Levels and Plan for 02/02/15

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

There is another failed auction at the lows on 19/01 at 8530 which should form another supporting base for the index

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

For the coming week the Nifty should be looking to get supports in the 8701- 8728 spot zone.

Resistances to the upmove will be at 8883 and then 8930/60.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile trended lower from the Open

#) vwap of the day was at 8992

#) Profile of 30/01 confirms what we stated based on the 28/01 profile that the up auction is moving into a sideways mode and price adjustments.We looks forward to the anomaly adjustments noted below.

#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 which may suggest a move up to 8958 to check for business interests before any significant moves either way.

#) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan.

#) Day Profile of 20/01 shows anomalies in structure at 8733, 8714, 8686 which need repair in the coming sessions

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8590 on – 19/01 which has not been revisited and hence a support for FEB

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8890 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8890  then it will move to 8918  and only above 8919 the move is to 8950 and 8985 possibly  . Sl for this view is at 8962  .

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8861 then it will move  to 8924 and 8776  Sl for this view will be 8890.

BankNifty FEB F :

 Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

BN weakened considerably last week by exhibiting a drop below 20050 levels. We now feel that a test of support is called for in the 19250 to 19500 zone before any more upsides.

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week resistance to any move would be 19980- 20050 levels. Further upsides in the index possible only if 20050 is scaled on closing basis.

19760 was an important level which got hit in friday’s selloff. We believe the structure below 19760 is very poor inviting quick drops to 19416 and 19232 during the week.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile trended lower all day

#) vwap was at 20280 today with volumes of 40.3 L

#) The profile left behind anomalies at 20128 and 20360 in the Feb F

#) Anomalies in the profile of 27/01 at 20482 were repaired

#) VPOC placed at 20256.

#) Long excess seen at 19700 on 21/01 is support on any pullbacks

#) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 20150 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If BNF auctions above  20150   then it can move to 20254 and 20396 again  .  Sl for this view is at 19971 now

Hypo2)  IF BNF auctions below 20150  then it will move to 19950  and 19890  . Sl for this view is 20208