 4938 imp for mon