We discussed our changed bias in the Sunday review – the one which pointed to 8342 – 8321 spot as the imbalance objective of the move seen since last wednesday. The markets dived down 197 points today as the selling accelerated. Towards the close there was emotional selling and the market may have gotten more short than usual but a rise will be used to add new shorts.
In the Paras below you will find my daily plan for the day at the bottom with weekly support and resistance levels updated on the spot and the medium term auction. It’s a view on 3 different timeframes. Auction Market Theory tells us where to trade. The Order Flow will show us when to trade.
| Nifty APR F
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| Background / Previous Auctions :Medium Term: On Friday May 16th 2014, we saw a range of 7560- 7125 (spot prices) and we believe it forms the backdrop of the moves we may see in the Nifty for a considerable amount of time, as it was a 5 sigma event. The auction remains positive as long as we close above the highs of that day (May16).There was a failed auction noted at the lows on 17/10 at 7723 which is a reference point and support line for the future.
At 9119 the market may have put in a top for the year and should roughly consolidate in the 8200- 9119 zone for the rest of this year.
Weekly levels : (first updated 19/04) review :
(On spot prices)
Last week the expected move to price objective of 8912 fell short by 67 points as supply came at the 8850 mark in a market which rallied for 11 sessions holding VAH and an MO of 80 plus. Something had to give and the sellers forced the late longs off the table quickly.
For the coming week we will find the Nifty trading close to the 8560-8580 support band early in the week but at risk of more longs being pushed out on rallies to 8685 spot.
Trading below the 8685 spot mark this week should point to new supply coming into the index . The sellers should maintain control till 8735 spot is not taken out convincingly and on closing basis.
Staying below 8635 spot the Nifty has a destination trade at 8534 in the coming days . An upmove during the week which meets new sellers at 8685 spot should point to 8342-8321 spot as the final objective of the move these next few weeks with stops on a closing above 8740 spot.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices)
#) The NF profile was a trend day which closed at session lows #) Day saw sellers at 8570 and 8558-8552 ( 20/04/15) #) vwap of the day was at 8550 with volume of 149.1 L (More than Previous session) #) Profile closed below VAL for the fourth straight day this series. #) 8434 vpoc of 27/03 and 8358 F are the 2 ref lines below and 8560/ 8570 will be resistance all week #) Selling was emotional into the close and a trip higher to 8510 and possibly 8560 can be seen in the coming session #) However if selling increases below vpoc 8434 then NF can drop to 8348. #) Value areas are at 8636-8576-8520 for the session tomorrow. For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ #) Discl – When we mention Buyers/ Sellers we point to and infer aggressive players. ———————————————————————————————————— #) Day saw sellers at 8660 today ( 17/04/15) #) Pull back high of the day 17/04 is 8749 and resistance into any pullbacks #) Day saw sellers active at 8742 and 8752 on ( 16/04/15) #) Profile showed sellers coming at 8882 on 19/03 #) Excess seen at 8938 to 8898 on 13/03. #) Scene of the crime was at 8892 F on 13/03. #) Day Profile of 09/03 shows excess from 9000 F #) Excess also at 9250 on 4/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Apr Futures)
K.R.A is 8434 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) If NF auctions above 8470 then longs should move it to 8508 F and possibly 8560 above 8510 . Sl for this view is 8434.
Hypo2) If NF auctions below 8434 then it should move to 8370 and 8348 . Sl for this view is 8471.
BankNifty APR F :
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| Background/ Previous Auctions :
( updated 22/03)
Weekly levels : (first updated 19/04)
(based on spot prices)
Last week the fast move below 18800 on that failed upper move brought pressure on recent longs to close positions and the BN went below second support mentioned for the week at 18598 quickly.
For the current week there is more evidence of supply building up at 18724 and 18810 . We can see all up moves to these points in the coming week meeting up more supply.
Support for the index is at 18232 and at 18131 right below it. If 18800 is not taken out on closing basis the destination trade in the coming weeks is at 17900 spot.
Observations in Today’s/ Previous sessions :
(based on Fut prices) #) The BNF profile again showed sellers at 18510- 18530 who drove the index down from the highs of VAH. #) Day type was a neutral day with buyers in the morning sessions and sellers dominating the afternoon. #) vwap was at 18357 with volumes of 40.5 L (More than the previous session) #) Aggressive selling seen at 18510- 18530 #) Day lows were near the 17955 buying point seen on 26/03 #) Value areas are at 18546-18426-18222 . For using value areas effectively visit : http://vtrender.com/popular-market-profile-trading-setups/ ————————————————————————————————————— #) aggressive seller seen holding 18740 on 16/04 #) we see aggressive selling at 19090 in today’s profile and 18885 also showed minor sellers in the spike dt 15/04. #) Anomalies at 19404 and 19206 on 19/03 #) Big volume selling seen on 13/03 again at 19404. #) Excess seen at 19656 on 13/03 reconfirming the previous sellers in this zone #) excess also at 19860 on 09/03 #) excess also at 20904 on 04/03
Hypothesis :
( Based on Futures)
K.R.A is 18185 ( K.R.A= key reference area)
Hypo1) IF BNF auctions below 18145 then it should move to 18052 and 17955. Sl for this view is 18310
Hypo 2) If BNF auctions above 18355 then it should move to 18410 and 18475. Sl for this view is 18269 |