| Nifty FEB F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.
Weekly levels :
(On spot prices)
For the coming week first support is the previous highs of 8623 in the spot. If 8623 spot breaks the Nifty opens a potential 200 point downside to 8423 – 8450 with only a support of 8530 FA point in between.
A close above 8636 should negate some weakness during the week and set the market up for a 8751 spot visit during the week.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a 2 way auction which closed at vwap #) vwap of the day was at 8603 with volume of 170 L. #) short covering was visible on the dip to 8520 levels and could be an early sign of the auction not accepting those prices #) For the coming session we expect prices to remain drifting around 8610 levels
#) Profile of 30/01 confirms what we stated based on the 28/01 profile that the up auction is moving into a sideways mode and price adjustments.We looks forward to the anomaly adjustments noted below. #) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 . #) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan. #) All anomalies pointed out in previous posts have been repaired
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8626 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8596 then shorts remain in control for 8570 and upto 8552. Sl for this view is 8618
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8626 then it will move to 8643 and 8683. Sl for this view will be 8595.
BankNifty FEB F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
BN weakened considerably last week by exhibiting a drop below 20050 levels. Profile showed a HVN at 18750 spot holding up the index 18270 is now the immediate support below 18700 spot
Weekly levels :
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we close above 19150 spot. Even then it has to still negotiate supply around the 19280- 19380 spot zone.
Friday low of 18740 is support followed by 18200-18250 right below it. A move below 18575 spot should set up an easy 350 point trade to 18210 spot.( day low of 10/02 was 18226 spot)
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was 2 time frame which closed at the higher end #) vwap was at 18763 today with volumes of 55.3 L #) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F #) today’s profile projects 19242 short term in the BNF as long as we stay above 18740 F now
#) The profile of 30/01 left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F #) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256. #) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610 #) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18745 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 18805 then it will move to 18944 and 19062 . Sl for this view is 18745
Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 18744 then it can move to 18660 and 18525 . Sl for this view is at 18800 now |