The Nifty attempted a breakout before running into renewed selling at higher prices but managed to close above bracket highs
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Nifty NOV F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points . In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.. Short Term : (On spot prices) The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot . This region is also now new support over the short term. The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index. Resistance likely to play out first near 8380 and if crossed near 8544-8580 spot. Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions : (based on Fut prices)
#) Imbalance target of the move is now 8492 and if 8495 crossed then 8574 F. Support at 8325 F now #) Today’s profile chart shows an attempted drive up which met with responsive selling at higher levels #) The business area 8410- 8325 of the past few days was violated and the Nifty closed above bracket highs #) vwap placed at 8427 today #) The range of the Move seems to be settling down now between 8260- 8514 F. Cmp 8418 NF #) Failed auction seen at 7752 F on 18/10. Hence the IPM off 7752 is a strong move as FA point was not visited. #) We see buying excess at 8232 on 31/10 and at 8122 seen on 30/11. Both these points are supports for the short term trader. #) Pull back low was at 8311 against the pull back low if 8182 seen on 30/10 #) Auction is now past the IPM stage and onto Step2 of the SteidlMayer distribution model
Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo1 ) If NF holds 8408 at the Open tomorrow then it will test 8444 supply again and longs can be initiated as long as 8408 holds with sl of 8399. Above 8448 F the NF will rise to 8492-8495. Sl for these new longs abv 8448 will be 8425. Hypo2 ) If the auction goes below 8399 then shorts with a sl of 8419 should bring 8371 and 8357 quickly. BankNifty NOV F : |
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680
Short term : (based on spot prices) Support for the BN spot is now firmly at 15910- 16000 up from the 15100 spot previous.For the coming week the auction at 17230 spot will be watched for signs of momentum change.
Observations in Today’s session : (based on Fut prices)
#) Imbalance target of the move is now 17740 and if 17740 crossed then 17960F. Support at 17520 F now #) The profile showed strong buyers at 17540 who managed to close the index higher #) The day auctioned above the spike high of yesterday and bias was bullish. #) vwap of the day was at 17644 #) Pull back low was 17024 on 31/10 and found new buyers there on 3/11 . 17024- 17040 is now a huge support for the BNF. # Buying excess visible at 16856 F on 31/10 and value was created higher. Hypothesis : ( Based on Futures) Hypo1) IF BNF stays above 17666 then it will retest 17740 . Sl for this view is 17601. Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 17599 then it will test the zone of 17520 again. Sl for this move will be 17670. |