Levels and Plan for 19th Jan

 Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

The Monthly charts are now projecting 8673 spot and 8825 as possible targets of the move above 8410- 8445 spot support band on closing basis. The Momentum will remain up this month till the spot closes below 8410 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

For the coming week, support rests at 8436- 8452. A Move below 8450 spot on volumes can lead to another potential long liquidation and drop the index to 8290 spot during the week.

Levels we will watching during the week on downsides are 8450, 8370- 8380 and 8310- 20.

Upside resistance likely to play at 8581 and 8626 during the week

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Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a normal variation day which remained inside Thursday’s day range

#) Volume was 100 L  much lower than the 208L seen on Thursday

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01

#) The profile is now into  step 3 in the SteidlMayer Process and searching for another balance

#) OrderFlow showed buyers coming back at 8470- 80 levels and sellers adding back at 8340- 8350 late in the session

#) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.

#) vwap of the day was at 8520 well above the  8488 of yesterday

#) The profile’s imabalance objective above 8564 is at 8635/ 8656 levels.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8565 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8566 then it will move  to 8610 and 8636 . Sl for this view is at 8512.

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below  8521  then it will move  to 8481 and 8465   Sl for this view will be 8563.

BankNifty JAN F :

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

The monthly charts project 19800 and 20020 on the BN index by Jan end as long as price stays above 19050 on daily closing basis

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

19102 and 18920 are 2 supports for the index in the coming week.  If these get broken then buyers should re- emerge around the 18790- 18820 region again.

19370- 19410 are likely to provide supply in the coming week on any upward thrusts.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was a normal day which remained confined with the range of thursday

#) Volumes were at 25.3 L compared to the  52 L of thursday

#) vwap was at 19280 again the same as thursday

#) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19401 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above 19410  then it will hit 19520/ 19593  . Sl for this view is 19315.

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19265   then it can move to 19205 and 19120.  Sl for this view is at 19344 now