The Nifty traded all day around last series vwap of 8752 before closing slightly lower at 8712 today. The Banks had broken the series vwap yesterday.
We try discussing 3 different auctions of the Medium term, weekly and the intra day in the following paras for both Nifty and BankNifty
| Nifty MAR F
|
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we are still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 8200 now.
On the Monthly scale we are tracking 8750 as support through March. The Objectives of the run up are at 9036 then 9156 and finally 9280. Since the market is swinging up in 900 point increments the run off above 8668 can target 9568 at a later date.
(Update 08/03/15)
Post the RBI surprise the Nifty attempted 9119 just short of the 9156 estimate but failed to sustain above 9036 in the closing hour. The long liquidation which followed changed the short extreme short term and the market will have to dip lower to meet new buyers. Since the market looks to correct in 400- 450 point increments , we maintain 8750 stated above as a good place to buy all dips for the Medium Term..
Weekly levels : (first updated 08/03)
(On spot prices) For the second week of March resistance will play out in the Nifty between 8954- 8980 . Only a close above this band will negate some bearish momentum prevalent since wednesday.
Support lower is at 8825- 8844 price band and if this band does not support then Nifty can find security at the discussed 8752- 8770 band.
(update 09/03/05)
The Nifty tested the weekly support of 8752 spot today on the long liquidation. However buying attempts at the lows were feeble and the market may drift down again after a small rise. Any rise which fails to take out 8790 spot on the swing up could mean a further fall to 8679 and 8473.
Resistance weekly revised to 8790 and 8844 and supports to 8679 and 8589
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a lack of decisive buying volume all day before a spike into the close #) Sellers were seen at 8752- 8768 zone in the mid part of the session. #) vwap of the day was at 8770 with volume of 120.5 L. #) Day type was a neutral day which closed at center #) Spike zone of the close was 8712- 8778F. Spike rules apply at open. #) We await a strong trending day to come from this profile and will use value areas for bias #) The Nifty F tested the expiry day lows today and rose higher into the close in a spike #) Imbalance below spike lows targets 8616 F.
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————– #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 8866 to 8920 F #) Scene of the crime was at 9063 F on 05/03. #) 9062 is also an anomaly which needs repair
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 8712 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8712 then it should move to 8675 and below 8672 the drop extends to 8616 F. Sl for this view is 8745
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8778 then it should move to 8815 and 8860 . Sl for this view is 8743.
BankNifty Mar F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- 18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.
Weekly levels : (first updated 08/03)
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week the BN has resistance at 19900 spot. Support lower is at 19410 during the week. However if 19376 breaks during the week then it will drop to 19277- 19204 immediately and 18872 if support at 19200 breaks
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile attempted to stay above VAL till mid afternoon but was met by sellers in afternoon trade #) vwap was at 19227 again with volumes of 37.4 L #) The BNF put in an FA at 19394 today #) we pointed out this zone of 19376 holding sellers yesterday #) Volume imbalance of the move is to 18778 F now
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————–– #) Break of 20250 triggered massive changes in structure and even the previous day buyers at 19960- 19985 were swept away in the down auction. of 04/03. #) Pull back high of the day profile of 5th March is at 20312 which is short term resistance below 20740 now. #) The Previous FA point in BNF is at 19883F . #) Anomalies in the auction of 04/03 is at 20112 #) Big Volume aggressive Sellers seen at 19576 , 19496 and 19376 in the afternoon of 09/03.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 19122 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 19122 then it should move to 19001 and 18904 and finally 18778 . Sl for this view is 19240
Hypo2) If BNF auctions above 19240 then it can move to 19372 and 19482 . Sl for this view is at 19126 |