Levels and Plan for 20th Jan

 Medium Term : On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a  range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it  forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event.The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).

The Monthly charts are now projecting 8673 spot and 8825 as possible targets of the move above 8410- 8445 spot support band on closing basis. The Momentum will remain up this month till the spot closes below 8410 in the cash index. Last month’s highs were at 8626

There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.

Weekly levels  : 

(On spot prices)

For the coming week, support rests at 8436- 8452. A Move below 8450 spot on volumes can lead to another potential long liquidation and drop the index to 8290 spot during the week.

Levels we will watching during the week on downsides are 8450, 8370- 8380 and 8310- 20.

Upside resistance likely to play at 8581 and 8626 during the week

.

Observations in Today’s/ Previous  sessions :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The NF profile was a neutral center day which auctioned majorly just above the 2 day range of last week.

#) Volume was 75 L  much lower than the 100L seen on Friday

#) vwap of the day was at 8577 well above the  8520 of yesterday

#) There is a failed auction noted at the lows of 8543 today- 19/01

#) There is another  failed auction noted at the lows of 8427 on 15/01

#) The profile of today shows a prominent POC at 8574 which should be used by the market to assess fair value in coming sessions.

#) OrderFlow showed buyers coming early in the day but sellers adding back at 8577- 8380 during the session

#) The excess of 6th Jan is now replaced by a gap from 8348 to 8427 levels.

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 8565 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1 ) If NF auctions above 8566 then it will move  to 8610 and 8636 . Sl for this view is at 8543 .

Hypo2 ) If NF auctions below  8543  then it will move  to 8498 and 8465   Sl for this view will be 8563.

BankNifty JAN F :

 Medium Term-  

18400 BN spot will be the key level to watch in BN over the coming weeks on a closing basis. As long as price stays above 18400 weekly closing the BN can make a move to 23500 levels. Highest volume traded in BN in 2014 was at 15100- 15200 spot levels. This 15100 will be the second layer of support in BN below 18400.

The monthly charts project 19800 and 20020 on the BN index by Jan end as long as price stays above 19050 on daily closing basis

Weekly levels :

(based on spot prices)

19102 and 18920 are 2 supports for the index in the coming week.  If these get broken then buyers should re- emerge around the 18790- 18820 region again.

19370- 19410 are likely to provide supply in the coming week on any upward thrusts.

Observations in Today’s session :

(based on Fut prices)

#) The BNF profile was mostly  a normal day which auctioned majorly in the single prints created by the 6th Jan profile

#) Volumes were at 20.3 L compared to the  25 L of Friday

#) vwap was at 19428 against  the 19277 seen on thursday/friday

#) A gap remains between 19115 and 18769 F

Hypothesis  :

( Based on Futures) 

K.R.A is 19401 ( K.R.A= key reference area)

Hypo1)  IF BNF auctions above 19410  then it will hit 19520/ 19593  . Sl for this view is 19365.

Hypo2) If BNF auctions below 19325   then it can move to 19245 and 19170.  Sl for this view is at 19384 now