Yesterday’s late afternoon move picked up steam early in the day as late longs panicked and closed positions leading to a drop of 117 points H- L. However there were signs already that buyers were picking up at the lows and at one point the bounce measured 80 points off lows > We maintain consolidation as next likely move as discussed yesterday
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
Nifty APR F  |
| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels : (first updated 12/04)
(On spot prices)
Last week we had 3 days of volume over the supply of 8643- 8672 and the markets put in 8787 by close – From last week view 2 – “However if we do see a big volume day at this zone then we are open to an immediate 8796 spot, about 120- 140 points above this supply.A further move to 8912 on a closing above 8790 is what the charts tell us, should 8643- 8672 be broken to the upside”
Price wise for the coming week we maintain 8912 and 9065 as the objectives of the move above 8796 spot and and any dips to 8672 to be used as buying opportunity with stops below 8580 spot. We now remain positive for 9065 Nifty as long as the index is trading abv 8580 spot.
First support for the coming week is at 8730 now followed closely by the 8672- 8688 band of new support. We would like to be buying dips as long as these 2 supports hold if the market goes . However as maintained last week if 8580 spot breaks then 9065 Nifty is off.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a trend day which auctioned below neutral extreme lows early in the session #) Day saw sellers active at 8742 and 8752 ( 16/04/15) #) vwap of the day was at 8721 with volume of 137 L (More than Previous session) #) Buyers seen at 8820 and further up at 8856 on Mon liquidated in the second half of the session today #) Profile closed below VAL for the second time today this series. . #) Pull back high of the day is 8749 and resistance into tomorrow session #) However we also see a nice buying response from 8671. #) Profile likely to stay 8671- 8749 range tomorrow. #) Value areas are at 8740-8718-8696 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ———————————————————————————————————— #) Buying was observed at 8622 on 07/04. # buying/ short covering noted at 8610 #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Apr Futures)
K.R.A is 8744 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions below 8744 then shorts should move it to 8707 F and 8671. Sl for this view is 8777.
Hypo2) If NF auctions above 8790 then it should move to 8830 and 8853 . Sl for this view is 8741.
BankNifty APR F :
|
| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Weekly levels : (first updated 12/04)
(based on spot prices)
Last week we mentioned 18800 spot as supply and the BN attempted to go above and closed there at supply for the week.
For the coming week we see 18680 as immediate support followed by 18598 . The upmove of last week loses momentum below 18598 and a confirmed break of 18400 spot should lead to long unwinding again.
On the upper side 19200- 19274 is a supply point followed by 19370.
(update 15/04)
Watch support at 18598 mentioned above in BN in coming days . A bounce up higher unable to get past 18820-18860 spot can result in more pressure on 18590 opening up the possibility of a visit to 18100 in the coming week.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile was well balanced and gaussian into the close #) Day type was a normal day established in the IB with OTF at open and response at lows. #) vwap was at 18640 with volumes of 35.1 L (More than the previous session) #) Profile closed at vwap and near day center in value #) aggressive seller seen holding 18740 #) Value areas are at 18696-18600-18576 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike dt 15/04. #) Buying tail at 17955 can potentially mean an end to the down auction seen since 20000 levels #) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18775 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions above 18795 then it should move to 18840 and 18895. Sl for this view is 18725
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions below 18725 then it should move to 18660 and 18575. Sl for this view is 18799 |