After the Imbalance seen from budget day the markets moved back to balance today creating a gaussian profile in the process. Stage is now set for the next leg of the move
Nifty July F :
Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
The Friday May 16th range of 7639- 7182 looks like a completed bell curve now as the market has successfully auctioned out the entire range, building volume. This zone forms the base of the move we may see in the NF.
Short term :
Sellers seen at 7812 NF. Trend remains down below till 7685 F is not taken out on closing basis. Short term downside looks arrested for the time being as we did not seen huge selling below 7466.
7265- 7685 range expected till expiry. We will narrow it down as expiry nears.
Observations in Monday’s session :
NF July : https://www.dropbox.com/s/mkglnyes0fdsstz/OF_30min.png
1) balanced gaussian distribution with vwap at 7475 and value areas at 7490-7475-7466
2) Day showed buyers defending levels of 7466 and below with strong buying.
Hypothesis for Tuesday :
Hypo1 : If we stay above 7496 in the morning session then longs can be taken for 7520 and 7565 with stops below 7465.Above 7575 NF should climb a further 50 points to 7625.
Hypo2 : If we move below 7448 then shorts gain a huge edge and NF can go down to 7385. Sl for this trade will be 7471.
BankNifty July F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term :
Friday May16th huge range of 15888- 14418 June F provides a background to the entire moves we may see in the BNF for some time.
The updated auction of the JulyF is here : http://prntscr.com/3wrs9g
Short Term :
Sellers showed up at 15725 and broke an important support near 15900. Seller is in control till BNF does not cross above 14852.
Observations in Monday’s session :
BNF July : https://www.dropbox.com/s/2yja0qtjufigowe/OF_BNF_30.png
1) balanced profile with vwap at 14537 and value area of 14592- 14560- 14496
Hypothesis for Tuesday :
Hypo1 : Hypo2 from yesterday above 14630 has a good chance to work out tomorrow as the BNF repeatedly tested that level today . targets for that move above 14630 are 14785 and 14851 with stops below 14585.
Hypo2 : Below 14630 the BNF will stay in the range till 14460 with a confirmed break below 14455 producing 14182 and 13960