Over the weekend, Viren had posted an interesting chart about the Point of control for the series holding price down and a flat market for the week.
Unfortunately the profit for the straddle has been severely affected by a rampaging Vix which has put paid to hopes of a theta decay for most writers from last week.
But the importance of the chart for direction cannot be undermined.
The Vix range for expiry tomorrow is 5500- 5381 and the market should operate within that range tomorrow provided we do not have another 10 % bump-up in the Vix during the day.
The values developed for the series are 5385-5475-5553.
5475 has been a pivot around which most of the trading has been happening and attempts to break down below 5429 have been stopped by an adamant VWAP which has converted those moves into day lows right around there !
Very clearly fresh downward impetus will be below 5385 and upward bias will resume over 5553 for the month of March.
My charts indicate new shorts in march futures at current levels, could also be rollovers, and we would wait for price to confirm that downward bias.
For tomorrow, there is a 30 point trade above 5460 to consider, a 20 point trade below 5427 and a further 30 points from there to work out of.