The markets were closed today, but even if they were not, it would have been a low volume grinding trading day with big money choosing to stay away ahead of the event and speculative positions built with hedges for the Friday Open in anticipation. In Wednesday’s session we saw strong dip buyers emerge at 7852 and at one point it looked like it would scale to 7946 and a possible 8003, but then we noted aggressive selling coming at higher prices and buyers chose not to counter in the last hour making it a quiet close into the holiday and the FED event.
At the time of writing this post, the FED event news is still due and we won’t put a hypo out today but still look at what the market did on Wednesday.
Nifty Sept F :
Background / Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: We have done a review on weekly charts at: http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-14-sept-18-sept15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF tested the day KRA and rose higher to finish at the edge of the 3-day composite profile
#) vwap of the day was at 7887 with volume of 112.9 in a trade which worked a 7919-7852 range of 67 points
#) Day POC was at 7894 levels and in the upper half
#) The NF tried to break away from the 3-day balance, but late selling/ profit booking brought it to finish at the edge
#) The auction was wanting to get into imbalance regardless of the news flow
#) The OrderFlow shows buyers coming back between 7801-7825 in previous sessions and we saw more of them at 7850- 60 today.
#) Gap between profiles is 7944- 7961.
#) Maintain – //Weekly Auction shows a balance between 7875 and 7685 and we should see more volatility in this range.We are open to 8003 and 8096 F above 7892 F on short covering.//
#) Value areas are at 7908-7893-7878– for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit :http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
#) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players.
Hypothesis :
(based on Sept F)
K.R.A is 7920 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
We are not placing hypos for the trade tomorrow, but an open above 8003 or below 7789 will be an outlier. Then we will be on the lookout for either 8096 in the day or 7678.
BankNifty Sept F :
Background/ Previous Auctions :
Weekly levels: For Banknifty we have updated a spot auction view with a chart at :http://vtrender.com/nifty-bn-weekly-view-spot-for-14-sept-18-sept15/
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions:
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was an irregular double distribution, not of the textbook kind.
#) vwap was at 16907 with volumes of 34.4 L in a trade which worked a 17020-16780 range of 220 points.
#) day POC was at 16950 levels
#)OrderFlow shows buying at the lows as the marked dipped
#) Gap between profiles is 17025- 17090 and the BNF stopped at 17020 on Wednesday
#) Value areas are at 16992-16947-16857 for bias. . For using value areas effectively visit: http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/
Hypothesis :
( Based on Sept Futures)
K.R.A is 17030 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
We ae not releasing hypos for tomorrow. As with the Nifty, an open above 17247 or below 16553 is an outlier. In that case, we look for 17482 or 16265 next.
we will use emerging order flow to trade the in between points. So my advice would be to stay logged in to the trading room as much as possible.
All Hypos to be traded with the mentioned stops and mechanically. If in the trading room, can use the Order Flow to qualify the entry and exit for the hypos.