Levels and Plan for 12th Feb

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 08/02)

(On spot prices)

A close above 8636 should negate some weakness during the  week and set the market up for a 8751 spot visit during the week.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a 2 way auction which closed at vwap

#) vwap of the day was at 8658 with volume of 92.8 L.

#) Sellers were seen getting active around 8670 levels as happened on tuesday too

#) The NF has managed to close the gap left behind by the profile of 09/02

#) A move above current day high should set up an easy 40 point move to 8733 and possibly 8772

#) However failure at these levels can invite 8550 again

#) Profile of 30/01 confirms what we stated based on the 28/01 profile that the up auction is moving into a sideways mode and price adjustments.We looks forward to the anomaly adjustments noted below.

#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 .

#) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan.

#) All anomalies pointed out in previous posts have been repaired

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8696 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions below 8660  then shorts should push the auction down to 8624 again. A move below 8624 will bring 8570/ 8550 quickly. Sl for this view is 8696

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8696 then it will move  to 8733 and 8773.  Sl for this view will be 8665.

BankNifty FEB F :

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 08/02)

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we close above 19150 spot. Even then it has to still negotiate supply around the 19280- 19380 spot zone.

Friday low of 18740 is support followed by 18200-18250 right below it. A move below 18575 spot should set up an easy 350 point trade to 18210 spot.( day low of 10/02 was 18226 spot)

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was a normal distribution  which closed at vwap

#) vwap was at 19067 today with volumes of 26.8 L

#) Profile shows a prominent POC at 19050 which should trigger the next round of imbalance from here

#) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F

#) today’s profile projects 19242 short term in the BNF ( high of 19170 on 11/02)  as long as we stay above 18740 F now

#) The profile of 30/01  left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F

#) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256.

#) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610

#) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19115 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above  19115  then it will move to 19214 and 19362  . Sl for this view is 19055

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19044   then it can move to 18860  and 18735  .  Sl for this view is at 19115 now