Levels and Plan for 02nd Mar

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we are still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.

On the Monthly scale we are tracking 8750 as support through March. The Objectives of the run up are at 9036 then 9156 and finally 9280. Since the market is swinging up in 900 point increments the run off above 8668 can target 9568 at a later date.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 01/03)

(On spot prices)

For the holiday shortened first week of March the support on any declines will be at 8856 and  8798 during the week.  However there would be visible loss of momentum if 8856 breaks for any reason. Strategy is to buy dips till 8856 holds.

Resistances above are at 9036 and 9156 during the week.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile met friday’s huge buyers at 8794- 8810 with heavier buyers

#) vwap of the day was at 8904 with volume of 275.7 L.

#) Profile closed as a Neutral extreme .

#) High volume buying seen between 8810- 8888 during the sessions and dips to 8870/80 should be seeing a cushion of support here

#) Failed auction noted at 8752 on 27/02

#) The NF finished in Imbalance at close with 2 time frames visible.

#) Late long liquidation was seen at 8888- 8890

#) A failure to overcome 8990 in the opening session should bring a retest of 8930 which is a buy Opportunity.

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Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8996 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above  8996 then it should move  to 9030  immediately  and above 9030 the imbalance objective is 9100 F . Sl for this view will be 8984

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below 8980 then it should drop to 8930 immediately and below 8930 the imbalance objective is at 8888/70 . Sl for this view is 8994.

BankNifty Mar F :

Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 01/03)

(based on spot prices)

Last week the expected short covering happened above series vwao of 19204- 19277 and the BN trended higher to close the week.

In the coming week 19970 is the resistance but all declines to 19300 should be used to build long positions as shorts of Jan and Feb begin to cover.

Levels wise we expect 19377 spot to be a key support in coming week.There is also an easy 200 point long trade above 19784 to 19970.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile got the cushion of support from Friday Buyers noticed at 19140.

#) vwap was at 19422  with volumes of 71 L

#) Profile shows strong buying coming between 19480 and 19680 which should cushion any falls in coming sessions

#) Huge buying volumes were also seen at 18910- 18935 and 19000 and 19145 in the BNF o 27/02

#) Anomaly at 19592 and 19520  needs a visit and repair

#) Imbalance objective of the move is higher at 20240

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Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19950 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above  19950  then it should move to 20066 and above 20066 the imbalance is to 20252  . Sl for this view is 19838

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below  19920 at open then it can move to 19687 and below 19687 the move is to 19590/ 520  .  Sl for this view is at 19960.