The nifty trended lower for the second straight day from the value created over the past few days . The market is still in imbalance
|Nifty DEC F|
|Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points. In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty has run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 to 8626 measures 903 points.
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.
Short Term :
(On spot prices)
The Nifty has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. This region is also now new support over the short term. The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index.
Our yearly target of 8580 spot has been hit and the Nifty’s reaction at this price point has been that of consolidation at the highs which increases the chances of further upsides as sellers not seen capable to drive prices lower yet.
Our preferred scenario of a consolidation move for 8- 12 sessions is playing out fully and we wait for a Santa rally around Dec 18- 20 to drive the index in the next leg up.
As of the moment, upside is open till 8748- 8788 for dec above 8625 cross . Downsides for dec should be restricted to lows of 8400- 8349 spot where buyers should respond again. (The level of 8349 was hit in trade on Dec9th and we wait for confirmation here)
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF continued lower from the multi day balance fr the second straight day in an auction continuation.
#) The break below previous support of 8540- 8550 is on heavy volumes and the market is still in imbalance.
#) The objective of the imbalance below 8550 is towards 8448F . However if buyers do not show up at 8448 F then NF can drop to 8377F.
#) Scene of the crime point is at 8552F and will serve as resistance over the next few sessions.
#) The market was successful in auctioning below the Failed auction point of 8540 (2/12)noted earlier last week.
# Previous Bracket high of 8516-8492F tried to absorb the selling pressure but the NF closed at the low point of the day in a double distribution.
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8356 then it will move to 8271 . Sl for this view is 8387
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8412 then it can auction up to 8440 and 8478 F. Sl for this view is 8376.
BankNifty DEC F :
|Background/ Previous Auctions :
Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. Our 2014 target of 17680 has been met. Larger Imbalance objective above 17680 works out to 18700- 18934. (The High made on 07/12 was at 18875 spot.) Meanwhile 17680 – 17710 is developing as a nice base and a support line for the medium term
Short term :
(based on spot prices)
For the current week the auction has support at 18618 Resistance to the upmove will be at 18934. Auction is positive above 18300 spot and should find dip buyers as long as 18300 is held.
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a double distribution trend day which closed at the lower end.
#) vwap was placed at 18514 at the close and the BNF auctioned below it all day
#) Auction hit the FA point of 18404 today
#) The imbalance objective below 18580 support band is 18400 and 18328 F. Sl would be at 18720 F.
#) On 02/12 we see a failed auction at 18404 F which is a ref point for the coming sessions
#) excess seen at 18240 on 28/11
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions below 18400 then it can drop to 18301 . sl for this view is 18450.
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions above 18450 then it can rise t 18510 and 18543. Sl for this view is 18399.