Levels and Plan for 16th feb

Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

At the end of Dec 2014 we had reason to believe the the long auction in the medium term which started at 5920 early in 2014 may be consolidating for some time. However the Jan auction shows that the move has not terminated yet and we still looking at 10400- 10800 targets through the coming year as long as we stay above 7200 now.

Weekly levels  : 

(first updated 15/02)

(On spot prices)

Last week we spoke about a close above 8636 essential to negate weakness and the Nifty responded by going 185 points higher to hit 8822 just short of the 8840 cash supply. This week we watch 8842 to confirm our projected view for 9035 cash.

8755 spot and 8713 spot will be the support band this week with bulls having to protect 8713 at all costs on all dips.

We will update this para as the week progresses.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile bounced strongly off Vah as it met buyers

#) vwap of the day was at 8810 with volume of 110 L.

#) Profile has an anomaly at 8726 which is new support to keep the trend up. However a revisit at 8726 F is pending.

#) Another anomaly at 8796 on 13/02

#) Profile finished in Imbalance which looks set to target 8913 F at least once on Mon

#) Below 8756 long liquidation setup in play for 8726 and 8696

#) Scene of the crime is at 8958 from 30/01 where the seller first appeared. ON 05/02 we saw aggressive selling happening in the rise from 8830 to 8890 .

#) Sellers were seen getting absorbed around 8626- 8644  levels and they will continue as important ref areas in the days to come

#) Profile of 28/01 shows excess at the highs of 9064 which could signal an end to the up auction from 15th Jan.

#) All anomalies pointed out in previous posts have been repaired

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8868 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8868  then longs  should push the auction to 8913 F. Sl for this view to play out fully is at 8836.

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below  8835 then it will move  to 8804 and 8796. Sl for this view will be 8865.

BankNifty FEB F :

Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

Weekly levels :

(first updated 15/02)

(based on spot prices)

For the coming week upsides in BN possibly only if we cross 19385 decisively. We mentioned 19380 as supply all last week and BN went to 19441 but did not close above 19380.

We see 19660 and 19784 as immediate supply uring the week. However a cross above 19785 should ensure 19970 quickly ( 185 points)

First support lower during the week is at 19240 .

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile shows a failed auction at 19221 on 13/02

#) vwap was at 19376 today with volumes of 31.2 L

# Profile was a neutral extreme again and is a decisive buy above day high only

#) The imbalance above day high can continue t 19668

#) Failed auction noted on 12/02 is on day T+1 .

#) a buying tail was seen on 10/02 at 18288 and should indicate the end of the down auction from 21130F

#) The profile of 30/01  left behind anomalies at 20560 and 20368 in the Feb F

#) The profile of 03/02 shows anomaly at 19768

#) VPOC of 30/01 placed at 20256.

#) VPOC of 3/02 is placed at 19610

#) Selling tails seen at 21130 on 28/01

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19549 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above  19550  then it will move to 19647  . Sl for this view is 19447

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19444   then it can move to 19348  and 19296  .  Sl for this view is at 19545 .