The Nifty trended down on the last day of the week and finished at weekly and session lows eliminating all gains from the previous week
Nifty July F :
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range building volume. This zone forms the base of the move we may see in the NF.
Short term :
Sellers seen at 7812 NF. Trend remains down below till 7685 F is not taken out on closing basis. Short term downside now opens to 7182 on a move below Friday’s low of 7466 F
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Friday’s notes :
1) 7555 is the reference point for the early morning auction. If we go below then the NF will check for unfinished business at today’s lows of 7486. The actual support is at 7469 F.
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Observations in Friday’s session :
NF July : https://www.dropbox.com/s/mkglnyes0fdsstz/OF_30min.png
1) Trend day down which closed at session lows
2) Pull back high of the trend day was at 7555 which will have an impact on any pull back from the lows
3) Buyers seen at the first dip to 7485 but sellers adjusted quickly at 7555 F and below
4) 7585 F in the early part of the session has some long inventory.
Hypothesis for Monday :
Hypo 1 : An open above trend day low of 7466 followed by signs of buying above 7485 will mean a move to 7520 first where some buying attempts were made on friday but failed. That 35 point move to 7520 can be traded from 7486 with sl below 7465
Hypo 2: Above 7522 buyers gain more strength towards pull back high of 7555 and a possible 7570/ 7585 where old buyers exist. This 7570- 7585 zone (if we get there) will be an important level for the entire coming week. Liquidation here by longs can drive the index down again from this point. Watch orderf low here.
Hypo3 : Forced liquidation occurs below a 7466 – 7450 kind of open and the market drives lower to 7371 intra .
BankNifty July F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
Friday May16th huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
The updated auction of the JulyF is here : http://prntscr.com/3wrs9g
Short Term :
BNF has closed at an Important daily support today at 14760. There is weakness below 14930 and levels of 14418 are next.
Observations in Friday’s session :
BNF July : https://www.dropbox.com/s/2yja0qtjufigowe/OF_BNF_30.png
1) Trend day down . We spoke of 14418 below 14930 on thursday and the market did 14460 by close about 530 points.
2) New sellers seen entering around 14850
3) sellers also seen at 14625 and 14785 .
Hypothesis for Monday :
Hypo1 : 14460 low of the trend day is the ref line early in the session . If we open above 14460 then we go to check for business at 14625.
Hypo 2 : Further buying seen above 14630 can take the BNF up to 14785 and 14850 which will be the zone where the seller will actively assert himself. This zone (14785-14840) has importance all week.
Hypo3 : An open below 14460 will put 14346 and 14063 immediately in play.
P.S : Hypos are given in order of importance.