Levels and Plan for 16th April

Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 12/04)

(On spot prices)

Last week we had 3 days of volume over the supply of 8643- 8672 and the markets put in 8787 by close – From last week view 2 –  “However if we do see a big volume day at this zone then we are open to an immediate 8796 spot, about 120- 140 points above this supply.A further move to 8912 on a closing above 8790 is what the charts tell us, should 8643- 8672 be broken to the upside”

Price wise for the coming week we maintain 8912 and 9065 as the objectives of the move above 8796 spot and and any dips to 8672 to be used as buying opportunity with stops below 8580 spot. We now remain positive for 9065 Nifty as long as the index is trading abv 8580 spot.

First support for the coming week is  at 8730 now followed closely by the 8672- 8688 band of new support. We would like to be buying dips as long as these 2 supports hold if the market goes . However as maintained last week if 8580 spot breaks then 9065 Nifty is off.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a neutral extreme day .

#) vwap of the day was at 8839 with volume of 94.4 L  (More than Previous session)

#) Buyers seen at 8820 and further up at 8856 on Mon  liquidated in the second half of the session today

#) Profile closed  below VAL for the first time today

#) We have 3 ref areas above at 8882-8892 and 8938 as noted below. Ref area and big support for this week is at 8710- 8727 F.

#) We would like to see a move to 8830 to check for business before a further auction. A move up above 8830 F can push it to 8872 F again.

#) Possibility of a DD within the lower range below VAL remains a possibility tom.

#) Value areas are at 8870-8848- 8832 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) Buying was observed at 8622 and 8727 on 07/04.

# buying/ short covering noted  at 8610

#) FA was visited at 8716 and once again saw strong buying.

#) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03

#) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03.

#) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03.

#) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F

#) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Apr Futures) 

K.R.A is 8832  ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1) If NF auctions below  8832    then shorts  should move it  to 8792  F and 8764. Sl for this view is 8859.

Hypo2) If NF auctions above  8864   then it should move to 8890  and  8921    . Sl for this view is 8826.

BankNifty APR F :

 Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb.  There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 12/04)

(based on spot prices)

Last week we mentioned 18800 spot as supply and the BN attempted to go above and closed there at supply for the week.

For the coming week we see 18680 as immediate support followed by 18598 . The upmove of last week loses momentum below 18598 and a confirmed break of 18400 spot should lead to long unwinding again.

On the upper side 19200- 19274 is a supply point followed by 19370.

(update 15/04) 

Watch support at 18598 mentioned above in BN in coming days . A bounce up higher unable to get past 18820-18860  spot can result in more pressure on 18590 opening up the possibility of a visit to 18100 in the coming week.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was 2 different auctions today- a failed upper drive and a spike down incomplete at close.

#) Day type was a neutral extreme if we consider day as once auction leaving possibility open for a 2 day DD tomorrow.

#) vwap was at 18985 with volumes of  33.1 L (More than the previous session)

#) Profile closed at lows in a spike and should visit up near 18800 or even 18910 before resuming down.

#) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike  dt 15/04.

#) Buyers were seen at 18745 near the close.

#) Value areas are at 18913-19037-19099 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/

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#) The failed auction at 18800 on 24/03 was successfully crossed today

#) We see  a failed auction at 19056 on 20/03

#) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction seen since 20000 levels

#) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03

#) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404.

#) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone

#) excess also at 19860 on 09/03

#) excess also at 20904 on 04/03

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 18795 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above 18795 then it should move to 18840 and 18895. Sl for this view is 18725

Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18725 then it should move to 18660 and 18575. Sl for this view is 18799.