Expiry day was quiet on the surface and Sept Nifty saw a range of 32 points only but EOD data showed massive changes happening below the surface. Check charts posted on the home page under “data that we watch”
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Nifty Sept F |
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Background / Previous Auctions : Medium Term : We have maintained from Friday May 16th that the range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) seen on that day forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16) ( Friday 8th Aug – low was 7540 and close of 7568) The largest drop seen on May 16 th was 432 points and the rally from 5110 has never been penetrated by a drop of more than 430 points . Targets for the Upmove remain 7900 spot (achieved) and 8300/ 8581 in the medium term. Support at 7500/ 7100 spot. Our Profile studies indicate 11600 as a long term target on the Nifty in 2016-17 provided 6300 holds through 2015 Short term : We are now seeing a two sided auction as we come into expiry week with buyers and sellers almost equal in number and volumes. This is confirmation of Step 2 of the Steidlmayer Distribution discussed in earlier pages here. On the Monthly Time frame we see September Nifty having supports at 7835 and 7706 on spot levels and targets of 8068 spot and 8226 spot. Support for the current week has moved upto 7950 Sept F from the 7835 F in the auction of last week. Resistance will be seen at 8087- 8103 F Observations in Thursday’s session : https://www.dropbox.com/s/6h6tlot01rnzmqk/sept_nf.png?dl=0 1) A normal distribution curve with Mean, Median, Mode and 7992- 7994. 2) vwap of the day was at 7994 3) Day type was a normal day and the market closed at seller’s extreme in an expiry environment 4) Failed auction noted at 7955 on 27/08 and thursday was T+1 5) Sellers from 25/08 were put under test after buyers were seen on 26th Afternoon. Hypothesis : Hypo1 ) We will be looking at longs above 8007 tomorrow for 8039/ 8071 with stops below 7980 Hypo2 ) Below 7975 the NF would trade to FA point of 7955 and supports of 7943. BankNifty Sept F : |
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Background/ Previous Auctions :
Medium Term- Friday May16th range of 15730- 14430 in spot provides a backdrop to the moves we may see in the BN for some time. There is a 1000 point move in BN when it trades above 15800 spot Our bias is positive above 15100 spot, and as long as the BN stays above 15100 we will trade towards 17680 . Short Term : On the Monthly time frame support for Sept BankNifty is at 15580 spot followed by 15200- 15100 mentioned above. First target would be 16335 followed by 16795.
For the week support moves to 15683 sept F. Immediate levels to watch above for OrderFlow are 15912 and 16027. Thursday Observations : https://www.dropbox.com/s/lg4vnpn8e09hgy8/sept_bnf.png?dl=0 1) A balanced auction with value which went sideways on the day. 2) vwap of the day placed at 15817 in almost the same place as yesterday. 3) Auction filling up the low volume drive from 25/08- Once the level of 15960 is hit that part of the auction should complete Hypothesis : Hypo1) A move above 15660 will be confirmation of the continuity we want to see and BNF can do 15790/ 15920 if that happens Hypo2 )Below 15660 the BNF will go to retest 15560/ 15452. |