Levels and Plan for 10th March

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we are still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.

On the Monthly scale we are tracking 8750 as support through March. The Objectives of the run up are at 9036 then 9156 and finally 9280. Since the market is swinging up in 900 point increments the run off above 8668 can target 9568 at a later date.

(Update 08/03/15)

Post the RBI surprise the Nifty attempted 9119 just short of the 9156 estimate but failed to sustain above 9036 in the closing hour. The long liquidation which followed changed the short extreme short term and the market will have to dip lower to meet new buyers. Since the market looks to correct in 400- 450 point increments , we maintain 8750 stated above as a good place to buy all dips for the Medium Term..

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 08/03)

(On spot prices)

For the second week of March resistance will play out in the Nifty between 8954- 8980 . Only a close above this band will negate some bearish momentum prevalent since wednesday.

Support lower is at 8825- 8844 price band and if this band does not support then Nifty can find security at the discussed 8752- 8770 band.

(update 09/03/05)

The Nifty tested the weekly support of 8752 spot today on the long liquidation. However buying attempts at the lows were feeble and the market may drift down again after a small rise. Any rise which fails to take out 8790 spot on the swing up could mean a further fall to 8679 and 8473.

Resistance weekly revised to 8790 and 8844 and supports to 8679 and 8589

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile saw thursday’s buyers closing off positions very early at 8920 and further long liquidation at hypo estimate of 8855

#) A third round of selling was seen at 8828 F in the afternoon

#) vwap of the day was at 8936 with volume of 149.5 L.

#) Day type was a trend day which closed at lower end

#) Day Profile shows excess from 8866 to 8920 F

#) Sellers were not seen liquidating at the close today

#) Scene of the crime was at 9063 F  on 05/03.

#) 9062 is also an anomaly which needs repair

#) In the extreme short term any rise to 9062 – 9080 is a short trade with SL above Pull back highs of 9105 for a revisit to test the original buyers of the first  auction at 8810 F.

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#) Anomalies below at 8881 and 8830 repaired

#) Failed auction noted at 8752 on 27/02

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8765 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below  8765  then it should move  to 8724 and  below 8724 the drop extends to 8616 F. Sl for this view is 8795

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above  8820  then it should move to 8860  and 8888 . Sl for this view is 8790.

BankNifty Mar F :

 Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 08/03)

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week the BN has resistance at 19900 spot. Support lower is at 19410 during the week. However if 19376 breaks during the week then it will drop to 19277- 19204 immediately and 18872 if support at 19200 breaks

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile met sellers at the open near VAL and dropped lower all day

#) vwap was at 19415 again with volumes of  34.4 L

#) Big Volume aggressive Sellers seen at 19576 , 19496 and 19376 in the afternoon

#) The Objective of the move down below is at 19112F

#) Anomalies in the  auction of 04/03  is at  20112

#) Pull back high of the day is at 20312 which is short term resistance below 20740 now.

#) Anomalies mentioned below at 19520 and 19592 were visited.

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#) Break of 20250 triggered massive changes in structure and even the previous day buyers at 19960- 19985 were swept away in the down auction. of 04/03.

#) The Previous FA point in BNF is at  19883F .

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19219 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions below  19219   then it should move to 19112  and 19008   . Sl for this view is 19314

Hypo2) If BNF auctions above   19360   then it can move to 19492 and 19620   .  Sl for this view is at 19276.