Day 8 of the series attempted a Move higher but did not do a good job of crossing the sell zone but still finished higher. The Answer to the second question of the auction ” Is it doing a Good Job going Up? ” was a simple NO.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
| Nifty May F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :
Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future. At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8050- 9119 zone for the rest of this year. (We are revising to 8050 about 150 points lower based on March data) .
Weekly levels :
We have done a review on weekly charts at : http://vtrender.com/nifty-weekly-view-spot-prices/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) NF profile was a 3-1-3 profile with extremes not holding up . #) vwap of the day was at 8257 with volume of 88.9 L (Less than the Previous session) #) Value areas are at 8268-8256-8244 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 8286 and 8232 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) The breakout ref lines above can create fast moves in up/ down direction #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ———————————————————————————————————— #) Profile shows selling prints at 8328 on 12/05 #) Minor excess noted at 8020 on 07/05 #) Profile of 04/05 rejected and new excess from 8344. #) Sellers seen at 8320-8334 and 8304 and 8294 to 8280 and 8224 early in day on 06/05 #) Excess at 8404 on 27/04 #) Excess at 8456 on 24/04 #) Excess at 8678 on 20/04 #) Day saw sellers at 8774 today ( 17/04/15) #) Day saw sellers active at 8836 on ( 16/04/15)
Hypothesis :
( Based on May Futures)
K.R.A is 8286 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8286 then it can move to 8314 and 8351. . Sl for this view 8251
Hypo 2) If NF auctions below 8230 it can drop to 8203 and 8159 . Sl for this view is 8287.
BankNifty May F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Medium Term- 20520 is now showing excess and the BankNifty has not been able to stay above the 19200- 19300 zone which hold vwaps for Jan and Feb. There has been some serious selling seen in the BankNifty at the 19370 spot levels in March . This makes us revise our opinion of the 18400 spot holding and we should see the index drifting down below to 17600- 17700 spot levels over the coming sessions. We will update our view to the potential next drop to 15900/ 15600 zone and finally 15100 once we see an auction at 17600 levels.
Weekly levels :
For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at : http://vtrender.com/nifty-weekly-view-spot-prices/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a bell shaped curve with a prominent POC at 18190 #) vwap was at 18180 with volumes of 23.8 L (Less than the previous session) #) Profile shows a buying response at 18076. #) Value areas are at 18216-18180-18144 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Ref lines are at 18226 and 18093 for tomorrow’s session for breakout moves. #) The breakout ref lines above can create fast moves in up/ down direction
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#)Profile shows strong responsive buying from 17785 #)The BNF profile showed buyers at 17520 on 08/05 #) Pull Back high of 06/05 at 18070. #) Excess at 18520 on 06/05 #) excess at 18750 on 17/04
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18225 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1 ) If BNF auctions above 18301 then it should attempt to move to 18393 and 18447. Sl for this view is 18225
Hypo 2 ) If BNF auctions below 18220 then it should drop to 18093 . Sl for this view is 18296 |