Some interesting feedback on the Expiry calculations done here yesterday.
But allow me to gently tell you, that now that the market is open, we trade on the information available. As traders we live in the “Now”.
So though we are tar-getting 4985-4995, let’s remember the order flow coming to our screens today should communicate to us our yesterday’s targets.
Supports are at 4887 NF and 4862 and resistances at 4935 and 4968 NF of May.
Trade well.
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10.00.
First resistance at 4935 playing out.
I have edited the second resistance to 4968 NF ( May ). Please note.
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10.32
Early signs of a trend day developing.If this is true then the market should not come below 4930 NF (may) today.
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12.42
Markets are playing out at 4970 levels.
I suggest partial booking of longs here.
We may still get to 4995 levels.Those who want to hold can hold with a SL below 4950 Nifty spot levels and I suggest to move to June Future here.
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13.43
Deepak asks,
Dear Shai as per your old post i was checking the close this expiry – the range comes to 4828 to 5006 – since the OI in 4900 puts and 5000 calls is very high – based on your analysis the closing should be close to 5006 – can we assume closing to be at 4990 levels – best regards Deepak
I made the post yesterday: http://vtrender.blogspot.com/2010/05/nifty-expiry.html.
Based on Open Interest the projected high was to be 4991 NF. We made it to 4972 so far. I had also pointed out that 4968 was to be a resistance area and I put in a post to book some longs there.
Why didn’t I wait for my target of 4991 ?
It’s only two words. Risk : Reward.
At resistance or supports you evaluate whether you are still getting a good deal out of your position.The lower support was 4951 twenty points away and the target was also 20 points away. So I suggested we take some profits.
The actual support is 4930 NF but the risk reward did not suggest giving the market back 40 points to get a gain of 20 points.Not good business in my opinion.
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