The triple inside day broke away as expected but unfortunately most of the movement away was lost in a gap up even as the profile shaped up as a P ( short covering)
| Nifty DEC F |
| Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.
The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 450 points. In the current context the drop from the last Nifty spot swing high of 8180 to the recent swing low of 7723 made on 17/10 equals 457 points. Conversely the Nifty has run up straight 2 times for 936 and 925 points . The upmove from 7723 is now 893 points.
There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point for the future.
Short Term :
(On spot prices) The marked has managed to stay above the longer time frame supply at 7920- 7940 spot. This region is also now new support over the short term. The previous swing high of 8180 spot has excess now and is also a higher support for the index.
Our yearly target of 8580 spot has been hit and we wait out the Nifty’s reaction at this price point over the next 2- 3 days. Quite likely we may see a reaction down upto 8452 or even a sideways move for 8- 12 sessions before a Santa rally around Dec 18- 20.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF broke out of the triple inside day leaving excess at 8576. #) The auction of the day was a P shaped profile driven by short covering #) 8576 excess is now first line of support for the index # Bracket high of 8516-8492 should cushion any immediate downfalls.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1 ) If the auction goes below 8635 in the IB then NF can drop to 8611 and 8575 is 8610 is broken. Sl for this view is 8649
Hypo2 ) If NF auctions above 8649 then it can rise upto 8668 again. Sl for this view is 8629.
BankNifty DEC F : |
| Background/ Previous Auctions : Medium Term- Friday May 16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. Our 2014 target of 17680 has been met. Larger Imbalance objective above 17680 works out to 18700- 18934.
Short term :
(based on spot prices)
For the coming week the auction has support at 18153 Resistance to the upmove will be at 18700.
Observations in Today’s session :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The BNF profile was a trend day closing at the higher extreme #) vwap of the day was at 18616 and the ull back low was at 18643. #) excess seen at 18240 #) 18530 and 18240 are short term supports on the intra day scale.
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
Hypo1) If BNF auctions below 18550 it can go to 18507 and 18408 . Sl for this view is 18620
Hypo2) IF BNF auctions above 18650 it will go to 18735 and 18764. Sl for this view is below 18608. |