Day 9 of the series was again and Inside Day but showed the market’s willingness to hold VAL despite an early attack. Buyers are responsing now 3 days from 8110- 8130 levels.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
Nifty May F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8050- 9119 zone for the rest of this year. (We are revising to 8050 about 150 points lower based on March data) .
Weekly levels :
(first updated 09/05)
Bias Neutral – Buy dips/ sell rises : (On spot prices)
Last week the auction centered around the previous POC weekly of 8229 spot and the Nifty moved up n down from there and closed near it on friday.
The range done was 8355- 7997.
For this week the profile suggests a continuation in the range and it will be unlikely for the Nifty to move out if 8355- 7997 in the coming sessions.
We see 8233 spot pushing the index upto 8335 spot again where we expect the seller to come back.
Lower down 8180 spot is support for the index and a trip below would mean 8040 back in play.
Bias is neutral for the coming week- Buy Dips and Sell Rises within the Ref area marked above.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) NF profile was an inside day. #) vwap of the day was at 8202 again with volume of 140.1 L (Less than the Previous session) #) Profile went upto 8250 where the previous day POC was located. #) We believe that a cross of 8275 tomorrow should give a good break higher to 8361. #) Larger LVN’s of the week at 8343 and 8092 are getting respected as the market oscillates between them. #) Composite of the Month of May is forming a Bell ( Buy Low/ sell High) #) Value areas are at 8224-8200-8180 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 8275 and 8201 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) The breakout ref lines above can create fast moves in up/ down direction #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ———————————————————————————————————— #) Previous selling prints at 8279 #) Profile shows selling prints at 8328 on 12/05 #) Minor excess noted at 8020 on 07/05 #) Profile of 04/05 rejected and new excess from 8344. #) Excess at 8404 on 27/04 #) Excess at 8456 on 24/04 #) Excess at 8678 on 20/04 #) Day saw sellers at 8774 today ( 17/04/15) #) Day saw sellers active at 8836 on ( 16/04/15)
Hypothesis :
( Based on May Futures)
K.R.A is 8222 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8222 then it can move to 8275 and 8331. . Sl for this view 8193
Hypo 2) If NF auctions below 8193 it can drop to 8162 and 8092 . Sl for this view is 8227.
BankNifty May F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :( updated 22/03)
Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb. There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.
Weekly levels :
(first updated 09/05)
(based on spot prices)
Last week a strong seller emerged at 18580 spot and dropped the index below 18150 listed support and bias point to 17246 new year lows. We are playing a test of that 18150 spot broken area but we believe the seller will step in once the re test is done.
Ahead of that 18150 spot supply zone we see a line of supply at 17980 spot. The index can show short covering only if 18160 is crossed again.
Support during the week is at 17700
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile showed a stronger buying response from the lows and again closed higher. #) vwap was at 18002 with volumes of 36.8 L (Less than the previous session) #)Profile shows strong responsive buying from 17785 #) This profile should continue higher to 18275 and 18549 if it manages to auction abv day highs tom #) Noted LVN at 18275 F and BNF is within striking distance of taking it down which would be positive into next week. #) Value areas are at 18066-17970-17922 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 18300 and 18026 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) The breakout ref lines above can create fast moves in up/ down direction
————————————————————————————————————— #)The BNF profile showed buyers at 17520 on 08/05 #) Pull Back high of 06/05 at 18070. #) Excess at 18520 on 06/05 #) excess at 18750 on 17/04
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18188 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If BNF auctions above 18188 then it should attempt to move to 18256 and 18322. Sl for this view is 18020
Hypo 2 ) If BNF auctions below 18085 then it should drop to 17940 and 17784 . Sl for this view is 18185 |