Levels and Plan for 13th Feb

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 08/02)

(On spot prices)

A close above 8636 should negate some weakness during the  week and set the market up for a 8751 spot visit during the week.

(update 12/02)

Spot hit 8732 today and likely to target 8840 spot in the coming week. Chances of a new month high in Feb are very high if we cross over 8840.Our target is at 9035 before the month closes.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile showed a dip in the morning which set up a long trade which took the market higher

#) vwap of the day was at 8674 with volume of 122.8 L.

#) Sellers were seen getting absorbed around 8626- 8644  levels and they will continue as important ref areas in the days to come

#) The expected move above day high to 8772 materialised fully

#) A move above current day high should set up an easy 40 point move to 8733 and possibly 8772

#) Profile has an anomaly at 8726 which is new support tomorrow to keep the trend up.

#) The NF finished as a neutral extreme and is a buy on a pullback now till 8644 F holds

#) If the NF dips in the morning and finds buyers at 8726 then likely to finish at 8823 F tom.

#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 .

#) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan.

#) All anomalies pointed out in previous posts have been repaired

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8726 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8726  then longs  should push the auction to 8772 and 8823  again. This hypo works well on a dip in morning

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below  8716 then it will move  to 8882 and below 8682 to 8633..  Sl for this view will be 8725.

BankNifty FEB F :

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 08/02)

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we close above 19150 spot. Even then it has to still negotiate supply around the 19280- 19380 spot zone.

Friday low of 18740 is support followed by 18200-18250 right below it. A move below 18575 spot should set up an easy 350 point trade to 18210 spot.( day low of 10/02 was 18226 spot)

(Update 12/02)

BN came close to 19150 spot close today. Supply during the sell off was built at 19320- 19350 Spot zone and we wait to see the auction there.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was 2 different trend types rolled into 1 session.

#) vwap was at 18974 today with volumes of 37.2 L

#) The prominent POC of 19050 played a role in selling the market off to last week’s lows around 18820 before short covering began and took the market past 19150.

# Profile was a neutral extreme

#) 19390 F is the objective of the imbalance in BNF

#) Anomalies mentioned below become price objectives if supply crossed next week.

#) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F

#) today’s profile projects 19242 short term in the BNF ( high of 19170 on 11/02)  as long as we stay above 18740 F now

#) The profile of 30/01  left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F

#) The profile of 03/02 shows anomaly at 19768

#) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256.

#) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610

#) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19135 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above  19135  then it will move to 19284 and 19362  . Sl for this view is 19055. Prefer to take this hypo on dip

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19134   then it can move to 19050  and 18835  .  Sl for this view is at 19195 .